Alert archive / Texas / River Flood Warnings in 2013

River Flood Warning 2, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

June 13, 2013Presidio County, Texas

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this river flood warning at Jun 13, 2013, 9:04 PM CDT for Presidio County, Texas. It was in force for 15 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jun 13, 2013, 9:04 PM CDT (02:04 UTC)
Expired
Jun 14, 2013, 11:55 AM CDT
In force
15 hr
Issued by
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Flood severity
Moderate

County Presidio County, TX

The river

Written for the forecast point Rio Grande 5 miles SE of Presidio (PRDT2).

Action stage
8 ft
Minor stage
9 ft
Moderate stage
13 ft
Major stage
16 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

822 
WGUS44 KMAF 140204
FLWMAF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
904 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS... 

  RIO GRANDE BELOW PRESIDIO 5SE AFFECTING PRESIDIO COUNTY
  RIO GRANDE ABOVE PRESIDIO 6WNW AFFECTING PRESIDIO COUNTY
  RIO GRANDE AT LAJITAS 1WNW AFFECTING BREWSTER AND PRESIDIO COUNTIES
  RIO GRANDE AT JOHNSON RANCH AFFECTING BREWSTER COUNTY

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG BOTH SIDES OF THE RIO GRANDE 
FROM CANDELARIA DOWNSTREAM TO LAJITAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS HAS PUSHED THE RIO GRANDE INTO FLOOD STAGE IN THE VICINITY OF 
PRESIDIO.  IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL HAS LED TO FLOODING IN THE 
RIO CONCHOS AND ALAMITO CREEK WATERSHEDS...AND THIS WILL ONLY 
EXACERBATE FLOOD CONDITIONS ON THE RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT. 
 
AN UPDATED RIVER FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY 
FRIDAY MORNING. 
 
RIVER LEVELS ARE HIGH.  RANCHERS AND FARMERS SHOULD MOVE LIVESTOCK 
AND MACHINERY AWAY FROM FLOOD PRONE AREAS IF TIME PERMITS.
 
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AREA. IF YOU 
ENCOUNTER A FLOODED STRETCH OF ROADWAY... DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS IT.
YOUR VEHICLE COULD BE SWEPT DOWNSTREAM IN RUSHING FLOODWATERS.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO OUR LOCAL WEBPAGE LOCATED
AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND ...SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER 
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TXC377-141804-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FL.W.0002.130614T0204Z-130614T2201Z/
/PRDT2.2.ER.130614T0032Z.130614T0600Z.130614T1001Z.NO/
904 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE RIO GRANDE BELOW PRESIDIO 5SE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.4 FEET (3.8 METERS). 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET (2.7 METERS). 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.1 FEET (4.0 
  METERS) BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET (4.0 METERS)...MODERATE OVERBANK FLOODING 
  BEGINS.  FARMLAND NEAR THE RIVER WILL BE INUNDATED. WATER COULD 
  BEGIN AFFECTING LOW LYING AREAS OF HIGHWAY 170.

&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  PRESIDIO 5SE    9.0  9.0   12.4   THU  8 PM  13.1   7.0   3.8   2.7

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  PRESIDIO 5SE    2.7  2.7    3.8   THU  8 PM   4.0   2.1   1.2   0.8

$$

TXC377-141804-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FL.W.0003.130614T0204Z-130614T2030Z/
/PIOT2.1.ER.130613T2353Z.130614T0600Z.130614T0830Z.NO/
904 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE RIO GRANDE ABOVE PRESIDIO 6WNW.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.7 FEET (3.6 METERS). 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET (2.7 METERS). 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.1 FEET (3.7 
  METERS) BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET (3.7 METERS)...WATER REACHES THE BASE OF THE 
  LEVEE.  MINOR DAMAGE TO FLOOD PLAIN BETWEEN LEVEES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  PRESIDIO 6WNW   6.0  9.0   11.7   THU  8 PM  12.1   4.7   4.3   4.2

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  PRESIDIO 6WNW   1.8  2.7    3.6   THU  8 PM   3.7   1.4   1.3   1.3

$$

TXC043-377-141804-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FL.W.0004.130614T1516Z-130616T0758Z/
/TGAT2.1.ER.130614T1516Z.130614T1800Z.130614T1958Z.UU/
904 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE RIO GRANDE AT LAJITAS 1WNW.
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING 
  IS CANCELLED.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET (4.0 METERS). 
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET (5.2 METERS)...THE PARK JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE
  GAGE COMPLETELY FLOODS.

&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  LAJITAS 1WNW    7.0 13.0      M   M           4.2   9.6  15.8   7.3

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  LAJITAS 1WNW    2.1  4.0      M   M           1.3   2.9   4.8   2.2

$$

TXC043-141804-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FL.W.0005.130615T1522Z-130616T0812Z/
/TELT2.2.ER.130615T1522Z.130615T1800Z.130615T2012Z.NO/
904 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE RIO GRANDE AT JOHNSON RANCH.
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING
  IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.5 FEET (1.7 METERS). 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET (4.6 METERS). 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.8 FEET (5.4 METERS) BY SATURDAY EARLY 
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET (5.8 METERS)...MAJOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS.
  FLOODING BEGINS TO OCCUR UPSTREAM IN COTTONWOOD CAMPGROUNDS AT 
  CASTOLON...AS STAGES AT EACH LOCATION ARE PRACTICALLY SYNONYMOUS.  
  MODERATE LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS AT THE GAGE SITE...BUT NO DAMAGE 
  OCCURS.  THE GAGE IS INACCESSIBLE...AS RIVER ROAD IS IMPASSABLE AT 
  SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  JOHNSON RANCH  12.0 15.0    5.5   THU  8 PM   5.3   5.3   5.3   5.3

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  JOHNSON RANCH   3.7  4.6    1.7   THU  8 PM   1.6   1.6   1.6   1.6

$$
3 follow-up statements
211 
WGUS84 KMAF 140242
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
942 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS...
 
  RIO GRANDE BELOW PRESIDIO 5SE AFFECTING PRESIDIO COUNTY 
  RIO GRANDE AT LAJITAS 1WNW AFFECTING BREWSTER AND PRESIDIO COUNTIES 
  RIO GRANDE ABOVE PRESIDIO 6WNW AFFECTING PRESIDIO COUNTY 
  RIO GRANDE AT JOHNSON RANCH AFFECTING BREWSTER COUNTY 

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG BOTH SIDES OF THE RIO GRANDE 
FROM CANDELARIA DOWNSTREAM TO LAJITAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS HAS PUSHED THE RIO GRANDE INTO FLOOD STAGE IN THE VICINITY OF 
PRESIDIO.  IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL HAS LED TO FLOODING IN THE 
RIO CONCHOS AND ALAMITO CREEK WATERSHEDS...AND THIS WILL ONLY 
EXACERBATE FLOOD CONDITIONS ON THE RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT. 
 
AN UPDATED RIVER FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY 
FRIDAY MORNING. 
 
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AREA. IF YOU 
ENCOUNTER A FLOODED STRETCH OF ROADWAY... DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS IT.
YOUR VEHICLE COULD BE SWEPT DOWNSTREAM IN RUSHING FLOODWATERS.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO OUR LOCAL WEBPAGE LOCATED
AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND ...SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER 
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THE LATEST TEXAS ROAD CONDITIONS... PLEASE CALL THE TEXAS 
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AT 1 800 452 9292

&&

TXC377-141842-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130614T2139Z/
/PRDT2.2.ER.130614T0032Z.130614T0600Z.130614T0939Z.NO/
942 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIO GRANDE BELOW PRESIDIO 5SE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.8 FEET (4.2 METERS). 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET (2.7 METERS). 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 15.1 FEET (4.6 
  METERS) BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET (4.9 METERS)...MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS AND 
  LEVEES NEAR REDFORD MAY BE DAMAGED. SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF 
  FARMLAND WILL BE INDUNDATED. HIGHWAY 170 MAY ALSO FLOOD.
THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 13.9 FEET ON JUL 28 2004.
&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  PRESIDIO 5SE    9.0  9.0   13.8   THU  9 PM  15.1   5.1   4.0   3.1

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  PRESIDIO 5SE    2.7  2.7    4.2   THU  9 PM   4.6   1.6   1.2   0.9

$$

TXC377-141842-
/O.CON.KMAF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130614T2030Z/
/PIOT2.1.ER.130613T2353Z.130614T0600Z.130614T0830Z.NO/
942 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIO GRANDE ABOVE PRESIDIO 6WNW.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.0 FEET (3.3 METERS). 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET (2.7 METERS). 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.1 FEET (3.7 
  METERS) BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET (3.7 METERS)...WATER REACHES THE BASE OF THE 
  LEVEE.  MINOR DAMAGE TO FLOOD PLAIN BETWEEN LEVEES IS POSSIBLE.
THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 10.3 FEET ON SEP 17 2011.
&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  PRESIDIO 6WNW   6.0  9.0   11.0   THU  9 PM  12.1   4.7   4.3   4.2

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  PRESIDIO 6WNW   1.8  2.7    3.3   THU  9 PM   3.7   1.4   1.3   1.3

$$

TXC043-377-141842-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FL.W.0004.130614T1543Z-130616T0751Z/
/TGAT2.1.ER.130614T1543Z.130614T1800Z.130614T1951Z.UU/
942 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIO GRANDE AT LAJITAS 1WNW.
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING 
  IS CANCELLED.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET (4.0 METERS). 
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET (5.2 METERS)...THE PARK JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE
  GAGE COMPLETELY FLOODS.

&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  LAJITAS 1WNW    7.0 13.0      M   M           2.6   6.9  16.7   4.8

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  LAJITAS 1WNW    2.1  4.0      M   M           0.8   2.1   5.1   1.5

$$

TXC043-141842-
/O.CON.KMAF.FL.W.0005.130615T1522Z-130616T0812Z/
/TELT2.2.ER.130615T1522Z.130615T1800Z.130615T2012Z.NO/
942 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIO GRANDE AT JOHNSON RANCH.
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING
  IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.5 FEET (1.7 METERS). 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET (4.6 METERS). 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.8 FEET (5.4 METERS) BY SATURDAY EARLY 
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET (5.8 METERS)...MAJOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS.
  FLOODING BEGINS TO OCCUR UPSTREAM IN COTTONWOOD CAMPGROUNDS AT 
  CASTOLON...AS STAGES AT EACH LOCATION ARE PRACTICALLY SYNONYMOUS.  
  MODERATE LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS AT THE GAGE SITE...BUT NO DAMAGE 
  OCCURS.  THE GAGE IS INACCESSIBLE...AS RIVER ROAD IS IMPASSABLE AT 
  SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.1 FEET ON JUL 26 2004.
&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  JOHNSON RANCH  12.0 15.0    5.5   THU  9 PM   5.3   5.3   5.3   5.3

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  JOHNSON RANCH   3.7  4.6    1.7   THU  9 PM   1.6   1.6   1.6   1.6

$$
717 
WGUS84 KMAF 140402
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1102 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS...
 
  RIO GRANDE BELOW PRESIDIO 5SE AFFECTING PRESIDIO COUNTY 
  RIO GRANDE ABOVE PRESIDIO 6WNW AFFECTING PRESIDIO COUNTY 
  RIO GRANDE AT LAJITAS 1WNW AFFECTING BREWSTER AND PRESIDIO COUNTIES 
  RIO GRANDE AT JOHNSON RANCH AFFECTING BREWSTER COUNTY 

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG BOTH SIDES OF THE RIO GRANDE 
FROM CANDELARIA DOWNSTREAM TO LAJITAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS HAS PUSHED THE RIO GRANDE INTO FLOOD STAGE IN THE VICINITY OF 
PRESIDIO.  IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL HAS LED TO FLOODING IN THE 
RIO CONCHOS AND ALAMITO CREEK WATERSHEDS...AND THIS WILL ONLY 
EXACERBATE FLOOD CONDITIONS ON THE RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT. 
 
AN UPDATED RIVER FORECAST MAY BE ISSUED FRIDAY MORNING IS FLOODING
IS STILL OCCURRING. 

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AREA. IF YOU 
ENCOUNTER A FLOODED STRETCH OF ROADWAY... DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS IT.
YOUR VEHICLE COULD BE SWEPT DOWNSTREAM IN RUSHING FLOODWATERS.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO OUR LOCAL WEBPAGE LOCATED
AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND ...SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER 
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THE LATEST TEXAS ROAD CONDITIONS... PLEASE CALL THE TEXAS 
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AT 1 800 452 9292

&&

TXC377-142002-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130614T2149Z/
/PRDT2.2.ER.130614T0032Z.130614T0230Z.130614T0949Z.NO/
1102 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIO GRANDE BELOW PRESIDIO 5SE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.4 FEET (4.1 METERS). 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET (2.7 METERS). 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET (4.0 METERS)...MODERATE OVERBANK FLOODING 
  BEGINS.  FARMLAND NEAR THE RIVER WILL BE INUNDATED. WATER COULD 
  BEGIN AFFECTING LOW LYING AREAS OF HIGHWAY 170.

THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.6 FEET ON SEP 29 2012.

&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  PRESIDIO 5SE    9.0  9.0   13.4   THU 10 PM  12.7   6.9   5.0   3.3

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  PRESIDIO 5SE    2.7  2.7    4.1   THU 10 PM   3.9   2.1   1.5   1.0

$$

TXC377-141635-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130614T1635Z/
/PIOT2.1.ER.130613T2353Z.130614T0030Z.130614T0435Z.NO/
1102 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIO GRANDE ABOVE PRESIDIO 6WNW.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.7 FEET (2.9 METERS). 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND NONFLOOD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET (2.7 METERS). 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET (2.7 METERS)...WATER BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE 
  FLOOD PLAIN BETWEEN THE LEVEES.  

THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 9.8 FEET ON SEP 29 2012.

&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  PRESIDIO 6WNW   6.0  9.0    9.7   THU 10 PM   8.3   4.8   4.4   4.2

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  PRESIDIO 6WNW   1.8  2.7    2.9   THU 10 PM   2.5   1.5   1.3   1.3

$$

TXC043-377-142002-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FL.W.0004.130614T1355Z-130616T0728Z/
/TGAT2.1.ER.130614T1355Z.130614T1800Z.130614T1928Z.UU/
1102 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIO GRANDE AT LAJITAS 1WNW.
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING 
  IS CANCELLED.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET (4.0 METERS). 

&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  LAJITAS 1WNW    7.0 13.0      M   M           8.4  12.1  14.9   7.2

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  LAJITAS 1WNW    2.1  4.0      M   M           2.6   3.7   4.5   2.2

$$

TXC043-142002-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FL.W.0005.130615T1348Z-130616T0737Z/
/TELT2.1.ER.130615T1348Z.130615T1800Z.130615T1937Z.NO/
1102 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIO GRANDE AT JOHNSON RANCH.
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING
  IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.4 FEET (1.7 METERS). 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET (4.6 METERS). 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 16.9 FEET (5.1 METERS) BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET (4.6 METERS)...FLOOD STAGE IS REACHED.  
  MODERATE LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS.  ROADS THAT LEAD TO COTTONWOOD 
  CAMPGROUND AND RIVER ROAD MAY FLOOD.  STAGES ARE PRACTICALLY 
  SYNONYMOUS WITH THE GAGE AT COTTONWOOD CAMPGROUNDS AT CASTOLON 
  (CSST2)...AND THEREFORE REPRESENT THE REACH FROM SANTA ELENA CANYON
  THROUGH COTTONWOOD CAMPGROUNDS...WHERE DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.  CATTLE 
  ALSO GRAZE IN THE LOWLANDS...AND MAY BE THREATENED.

THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.1 FEET ON JUL 26 2004.

&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  JOHNSON RANCH  12.0 15.0    5.4   THU 10 PM   5.3  11.0   6.2   6.7

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  JOHNSON RANCH   3.7  4.6    1.7   THU 10 PM   1.6   3.4   1.9   2.0

$$
969 
WGUS84 KMAF 141655
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1155 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
TEXAS...
 
  RIO GRANDE BELOW PRESIDIO 5SE AFFECTING PRESIDIO COUNTY
  RIO GRANDE AT LAJITAS 1WNW AFFECTING BREWSTER AND PRESIDIO 
  COUNTIES
  RIO GRANDE AT JOHNSON RANCH AFFECTING BREWSTER COUNTY
...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS...
 
  RIO GRANDE  PRESIDIO 6WNW AFFECTING PRESIDIO COUNTY

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG BOTH SIDES OF THE RIO 
GRANDE FROM CANDELARIA DOWNSTREAM TO LAJITAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO LED TO FLOODING ON THE 
RIO CONCHOS AND ALAMITO CREEK WATERSHEDS...WHICH ONLY ONLY 
EXACERBATED THE FLOODING.  AS A RESULT...SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE 
RIO GRANDE PUSHED THE RIVER INTO FLOOD AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS 
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF PRESIDIO.  CURRENTLY...THE RIO 
GRANDE IS BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT RIVER LEVELS ARE STILL ELEVATED. 
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG THE RIVER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
COULD RESULT IN THE RIVER RISING BACK INTO FLOOD.

OTHERWISE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT.
 

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AREA. IF YOU 
ENCOUNTER A FLOODED STRETCH OF ROADWAY... DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS IT.
YOUR VEHICLE COULD BE SWEPT DOWNSTREAM IN RUSHING FLOODWATERS.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO OUR LOCAL WEBPAGE LOCATED
AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND ...SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER 
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THE LATEST TEXAS ROAD CONDITIONS... PLEASE CALL THE TEXAS 
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AT 1 800 452 9292

&&

TXC377-141725-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130614T2149Z/
/PRDT2.2.ER.130614T0032Z.130614T0230Z.130614T0503Z.NO/
1155 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE RIO GRANDE BELOW PRESIDIO 5SE.
* AT 11AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET (2.3 METERS). 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  0:03 AM FRIDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET (2.7 METERS). 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 3.3 FEET (1.0 METERS)
  BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET (2.7 METERS)...MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING 
  AREAS AROUND THE RIVER BEGINS. 
THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 9.0 FEET ON SEP 25 2010.
&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   SAT   SAT
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  PRESIDIO 5SE    9.0  9.0    7.7   FRI 11 AM   8.0   5.5   4.4   3.3

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   SAT   SAT
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  PRESIDIO 5SE    2.7  2.7    2.3   FRI 11 AM   2.4   1.7   1.3   1.0

$$

TXC377-141725-
/O.EXP.KMAF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130614T1635Z/
/PIOT2.1.ER.130613T2353Z.130614T0030Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1155 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR
  THE RIO GRANDE ABOVE PRESIDIO 6WNW.
* AT 11AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET (2.4 METERS). 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET (2.7 METERS). 
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET (2.1 METERS)...MODERATE OVERBANK FLOODING 
  BETWEEN THE LEVEES BEGINS.  NO OTHER DAMAGE IS EXPECTED.
THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 9.8 FEET ON SEP 29 2012.
&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   SAT   SAT
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  PRESIDIO 6WNW   6.0  9.0    8.0   FRI 11 AM   7.6   6.1   5.0   4.2

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   SAT   SAT
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  PRESIDIO 6WNW   1.8  2.7    2.4   FRI 11 AM   2.3   1.9   1.5   1.3

$$

TXC043-377-141725-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130616T0728Z/
/TGAT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1155 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE RIO GRANDE AT LAJITAS 1WNW.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET (4.0 METERS). 
* IMPACT...AT 11.5 FEET (3.5 METERS)...WATER APPROACHES THE FENCED IN 
  PARK AREA AT 11.5 FEET.

&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   SAT   SAT
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  LAJITAS 1WNW    7.0 13.0      M   M          11.1  10.7  11.2  11.6

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   SAT   SAT
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  LAJITAS 1WNW    2.1  4.0      M   M           3.4   3.3   3.4   3.5

$$

TXC043-141725-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130616T0737Z/
/TELT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1155 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE RIO GRANDE AT JOHNSON RANCH.
* AT 11AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET (2.3 METERS). 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET (4.6 METERS). 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 12.9 FEET (3.9
  METERS) TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   SAT   SAT
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  JOHNSON RANCH  12.0 15.0    7.5   FRI 11 AM   7.1   5.8   6.5  11.5

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):

                   BF  FLD  OBSERVED                  FORECAST
LOCATION          STG  STG  STAGE   DAY  TIME   FRI   FRI   SAT   SAT
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  JOHNSON RANCH   3.7  4.6    2.3   FRI 11 AM   2.2   1.8   2.0   3.5

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jun 13, 6:30 PM CDT, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 13, 6:30 PM CDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STORMS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS
WITH MAF HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY
TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED SO INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...

AN UNSETTLED AND (HOPEFULLY) WET PATTERN IS SHAPING UP OVER WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGH A
LARGE PORTION OF THE TROPOSPHERE IS BEING BROUGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COAHUILA. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE, PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED, APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
CHIHUAHUA SOUTHWEST OF PRESIDIO. ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING, DEEP
LAYER LIFT INDUCED BY THESE DISTURBANCES HAS ACTED ON THIS MOISTURE
WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SOUTH ACROSS THE MARFA PLAINS AND THE BIG BEND.
BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ARE WEAK, AND SO
WE'RE NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, BECAUSE THE CELLS ARE MOVING SLOWLY AND WITHIN A RICH
AIRMASS, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH MID EVENING,
ESPECIALLY IN ARROYOS, DRAWS, LOW WATER CROSSINGS, ETC. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS GREATEST.

FRIDAY COULD BE THE WETTEST DAY WE'VE SEEN IN A LONG WHILE. WE
EXPECT AN AXIS OF MOISTURE TO BE ROUGHLY ALONG A SANDERSON TO
MIDLAND TO LOVINGTON LINE BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WITHIN THIS AXIS COULD BE OVER 4 CM, OR ABOUT AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE
OF CLIMO THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR, TALL/SKINNY CAPE,
AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ALL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION.
PLUS IT WON'T TAKE A LOT OF HEATING TO KICK THINGS OFF IN THE MORNING.
WHILE THE OVERALL SETUP FAVORS HEAVY RAINFALL, WE DON'T HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FOCUS.
SHOULD WE GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
FOCUS, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE IN THE EVENING AS BOTH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DIURNAL HEATING
WANE. THERE'LL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEATING SATURDAY FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WE SHOULD START TO DRY
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THICKNESSES INCREASE
SUNDAY AND THIS IN TURN WILL RESULT IN WARMER HIGHS, WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS.
COULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREAS WHERE HEAVIER RAINS
OCCURRED, BUT IT COULD ALSO BE THE GROUND WILL SOAK UP WHATEVER
MOISTURE WE MIGHT GET. MODELS ARE HINTING AT MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND IN TURN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OF SORTS LOOKS TO ENTER WEST TEXAS SOMETIME LATE MONDAY.
TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES RIGHT NOW TO CONTEMPLATE AND SO WE'LL LEAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...THIS COULD BE INCREASED AS WE
GAIN CONFIDENCE IN HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE.

GETTING INTO THE WEEDS...A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z NAM WAS
USED FOR THE POP/QPF FORECASTS. THE SREF APPEARS TO SUPPORT THIS
SOMEWHAT, BUT BECAUSE THE SREF IS AN ENSEMBLE, POP/QPF FORECASTS
ARE UNDERDISPERSIVE AND GET SMEARED OUT OVER A LARGER AREA. ALL
OTHER FORECAST GRIDS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AND ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE
NEEDED. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE EVOLUTION OF MCS ACTIVITY AND
RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND POP/QPF FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD BY LATER SHIFTS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

99
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 13, 2:26 PM CDT, 6 hours 38 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
226 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-141930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
226 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 /126 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WITH MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 13, 8:27 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningMAFPresidio6 hr
Jun 13, 9:04 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningMAFPresidio15 hr
Jun 13, 9:04 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningMAFBrewster, Presidio15 hr
Jun 13, 9:04 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningMAFBrewster15 hr
Jun 13, 9:17 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMAFMidland3 hr
Jun 14, 12:02 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMAFBrewster, Pecos, Terrell3 hr
Jun 14, 4:08 AM CDTFlash Flood WatchMAFBorden, Crane, Dawson, Ector, Glasscock, Howard and 8 more24 hr
Jun 14, 3:41 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMAFJeff Davis3 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Texas, 2013Every river flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.