Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
215 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION EACH
PERIOD AND ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

MORNING CONVECTION OVER NE TO E AR HAS NOW MOVED SE OUT OF THE
CWA...WHILE EARLIER OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE SPARKED CONVECTION
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AR...AND IN THE LIT METRO AREA. EARLY
AFTERNOON STORM DID PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING OVER AR WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THREAT. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUE OF AROUND 2
INCHES...LI -5 TO -10...CAPE AROUND 4500 J/KG. THE UPPER PATTERN
REMAINS NORTHWEST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WILL HAVE SOME CONVECTION IN THE FIRST PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...MAINLY NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WITH ACTIVITY MOVING S TO SE.
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING
BEFORE WINDING DOWN. TONIGHT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH CLOSER TO AR...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES SE
IN THE UPPER FLOW. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SAGGING THE FRONT TO
NEAR THE AR AND MO STATE LINE AROUND 10Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE EXPECTED UPPER ENERGY...CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BE OVER THE STATE MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT AROUND CENTRAL AR MID DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN
SLOWLY DRIFT IT SOUTH TO SOUTHERN AR AROUND 00Z TO 06Z. CONVECTION
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE CHANCE OF
RAIN SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POP FORECAST MOVES THE
BEST TO SOUTHERN AREAS. INTO THURSDAY CONVECTION CHANCES FOCUS
MORE OVER WESTERN TO CENTRAL AR. INTO FRIDAY...CONVECTION CHANCES
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER AR AS A SYSTEM OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO AR AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PERIOD WILL INITIATE WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY WITH FEATURE EXITING THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING. STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS NOT
TO GET REAL EXCITED ABOUT POPS BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WHICH WILL BRING IN CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING
A WEAK SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  87  67  87 /  60  60  20  10
CAMDEN AR         73  94  72  93 /  30  40  20  20
HARRISON AR       72  87  67  88 /  70  60  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  93  71  92 /  40  40  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  92  71  90 /  50  50  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     73  93  71  92 /  40  40  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      73  94  71  92 /  40  30  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  87  66  87 /  70  60  20  20
NEWPORT AR        74  87  68  87 /  60  60  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     74  92  71  91 /  40  50  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  91  69  90 /  50  50  20  20
SEARCY AR         74  89  70  88 /  50  50  20  10
STUTTGART AR      74  92  71  90 /  50  50  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK..UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
220 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
220 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BR STRONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

WHERE RAIN DOES NOT OCCUR...TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CREATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
ANTICIPATED...AND THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.

ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

IT WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A NEW COLD
FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LARGE CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BUILD FROM KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
INTO ARKANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
FROM LITTLE ROCK NORTHWARD...WITH HIT AND MISS STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH.

THE NEW FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT MAY BE NEEDED
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46/56

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