Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

853 
WWUS84 KMAF 161954
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL
OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN
CORRIDOR AND THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN FOR VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER...VERY LOW RH'S AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT/NOON CDT TO
9 PM MDT/10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND VAN HORN CORRIDOR FOR VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER...SINGLE DIGIT RH'S AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
20 MPH OR GREATER...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG A LINE FROM SEMINOLE TO
ANDREWS TO PECOS TO ALPINE AND MARFA FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...
SINGLE DIGIT RH'S AND WINDS POSSIBLY 20 MPH OR GREATER...

.UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY COMBINED WITH AMBIENT DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED MINIMUM RH/S OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT ACROSS
SEVERAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE WEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PLAINS.

NMZ114-115-TXZ057-258-170300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-130417T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0026.130417T1700Z-130418T0300Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
254 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013 /154 PM MDT TUE APR 16 2013/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE GUADALUPE 
MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO 
PLAINS...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN CORRIDOR AND THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...

* WIND...TODAY...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH MOUNTAINS...15 TO 25 FOR
  THE PLAINS. WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH MOUNTAINS...20
  TO 30 FOR THE PLAINS.

* TEMPERATURES...5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

* HUMIDITY....5 TO 10 PERCENT.

* FIRE DANGER....VERY HIGH TO EXTREME.

* IMPACTS.....ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE
SPARKS. ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW
QUICKLY INTO DANGEROUS WIND- DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

&&

$$

TXZ045-050-170300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-130417T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0023.130417T1700Z-130418T0300Z/
GAINES-ANDREWS-
254 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY 
FOR THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN...


* WIND...TODAY...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH. 
  WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH. 

* TEMPERATURES...5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

* HUMIDITY...5 TO 10 PERCENT.

* FIRE DANGER....VERY HIGH TO EXTREME.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE
SPARKS. ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW
QUICKLY INTO DANGEROUS WIND- DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

&&

$$

TXZ058>060-067-074-170300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0023.130417T1700Z-130418T0300Z/
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-WARD-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
254 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE 
UPPER TRANS PECOS AND THE DAVIS AND APACHE MOUNTAINS...

* WIND...WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

* HUMIDITY...5 TO 10 PERCENT.

* FIRE DANGER....VERY HIGH TO EXTREME.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MAF (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
512 AM CDT TUE APR 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES...RESULTING IN SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS/SE NM. TO THE
NORTH...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE S
PLAINS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS
BEFORE STALLING LATER TODAY.  SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...INCREASING
RETURN FLOW WILL SHARPEN UP A DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING UP A
TRIPLE PT SOMEWHERE INVOF KMAF.  DEWPOINTS IN IN THE WARM SECTOR IN
SRN SCURRY COUNTY RAMP UP TO 60F OR BETTER THIS EVENING AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS WEST...RESULTING IN SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG...AND LI/S OF -10 OR SO.  STEEP MID-LVL LR/S OF NEARLY 9 DEG
C/KM...DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS...AND GOOD VEERING PROFILES WILL FAVOR
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS FROM SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ADVERTISE 0-3KM SR
HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 150 MS/S2...BUT WE/LL NOT MENTION A TORNADO
THREAT ATTM.  WEST OF THE DRYLINE...CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY 00Z
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO
A SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  LATEST NAM SHOWS A NICE
MTN WAVE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GUADALUPES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  THUS...WE/VE ISSUED A
WIND WATCH FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.  THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL LIKELY
SPILL OUT ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
WILL BE A GIVEN NW...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN DECIDE HOW FAR S AND E TO
EXTEND IT.  TEMPS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN WELL-ABV
NORMAL...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NE.  MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON A DRYLINE ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE
FA...AND AGAIN WHEN THE FRONT COMES THRU LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPS WELL-BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WARMING TO ABOVE-NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS NW FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL.  TUESDAY IS UP IN THE AIR...W/THE ECMWF
BRINGING ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHEREAS THE GFS
DOES NOT.  BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WILL UPGRADE THE FWW TO A RFW FOR ALL OF SE NM...THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN
WHERE SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH AND RH VALUES 5-10 PERCENT.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON YET ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE ALSO UPGRADED TO A RFW FOR SE NM AND THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH BORDERING THIS TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED OR UPGRADED IN LATER
FORECASTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK FROM FIRE WX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 90  62  88  44  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              92  67  89  49  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                90  59  87  47  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  94  69  94  59  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           94  64  93  53  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          83  53  78  42  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   88  58  85  45  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   85  45  82  40  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    93  67  90  48  /  10   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  91  66  89  48  /  10   0  10  10
WINK TX                    94  60  94  48  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
     NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...
     SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
     EDDY COUNTY.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     ANDREWS...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AND
     HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...DAVIS/APACHE
     MOUNTAINS AREA...GAINES...LOVING...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER
     TRANS PECOS...WARD...WINKLER.

&&

29/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 AM CDT TUE APR 16 2013

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-170800-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
256 AM CDT TUE APR 16 2013 /156 AM MDT TUE APR 16 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY.  SINCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 20 MPH OR
GREATER OVER THE VAN HORN AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS TODAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE VAN
HORN AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND
NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN.

STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEREFORE A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND