Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
138 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY, BUT IT IS NOT QUITE
AS STRONG DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS FLATTENED IT
SOMEWHAT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH
IS AIDING THE STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREAWIDE.  AT THE
SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW PERSISTS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL OVER THE REGION ON PERSISTENT
GUSTY, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.  EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN PROPAGATE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING.  SINCE INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA WILL BE
1500 TO 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR
30 TO 40 KT, AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 8 TO 9 C/KM, SOME OF THE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE.  WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN
THE HWO AND ZONE FORECAST.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT CONSIDERING THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A MORE
RAPID CLIP AND PWATS ARE DOWN A LITTLE, WILL JUST MENTION BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO.  HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS PROPAGATE
TONIGHT IS A BIT OF A QUANDARY SINCE A PRETTY STOUT CAP IS NOTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN, JUST LIKE YESTERDAY. BUT
THE FLOW ALOFT IS A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY AND SINCE SOME STORMS, OR
A CLUSTER OF STORMS, SENDS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EASTWARD, THINK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE APT TO DEVELOP IN THE AWAITING UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN.  HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
EASTWARD TONIGHT FOR SUCH A POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN A FLATTENED STATE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THOSE
DAYS, WHICH WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD IN THE EVENING.  HOW FAR EAST
THEY MOVE EACH EVENING CONTINUES TO BE A DILEMMA, BUT WILL BE BETTER
RESOLVED ON LATER SHIFTS.  THAT IS, HAVE BROUGHT CONVECTION TO THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATELINE FOR NOW.  ON TUESDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND SET UP SHOP OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS WILL PUT THE AREA
UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, A STIFLING CAP AND STIFLING HEAT.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEYOND TUESDAY, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO RECORD LEVELS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE
PLENTY HOT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  96  71  97  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              76  98  74  99  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                69 102  68 102  /  30  20  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  77  98  76  96  /  10   0  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  96  73  96  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  97  68  97  /  30  20  10  20
HOBBS NM                   67  94  67  95  /  40  10  20  30
MARFA TX                   63  89  61  90  /  20  30  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  72  97  /  20   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  75  96  73  97  /  20   0  10  10
WINK TX                    73 100  72 101  /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

70/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
125 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-221200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
125 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013 /1225 PM MDT FRI JUN 21 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND
THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS. GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 3 PM
CDT/2 PM MDT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1051 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             CARLSBAD                32.40N 104.24W
06/20/2013  E1.75 INCH       EDDY               NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL

0405 PM     HAIL             4 NW CARLSBAD           32.44N 104.28W
06/20/2013  E1.75 INCH       EDDY               NM   PUBLIC

0430 PM     HAIL             CARLSBAD                32.40N 104.24W
06/20/2013  E0.75 INCH       EDDY               NM   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT CARLSBAD FIRE STATION 1

0435 PM     HAIL             CARLSBAD                32.40N 104.24W
06/20/2013  E1.50 INCH       EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL COVERING GROUND IN SOUTH
            CARLSBAD.

0513 PM     HAIL             CARLSBAD                32.40N 104.24W
06/20/2013  E1.50 INCH       EDDY               NM   PUBLIC

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CARLSBAD                32.40N 104.24W
06/20/2013                   EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CURB TO CURB STREET FLOODING IN NORTHWEST CARLSBAD.

0550 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CARLSBAD                32.40N 104.24W
06/20/2013                   EDDY               NM   PUBLIC

            STREETS FLOODED TO TOP OF CURBS.

0610 PM     HAIL             5 E CARLSBAD            32.40N 104.15W
06/20/2013  E1.75 INCH       EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON HIGHWAY 62/180/

0627 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSW CARLSBAD          32.34N 104.27W
06/20/2013  M67.00 MPH       EDDY               NM   ASOS

0628 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW CARLSBAD          32.34N 104.25W
06/20/2013                   EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 POWER POLES SNAPPED NEAR GROUND AT HIGHWAY 62/180 AND W
            DERRICK ROAD JUST EAST OF AIRPORT. TIME ESTIMATED BASED
            ON ASOS GUST TIME.

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CARLSBAD                32.40N 104.24W
06/20/2013                   EDDY               NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER BREACHED A CANAL AND FLOODED 16 HOMES WITH 1 FOOT
            OF WATER

0713 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 SSW MCKITTRICK CANYO 31.83N 104.81W
06/20/2013  M62.00 MPH       CULBERSON          TX   ASOS

            GDP ASOS

&&

AKL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
324 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

TXZ058-074-212115-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
324 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND SOUTH CENTRAL REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 415
PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF BUFFALO TRAIL SCOUT
CAMP AT 324 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3087 10356 3058 10369 3074 10401 3094 10397
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 294DEG 9KT 3079 10387