Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

.AVIATION...

OVERALL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH AREAS OF VFR OVER NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN AR...WHILE PATCHY IFR ESPECIALLY INITIALLY AT KLIT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO SOUTHERN AR AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AND HELP DEVELOP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. USED VCSH AND TEMPO GROUPS TO
COVER PRECIP CHANCES. WINDS WILL BE NW TO N AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS NORTH
OF THE FRONT...WHILE SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO NW THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH AR. WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. THROUGH TODAY THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH AR AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2013/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

SFC FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...STRETCHING FORM NORTH OF MEMPHIS...TO SOUTH OF PINE
BLUFF...TO AROUND TEXARKANA. SHRA AND A FEW TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG AN AXIS NORTH OF THIS FRONT...FROM ABOUT ARKADELPHIA TO LITTLE
ROCK INTO THE BOOT-HEEL OF MO. COOL TEMPS IN THE 40S WITH PATCHY FOG
HAVE BEEN THE MAIN STORY NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS MON. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...WITH MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH
OVER THE FRONT. BEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA
AS A RESULT...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. SOME SMALL HAIL COULD BE SEEN
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. TO THE NW...EXPECT SOME FOG EARLY...SPOTTY
SHRA AND COOL TEMPS TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE AND MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...BEST POPS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE SERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HRS BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS COMPLETELY TO THE SE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FOR TUE...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED BEFORE THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO
THE WEST OVER OK/TX AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE DROPS SE FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH INTO AR AHEAD OF THIS SFC
LOW...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FOR THU. COLD/DRY AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE AS THIS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OVER AR...WITH A WINTRY MIX
POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE THU. WARMING TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY COULD CHANGE PRECIP ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
STATE BACK TO ALL LIQUID. HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE...EVAPORATE COOLING COULD KEEP A WINTRY MIX GOING FOR MUCH
OF THU FOR THE NRN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE BY THU NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH
OVER COOLER/DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA PERSISTING INTO EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...KEEP ANY WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HRS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME
PERSISTING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...AND THE OVERALL DETAILS IN THE VERTICAL THERMAL
PROFILE...EXPECT ONGOING REFINEMENTS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS LATER
WEEK STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FRIDAY FORECAST HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...WHILE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTS
NORTHWARD TO AR. FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE
HINTING AT ENOUGH COLD AIR TO BE IN PLACE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. SHALLOW COLD AIR WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
WOULD HINT AT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET... VERSUS SNOW. THIS IS IN
THE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TEMPS COULD WARM ENOUGH TO GO
BACK TO ALL RAIN.

THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY
RAIN ENDS OVER AR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ON HOW
QUICKLY MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES PULL OUT OF AR...THEREFORE FUTURE
MODEL RUNS MAY KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP...RAIN AND POSSIBLE WINTER
PRECIP...OVER AR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BUT AT THIS TIME FORECAST
DRIES IT OUT AROUND 06Z SATURDAY MORNING.

FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IS BASICALLY DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN PLAINS WHICH WILL FILTER COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     57  35  60  37 /  30   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         70  44  70  44 /  50  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       56  33  60  35 /  20   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  41  66  42 /  30   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  64  40  65  42 /  40  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     73  43  68  43 /  50  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      62  40  66  42 /  20   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  32  60  35 /  20   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        58  35  60  37 /  40  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     69  41  66  42 /  50  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  38  65  40 /  20   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         60  36  62  39 /  40  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      65  39  63  41 /  50  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
ARKANSAS TODAY AND DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY BE SEEN WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE VERY
LOW. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF ARKANSAS LATER TODAY
AND TAKE THE CHANCE OF RAIN OUT OF THE STATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM. THERE ARE INDICATIONS SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME UNCERTAINTY DOES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON THE IMPACT...AND LATER FORECASTS WILL
FINE TUNE THE CHANCE OF WINTER WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

59

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