Severe Thunderstorm Warning 252, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1228 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

.AVIATION...
TSRA MOVED OFF INTO MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING...BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM KLRF TO KSGT. THERE IS CONCERN
ABOUT TSRA REDEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. WITH BOUNDARY
ALMOST TO KLIT...DID NOT INCLUDE VCTS THERE...BUT DID ADD TO KPBF
AND KLLQ. AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...SKIES WILL CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/

UPDATE...
REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS MCS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION NOW OUT OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT
OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS WILL HOLD ON THE LONGEST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING HELPING MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE.

SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MILDER
AND DRIER AIR LAGGING BEHIND SO ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 90S
EXPECTED. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH 105 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH ONCE AGAIN FOR AN HOUR BEFORE THE FRONT DOES FINALLY MAKE IT
BUT SOME RELIEF IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS...CLIPPING PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AS
IT DOES SO. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...STRETCHING AS FAR WEST AS BOONE AND NEWTON COUNTIES...BUT
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH JUST EAST OF
THERE...AFFECTING AREAS LIKE MOUNTAIN HOME TO BATESVILLE. REPORTS
OF +60 MPH WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN COMING IN AS STORMS PASSED THROUGH
PARTS OF MISSOURI SO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS CONVECTION. REMNANTS OF THIS MCS SHOULD DIE OUT AS THEY MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RE-FIRING OF CONVECTION BECOMING
POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE. FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF HOT SPRINGS AND ARKADELPHIA...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER SHOT AT 100 DEGREES. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO REACH THAT 105-107 RANGE IN THOSE AREAS.

HOWEVER...RELIEF IS ON THE WAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE STATE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOW 60S BY SAT AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE LOW 80S TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90. THIS WILL BE A
FAR MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS. BY SUN AND MON...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID/UPPER 80S. MOREOVER...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE 50S IN SOME PLACES UP NORTH...WHILE THE REST OF
THE STATE FALLS WELL INTO THE 60S SAT AND SUN NIGHTS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S...AND
THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. REGION. THIS WILL
BRING MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...AS WELL AS SOME LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW OVER THE OH TO TN VALLEYS.
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1155 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-291000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1155 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IS NOW LOCATED IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THERE
IS A CHANCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ON THEM DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE STORMS IF THEY DO INDEED DEVELOP
WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A TEXARKANA TO LITTLE ROCK TO
AUGUSTA LINE WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS.

IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH DRIER AND MILDER AIR IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. HEAT
INDICES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY REACH 105 DEGREES FOR
AN AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE
MILDER AND DRIER AIR MASS SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION THIS WEEKEND AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL MOVE OVER ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT BUT SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY.
OTHERWISE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

ARZ044-045-281830-
LONOKE AR-PULASKI AR-
1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PULASKI AND WESTERN
LONOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH
BEND...OR NEAR JACKSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SHERWOOD...           JACKSONVILLE...
  TOLTEC MOUNDS STATE PARK...                 SYLVAN HILLS...
  SOUTH BEND...         SCOTT...              PROTHRO JUNCTION...
  METO...               MCALMONT...           GRAVEL RIDGE...
  WILLOW BEACH...       TOLTEC...             TERRY LOCK AND DAM...
  ROSE CITY...          KERR...               GALLOWAY...
  FURLOW...             BEVIS CORNER...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 156 AND 170.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 440 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND 14.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3467 9190 3461 9219 3488 9224 3493 9202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 345DEG 20KT 3481 9210

58