Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW NEAR MOUNT IDA AND HOT
SPRINGS. OUT EAST FROM THE LOW IS THE WARM BOUNDARY...EXTENDING
FROM BETWEEN LITTLE ROCK AND PINE BLUFF TO NEAR THE MEMPHIS METRO
AREA.

THE WARM BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS THE LOW PRESSURE DRAGS EASTWARD ALONG IT AND PUSHES
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE WARM SECTOR OUT IN EASTERN/SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS HAS SEEN SUFFICIENT HEATING TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 80 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THUS...SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THAT AREA.

THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST...AND IF
THIS THREAT WERE TO MATERIALIZE...HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END
EARLY SUNDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
SETTING UP. THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THE WARM
AND DRY WEATHER...HOWEVER...WILL NOT LAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HAVE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING AREAWIDE AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NW OVER THE ROCKIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS AS THIS
STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
OVER TIME...THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL WILL
WOBBLE SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE RESULTING
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THIS UPPER LOW
BECOMES...AND WHERE IT WILL END UP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE THE FROPA
OCCURRING LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...BUT DO EXPECT CONTINUING
REFINEMENTS WITH THE FROPA TIMING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
LATEST DATA IS ANALYZED. ONE THING IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT...AND
THAT IS THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS AR. AGAIN...MANY DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SO CONTINUE TO REFER TO LATEST
FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS FOR THE EXTENT OF THE COOLER TEMPS AND
PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS LATE NEXT WEEK STORM SYSTEM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  71  53  80 /  40  20   0   0
CAMDEN AR         52  76  53  83 /  30  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       45  70  53  81 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    50  74  54  81 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  74  55  81 /  30  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     57  76  54  82 /  40  20   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      45  75  51  81 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  70  52  82 /  30  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        50  71  52  81 /  40  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     56  74  55  81 /  40  20   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  75  52  82 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         50  71  50  80 /  40  20   0   0
STUTTGART AR      53  72  55  80 /  40  20   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281030-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
300 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO
WARM MOIST AIR OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK SOME OF THIS STORMS MY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ARKADELPHIA...TO LITTLE ROCK...TO AUGUSTA.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL..WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ARKANSAS...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING,

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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