Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
214 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
5H HEIGHTS AND WATER VAPOR INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW IS JUST E
OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK IN WAKE OF LOW AND MSTR IS
STILL WELL INTO THE WRN AREAS. SUBTLE HINT OF LINGERING MINOR
SHRTWV TROF TO THE W...7H-5H LR/S NEAR 7.5 C/KM AND MST UPSLOPE
FLOW FAVOR MTNS STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. HAVE LEFT 30
PCT IN THE FAR E REMAINDER OF TODAY WHERE RICHEST LOW LEVEL MSTR
IS FOUND AND ISOLD POPS IN THE MTNS WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES
SHOW CU/TCU DEVELOPING. SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ENSURE DEEP LOW
LEVEL MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH M60-U60 DWPNTS POSSIBLE ACRS
THE PB BY 12Z SUNDAY. MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK NW AND
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE THAT ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND THEN DRIFT E-SE
INTO ADJACENT PLAINS. AS STORMS DRIFT FROM MTNS INTO PLAINS THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL BE WELL MIXED AND HOT. T/TD SPREADS NEAR 30F
WILL FAVOR GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY SE NM/UPPER TRANS PECOS. LACK
OF IDENTIFIABLE SHRTWV TROF WILL LIMIT COVERAGE TO SLIGHT CHC-CHC
WHICH IS IN FCST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED. IT WILL BE WARMER
ALL AREAS. PATTERN IS SIMILAR MONDAY EXCEPT THAT SFC PATTERN IS
BETTER ORGANIZED UNDERNEATH NW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
MAY NEAR THE NRN CWFA. 9H-85H THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EC NM
PLAINS/TX STATE-LINE INTO PB/BIG COUNTRY ALONG/NEAR SAID BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING.
SUFFICIENT CONVECTION MAY HELP BOUNDARY SAG FARTHER S INTO PB. 12Z
MET MOS INDICATES 30 POPS AND MAKES GOOD SENSE WITH THE MODEL QPF
AND PATTERN ITSELF. FCST HAS 30-40 PCT POPS BUT WILL MAKE SOME
CHANGES TO FIT CLOSER TO DESCRIBED BOUNDARY. STILL WARM/SEASONAL
ON MONDAY BUT CLOUDS COULD MAKE IT A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE N.
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N TUE AND DRY AIR PUSHES FARTHER E INTO SE NM
PLAINS/UPPER TRANS PECOS SO WARMER/DRIER. STORMS WILL BE MOST
FAVORED FROM DAVIS MTNS S-SEWD WHERE MSTR HOLDS. WED/THUR THERE IS
MORE OF A PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND WILL MOSTLY DOWNPLAY
PRECIP CHANCE AND KEEP TEMPS HOT... POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER FRI-
SAT WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS FAR SRN REACHES OF THE
LOWER TRANS PECOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  96  72  96  /  10  20  20  30
BIG SPRING TX              69  95  71  96  /  10  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                70  98  67  97  /  10  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  72  95  73  96  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  99  73  97  /  10  10  10  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  93  67  92  /  20  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   66  95  67  94  /  10  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   59  92  63  93  /  10  30  30  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  96  71  96  /  10  10  10  20
ODESSA TX                  71  98  73  96  /  10  10  10  20
WINK TX                    72  98  73  98  /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
206 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
206 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 /106 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS...BUT THESE COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SINCE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS STILL AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MONDAY...CHANCES WILL SPREAD
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THEN CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE REGION TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
413 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

NMZ027-028-152200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
313 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM
AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 23 MILES NORTH OF QUEEN AT
313 PM MDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3252 10486 3253 10485 3261 10485 3261 10484
      3249 10444 3216 10471 3229 10486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 304DEG 20KT 3249 10486