Tornado Warning 27, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
631 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE
COLD FRONT IS THROUGH SITES KHRO...KBPK...KADF AND KHOT AS EVIDENT
BY THE WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE SITES ARE CURRENTLY
FLUCTUATING FROM IFR TO MVFR AND WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO VFR AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. FOR SITES KLIT...KPBF AND KLLQ...A STRONG
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS. WIND GUSTS NOA 40 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT KPBF AND KLLQ BY 02Z...WITH IFR
EXPECTED WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS EFFECT THE SITES. EXPECT ALL SITES
AT VFR/MVFR BY 12Z...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WITH
10 TO 15 SUSTAINED WITH STRONGER GUSTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ALSO CHALLENGING WITH STRONG TEMP DROP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING CONTINUED TO INDICATE A WEAKER INVERSION
AROUND 10K FEET...QUITE MOIST WITH A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.42
INCHES...LI OF -8...CAPE 3500 J/KG AND A VEERING PROFILE. TORNADO
WATCH WENT OUT AROUND 120 PM FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AR...MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AR THROUGH 9 PM. THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ONLY SEEN
ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...NOW MAINLY IN A CORRIDOR
OVER SW TO WEST AR...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE
INFLUX. SOME CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED WEST OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
OK TO E KS AND SW MO. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS CLOSE TO PARALLEL
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND LIFT IS GOING NNE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT HAS WAFFLED AROUND
KHRO...NEAR CLARKSVILLE AND RUSSELLVILLE...STILL WEST OF
KMEZ...THEN TO NEAR THE SE CORNER OF OK. WILL STILL SEE SOME
WAFFLING OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN
AR.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SEEN WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS
ALSO BECOME TRICKY WITH THE COLD FRONT. 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHILE 50S TO SOME 40S BEHIND IT. SOUTH WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER
AR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
10 PM.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

PER CURRENT TRENDS...WILL HAVE HIGH POP...CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...AND HEAVY RAIN RISK IN THE FIRST TO SECOND
PERIODS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AS CAP WEAKENS AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES OVER AR. MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST AFTER SUNSET WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EASTERN AR AROUND SUNRISE OR A BIT
EARLY ON THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND WILL SEE SOME LIGHTER CONVECTION UNTIL
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH CLEAR THE STATE ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL
FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOWER TO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME
40S IN NW AR BY THURSDAY AM. 60S OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THURSDAY
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DRY AND CLOUDS THIN FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF DAY. THEN DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS BACK
TO NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SRLY FLOW WILL HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER WAVE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
FOR SRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW...WITH WARMING TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH TOWARDS AR WED. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  60  38  62 /  80  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         48  64  38  69 /  90  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       38  53  32  57 / 100  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    43  60  37  67 /  90  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  47  62  40  66 /  80  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     55  65  42  69 / 100  40  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      40  59  37  65 /  90  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  55  34  60 /  90  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        51  62  40  62 / 100  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     52  63  42  67 / 100  30  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  58  37  63 /  90  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         49  61  39  64 /  80  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      53  62  42  65 / 100  30  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...227

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
249 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
249 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SOME GUSTS OVER 3O MPH WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A FEW WEAK
TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THIS COLD
FRONT AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF OVER 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER BECOMING VERY LOW
INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

62

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
615 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     TSTM WND GST     MORGAN                  34.88N 92.37W
04/10/2013  E60 MPH          PULASKI            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
617 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAMLET                  35.08N 92.32W
04/10/2013                   FAULKNER           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON A STORE. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
            60-65 MPH.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
619 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 S VILONIA             34.98N 92.21W
04/10/2013  E70 MPH          PULASKI            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
621 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PERRYVILLE              35.01N 92.80W
04/10/2013                   PERRY              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW MOUNTAIN VIEW      35.84N 92.15W
04/10/2013                   STONE              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DITCHES HAVE BECOME FULL AND ARE NOW OVERFLOWING ONTO
            ROADWAYS MAKING ROAD IMPASSABLE. LOW WATER BRIDGES HAVE
            BECOME INUNDATED. WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING ONGOING.

&&

MCLAY