Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
645 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM INTEREST FOCUSES ON TSTMS AROUND MAF WHILE TSTMS NEAR FST
HAVE DISSIPATED. DESPITE L100 DEGREE TEMPS LOW LEVEL MSTR HAS HELD
IN AND THUS DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. STILL NOT CONVINCED A TSTM WILL
MOVE ACROSS MAF HOWEVER TSTMS TO THE SW HAVE PUSHED OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND TSTMS COULD FORM ALONG IT CLOSER TO MAF. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF TSTMS IN ALL TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KTS AROUND 03Z-05Z
MAF/FST BEFORE WANING TOWARD 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013/

UPDATE...
SEE PUBLIC DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
INCREASED QPF AND CLOUD GRIDS TONIGHT.

UPDATE PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 132 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT OVER THE AREA TODAY, AND
COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL STILL CARRY AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE THERE INTO THIS EVENING.  THE SAME WILL BE TRUE WEDNESDAY,
BUT SINCE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE STRONGER, THINK ONLY AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP.  THE HEAT WILL BE ON AS MORE LOCATIONS
AROUND THE AREA WILL BE 100 OR ABOVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW, WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, BUT MODELS
HAVE BEEN BOGUSLY ADVERTISING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO
IN ADVANCE WHICH HAVE NOT OCCURRED.  THEREFORE, HAVE GONE AT OR
ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE TROUBLESOME UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT IS THEN PROGGED TO RETROGRADE
FURTHER WEST INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CARVE
OUT A FAIRLY ANOMALOUS UA TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY EARLY
NEXT.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK, IF NOT A CHANCE OF RAIN.  HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY POPS IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST, YET.  BUT, WILL DEFINITELY KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
544 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-261200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
544 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 /444 PM MDT TUE JUN 25 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND OR DAMAGING WINDS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

TXZ081-260000-
BIG BEND AREA-
631 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
SOUTH CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL BREWSTER
COUNTY AT 631 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL...LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK
SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 2898 10320 2898 10324 2899 10329 2900 10329
      2900 10332 2902 10335 2901 10336 2902 10339
      2918 10331 2910 10303 2908 10307 2906 10308
      2904 10310 2903 10309 2898 10312 2897 10315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 294DEG 5KT 2906 10326

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
638 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

TXZ061-067-068-260015-
ECTOR-CRANE-WARD-
638 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CENTRAL ECTOR...NORTHEASTERN WARD AND NORTHERN CRANE COUNTIES UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PENWELL AT 638 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 10240 3180 10232 3143 10233 3142 10261
      3148 10298 3161 10288 3165 10275 3186 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 262DEG 4KT 3174 10260

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
641 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

TXZ081-260015-
BIG BEND AREA-
641 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 55
MPH WINDS AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 20 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PERSIMMON GAP OVER FARM TO MARKET ROAD 2627 OVER CENTRAL BREWSTER
COUNTY AT 641 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 2941 10305 2969 10310 2977 10274 2966 10271
      2963 10273 2960 10273 2959 10275 2959 10276
      2957 10276 2956 10277 2955 10277 2951 10280
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 246DEG 13KT 2957 10297

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