Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
631 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE
COLD FRONT IS THROUGH SITES KHRO...KBPK...KADF AND KHOT AS EVIDENT
BY THE WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE SITES ARE CURRENTLY
FLUCTUATING FROM IFR TO MVFR AND WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO VFR AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. FOR SITES KLIT...KPBF AND KLLQ...A STRONG
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS. WIND GUSTS NOA 40 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT KPBF AND KLLQ BY 02Z...WITH IFR
EXPECTED WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS EFFECT THE SITES. EXPECT ALL SITES
AT VFR/MVFR BY 12Z...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WITH
10 TO 15 SUSTAINED WITH STRONGER GUSTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ALSO CHALLENGING WITH STRONG TEMP DROP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING CONTINUED TO INDICATE A WEAKER INVERSION
AROUND 10K FEET...QUITE MOIST WITH A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.42
INCHES...LI OF -8...CAPE 3500 J/KG AND A VEERING PROFILE. TORNADO
WATCH WENT OUT AROUND 120 PM FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AR...MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AR THROUGH 9 PM. THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ONLY SEEN
ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...NOW MAINLY IN A CORRIDOR
OVER SW TO WEST AR...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE
INFLUX. SOME CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED WEST OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
OK TO E KS AND SW MO. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS CLOSE TO PARALLEL
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND LIFT IS GOING NNE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT HAS WAFFLED AROUND
KHRO...NEAR CLARKSVILLE AND RUSSELLVILLE...STILL WEST OF
KMEZ...THEN TO NEAR THE SE CORNER OF OK. WILL STILL SEE SOME
WAFFLING OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN
AR.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SEEN WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS
ALSO BECOME TRICKY WITH THE COLD FRONT. 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHILE 50S TO SOME 40S BEHIND IT. SOUTH WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER
AR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
10 PM.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

PER CURRENT TRENDS...WILL HAVE HIGH POP...CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...AND HEAVY RAIN RISK IN THE FIRST TO SECOND
PERIODS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AS CAP WEAKENS AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES OVER AR. MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST AFTER SUNSET WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EASTERN AR AROUND SUNRISE OR A BIT
EARLY ON THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND WILL SEE SOME LIGHTER CONVECTION UNTIL
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH CLEAR THE STATE ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL
FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOWER TO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME
40S IN NW AR BY THURSDAY AM. 60S OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THURSDAY
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DRY AND CLOUDS THIN FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF DAY. THEN DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS BACK
TO NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SRLY FLOW WILL HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER WAVE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
FOR SRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW...WITH WARMING TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH TOWARDS AR WED. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  60  38  62 /  80  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         48  64  38  69 /  90  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       38  53  32  57 / 100  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    43  60  37  67 /  90  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  47  62  40  66 /  80  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     55  65  42  69 / 100  40  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      40  59  37  65 /  90  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  55  34  60 /  90  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        51  62  40  62 / 100  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     52  63  42  67 / 100  30  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  58  37  63 /  90  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         49  61  39  64 /  80  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      53  62  42  65 / 100  30  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...227

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