Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

076 
WGUS74 KMAF 121652
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1052 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013

NMC015-122015-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130912T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EDDY-
1052 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013

...THIS IS A LIFE AND PROPERTY THREATENING FLASH FLOOD SITUATION...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHERN EDDY COUNTY...

AT 1023 AM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORT WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
ALONG ROCKY ARROYO AND TRIBUTARIES THAT ARE FLOWING INTO AVALON  
RESERVOIR. GAGES AT AVALON INDICATE THE RESERVOIR HAS RISEN ABOUT 6 
FT IN THE LAST 6 TO 9 HRS. WATER IS GOING OVER THE SPILLWAY AND FLOW 
INTO THE PECOS RIVER. THIS WILL LIKELY FLOOD PARTS OF CARLSBAD NORTH 
AT LEAST.

IN ADDITION WATER IN DARK CANYON DRAW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CARLSBAD 
IS RISING VERY RAPIDLY AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FLOODING... 
POSSIBLY MODERATE TO MAJOR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO 
CARLSBAD. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING 
SITUATION! THOSE THAT LIVE IN AREAS OF CARLSBAD THAT ARE PRONE TO 
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND AT A MOMENTS 
NOTICE.

FINALLY THIS EVENT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO THE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND 
FLASH FLOODING SITUATION FOR EDDY COUNTY THAT OCCURRED IN APRIL 2004.

THE FLASH FLOODING WARNING IS IN AFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING 
LOCATIONS...RURAL CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY ALSO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE... AND MANY OCCUR WHEN MOTORISTS
DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. IT IS NEVER SAFE TO DRIVE ON FLOODED
ROADS. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER TO QUICKLY
CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE 
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME 
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR 
CREEKS.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 10485 3255 10424 3229 10393 3201 10393
      3201 10485

$$

499 
WGUS74 KMAF 121913
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
113 PM MDT THU SEP 12 2013

NMC015-122015-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130912T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EDDY-
113 PM MDT THU SEP 12 2013

...THIS IS POTENTIALLY A LIFE AND PROPERTY THREATENING FLASH FLOOD 
SITUATION...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM MDT FOR 
SOUTHERN EDDY COUNTY...

AT 1259 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT HIGH FLOWS IN SEVERAL OF THE PRIMARY DRAINAGES OVER THE 
WARNED AREA...INCLUDING DARK CANYON DRAW AND ROCKY ARROYO. AVALON 
RESERVOIR HAS HELD STEADY SINCE LATE MORNING WITH A TOTAL RISE OF 
ABOUT 6.5 FEET AND WATER CONTINUES TO GO OVER THE SPILLWAY INTO THE 
PECOS RIVER. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO FLOODING IN PARTS OF 
CARLSBAD NORTH.

WATER IN DARK CANYON DRAW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CARLSBAD HAS RISEN  
ABOUT 14 FEET AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FLOODING...IN SOUTH 
AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF CARLSBAD. HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT RADIO AND 
SAN JOSE BOULEVARDS ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. THIS IS A DANGEROUS 
SITUATION AND THOSE THAT LIVE IN AREAS OF CARLSBAD THAT ARE PRONE TO 
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND AT A MOMENTS 
NOTICE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SALT LAKE...
LAKE AVALON...CAVERN CITY AIR TERMINAL...CARLSBAD NORTH...OTIS...
LOVING...CARLSBAD AND AVALON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE... AND MANY OCCUR WHEN MOTORISTS
DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. IT IS NEVER SAFE TO DRIVE ON FLOODED
ROADS. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER TO QUICKLY
CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 10485 3255 10424 3229 10393 3201 10393
      3201 10485

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to heavy rain has caused MVFR CIGs to form at CNM this
morning. This cloud deck will rise after a few hours and become
VFR later this morning. Other MVFR CIGs have develop southeast of
MAF, but should not make it to MAF or any other TAF sites which
will remain VFR.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain and flooding continued this morning across the Guadalupe
Mountains and most of Eddy County. Upper level difluence and
numerous S/W's along with an axis of moisture streaming in from
the Pacific have all led to several inches of rain over the past
two days. This moist axis will slowly shift west today as the mid-
level ridge that has given us a break from the heat moves back
over the Southern Plains. Will retain higher PoPs out west and
keep most other areas dry. Flood products will continue to be
issued throughout the day for parts of Eddy County as water makes
its way through the streams and arroyos toward the Pecos River.

With the drier air comes warmer temperatures which should rebound
back to normal values over the next several days. The only exception
will be the parts of southeast New Mexico which received the most
rain so will go a few degrees below guidance for these locations. A
weak backdoor cold front will slide south entering northern parts of
the Permian Basin late Friday. Moisture convergence during during
peak heating should lead to a few showers and thunderstorms along
the front. This front will stall across the area Saturday and become
a focus for more scattered convection. Beyond this weekend, the
upper ridge will break down, possibly allowing abundant moisture to
once again spread across the area. This type of pattern would
suggest better rain chances, but will continue with slight chance
PoPs in the extended for now as we await better model consistency.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
541 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-131045-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
541 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 /441 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN EDDY AND NORTHERN
CULBERSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN CARLSBAD AND ARTESIA...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS AT STREAMS AND
ARROYOS WILL BE FLOODED IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF EDDY COUNTY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT LOCAL INTEREST SHOULD STAY
ABREAST TO THE LATEST FORECAST.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
849 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E QUEEN               32.19N 104.69W
09/12/2013                   EDDY               NM   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CANYONS FLOODED. 1 TO 5 FEET OVER LOW WATER CROSSING AT
            LAST CHANCE/WAGON TRAIL.

&&

JACK.CICCONE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
853 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     FLASH FLOOD      11 NW CARLSBAD          32.52N 104.37W
09/12/2013                   EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER 8 FEET OVER ROAD ON HIGHWAY 137

&&

JACK.CICCONE