Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
306 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO
NEAR LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE THERE WAS CLEARING
EARLIER THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CONVERGENCE LINE WHICH IS ROUGHLY
LOCATED FROM JACKSON TO MEMPHIS. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
JACKSON AND MEMPHIS AROUND 12 AM-2 AM. BY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD
BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURE BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FIRST FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MIDDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS REGION AS A RESULT. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS INDICATING A BAND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE CWA.
MODELS INDICATING BAND WILL DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND LIKELY BEFORE IT REACHES THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AS THE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST OCCUR. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE
COOL START MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS IS MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NE PRODUCING MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KMEM AND KMKL. VFR CEILINGS
WILL BE PREVALENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
PRODUCING IFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
FOG MAINLY AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL BE 6-10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

AC3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  58  74  49  69 /  30  10  10   0
MKL  57  72  47  66 /  30  10  20   0
JBR  55  72  45  67 /  20  20  20   0
TUP  62  76  52  70 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-111200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
308 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
ABOUT 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KRM