Red Flag Warning 38, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A DRYLINE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME
SEVERE...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE EAST OF ALL SITES AND WILL THUS NOT MENTION IN ANY TAFS.

HENNIG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE RETREATING DRYLINE
THIS EVENING AND COULD INTENSIFY AND EXPAND CONVECTION THIS
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN.
ANY STORMS DEVELOPING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN 0 TO 6 KILOMETER SHEAR VALUES OF 35 KNOTS AND CAPES
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY WEST TEXAS AND LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

SWIFTER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD PUSH THE
DRYLINE WEDNESDAY TOWARD THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN SO THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TOWARD THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. NORMALLY THE CONVECTION WOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE DRYLINE BACK WEST TOWARD
THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SEVERE STORMS COULD REFORM ON THIS RETREATING DRYLINE
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN WEDNESDAY EVENING SO LEFT
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE WEATHER GRID.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL GO DRY AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. NEXT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE NEXT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY DUE TO A COLD FRONT WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM POST FRONTAL
UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW.

FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE DRYLINE. SO FAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS HAVE NOT SEEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOP DUE TO THE
RETREATING DRYLINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE REGION. STILL EXPECT THE
DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 115 SHORTLY ALONG WITH 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASING TO 20
MPH OR MORE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. DRYLINE SHOULD RETREAT FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT TOWARD
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH GOOD RH RECOVERY EXCEPT
ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO
ZONE 115.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
EJECT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD PUSH THE DRYLINE TOWARD THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
INTENSIFYING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS DRYLINE WILL
RESULT IN VERY DRY AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CONDITONS ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS...UPPER TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR THESE REASONS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED
FOR THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
     NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS
     AREA...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...REEVES
     COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
     CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.

&&

10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-291930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013 /125 PM MDT TUE MAY 28 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF A CAPROCK NEW MEXICO TO BIG BEND LINE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
EAST OF A LAMESA TO LOWER TRANS PECOS LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND