Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
301 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER MEXICO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN EDGING NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST TEXAS
TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AS LEE TROUGHING ENHANCES
TO THE NORTH. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING AND
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO LOW 90S. SEVERAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS
AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAIN REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN EARLY MORNING
MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN...AS NOTED ON RADAR.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MAKE NOTE OF THIS IN THE HWO. ANY CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED SHORT- LIVED TORNADO.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT
MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS...KEEP STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS MAY HELP
TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW HOWEVER IF WE CAN GET A
WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING PEAK
HEATING...COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL THETA E AXIS...THEN ITS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH HIGHER READINGS IN THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  96  72  96  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  97  73  96  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                71 101  70 100  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  76  97  75  95  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  97  73  97  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  94  69  93  /  20  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   71  97  70  96  /  20  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   62  92  62  90  /  20  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  96  72  96  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  73  97  74  96  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73 100  73 100  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

27/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
303 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-202015-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
303 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 /203 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LAMESA...TO WINK...TO
FORT STOCKTON...TO TERLINGUA LINE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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