Severe Thunderstorm Warning 409, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
220 PM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TODAY MAINLY WITH PULSE
STORM ENVIRONMENT...THEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY TO TUESDAY AS
IT SAGS THROUGH AR. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES BY MID WEEK...WITH LOWERING HEAT INDEX VALUES.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AR HAS SLOWLY WEAKENED AND
MOVED SE...BUT STILL SOME DEVELOP IS ON GOING. NOW PULSE STORMS
FORMING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AR...AND WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
RIDGE HAS MOVED WELL TO THE WEST...NOW CENTERED MORE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS HELPED DEVELOP
THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AR...AS WELL AS IN PLACE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HELPING. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 1.65 INCHES AND AN LI OF -7 AND CAPE 3200 J/KG. CLOUD
COVER HAS INCREASED OVER NORTHERN AR WITH THE CONVECTION AND HAS
KEPT TEMPS LOWER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES
HAVE HELD TODAY FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LESS THAN 105 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW AND VERY
ISOLATED...IF ANY DOES OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WILL HAVE A SLIGHT TO A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
TO EVENING PERIOD DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE...AND PULSE STORM
POTENTIAL. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A STORM. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE STATE...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SAGS THROUGH THE STATE. HAVE KEPT POP
FORECAST IN THE CHANCE CAT DUE TO LIMITED UPPER DYNAMICS AND
FORCING. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A TENTH OF LESS TO
AROUND HALF AN INCH. SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WILL SEE AROUND ONE INCH
OR MORE IF A STRONG STORM HITS AN AREA...OR ANY TRAINING OF STORMS
SETS UP. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOVE ONE INCH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN LOWER QUICKLY WITH A DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ISOLATED. TEMPS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY LOWER BACK TO NORMAL VALUES DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY...THEN BEHIND THE FRONT A COOLER AND DRY AIR
MASS WILL HELP TAKE TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS DURING THE
PERIOD AND CHANCES WILL NOT BE GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  93  65  88 /  30  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         73  97  73  94 /  30  30  20  10
HARRISON AR       69  89  62  86 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  96  71  92 /  30  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  97  71  91 /  30  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  97  73  94 /  30  30  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  96  69  92 /  30  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  90  63  87 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        73  93  66  88 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     73  96  72  92 /  30  30  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  96  67  91 /  30  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  94  68  89 /  30  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      74  95  70  90 /  30  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...51