High Wind Warning 23, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty north to northeast winds will continue through the evening
hours with blowing dust possible.  Winds will begin to weaken around 06z and
become light out of the north.  Showers and thunderstorms that
develop along the cold front should remain to the east of all TAF
sites this evening. Low ceilings will affect parts of the area this
evening and overnight.  Winds will become southerly Saturday
afternoon but should not be too strong.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2013/

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AT PRESS TIME, CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM JUST SOUTH OF KATS THROUGH KHOB TO JUST NORTH OF KSNK. KMAF
WSR-88D DATA ARE DEPICTING THE FRONT NICELY, WITH AN ESTIMATED
SPEED OF ABOUT 25 MPH. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ABOUT 30 TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE STRETCHES FROM THE FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TRANS PECOS.

VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES, ON THE ORDER OF 2 MB/HR, WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT. RESULTANT ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AT LEAST SIX HOURS POST-FROPA, POSSIBLY
GUSTING UP INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURE TO THE
REGION AS WELL, AS TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE ARE IN THE 40S. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS AS WELL, WITH SKIES CLEARING ABOUT FOUR HOURS AFTER FROPA.
LOW STRATUS UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SOUTH TO ABOUT LBB SHOULD LIMIT
V DOT DEL DIRT TO LOCALIZED 1-2 SM IN BLOWING DUST.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER, A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDS NOW FROM
THE FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN LOWER TRANS
PECOS. MLCAPE UP AGAINST THIS DRYLINE IS STRUGGLING TO REACH 1000
J/KG WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE
THAN 45 KTS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ALONE
WILL GIN UP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE ORIENTATION OF
THE STORM-RELATIVE FLOW TO THE FRONT SUGGESTS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE, AND ASSOCIATED UPDRAFTS ALONG WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS WARRANTS MENTION OF SEVERE HERE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
NICKLES EXPECTED IN A BRIEF WINDOW FROM 5 PM CDT THROUGH 7 PM CDT.

WINDS WILL SLACK OFF BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WARRANTS A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF LEA COUNTY AND ALL OF GAINES COUNTY.
DECIDED TO DROP EDDY COUNTY AND THE GUADALUPES BECAUSE WE BELIEVE
THERE'LL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AND THERMAL BELTS, RESPECTIVELY, TO
KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND WINDS RETURNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING
A SLIGHT COOLDOWN TO TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. WITH A
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, LIFT, ETC., LOOKS TO BE SIG WX NIL FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 34  65  45  77  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              36  65  46  78  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                36  68  44  79  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  47  67  51  77  /  30  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           39  67  49  80  /  20   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  63  47  70  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   32  66  42  76  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   34  65  40  74  /  20   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    35  65  46  78  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  65  47  77  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    40  68  45  80  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA
     COUNTY.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GAINES.

&&

44/70

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1054 PM CDT FRI OCT 18 2013

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-200400-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1054 PM CDT FRI OCT 18 2013 /954 PM MDT FRI OCT 18 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN
LEA COUNTY AND GAINES COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND PORTIONS OF GAINES COUNTY.  A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND