Flash Flood Warning 97, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
551 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

.AVIATION...
AS OF THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO SURGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST PAST KLIT AND KHOT. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...NW WINDS THIS MORNING AT KLIT AND KHOT
SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY MIDDAY. NORTH
OF THE FRONT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH WIND SHEAR
LIKELY AS WELL. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHEAST OF
MENA...TO SE OF RUSSELLVILLE...TO JUST SOUTH OF BATESVILLE THIS
MORNING. NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ARE ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH HAVE BEEN GENERALLY DROPPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES SO FAR THIS MORNING. EXPECT MANY MORE HRS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS SAT.

THE COLD AIR IS CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE CWA...WITH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SEEING TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. WILL
PROBABLY MENTION A RAIN/FZRA MIX FOR THIS FAR NWRN AREAS AS TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO
RISE BY ABOUT MID MORNING TO BECOME ALL RAIN ONCE AGAIN.

UPPER TROUGH TO THE SW OF THE STATE WILL LIFT NE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THIS STALLED
FRONT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE IN VICINITY AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH OVERALL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES COULD BE SEEN. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STRETCH FROM MOUNT IDA...TO MORRILTON...TO
BATESVILLE. CONTINUED THE FFA FOR CURRENT LOCATIONS...THOUGH HAVE
EXPIRED A LARGE PORTION OF THE FFA AT 02Z SUN AS MOST PRECIP WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE NERN COUNTIES WILL STILL BE IN FFA
THROUGH 06Z SUN. THE SERN COUNTIES WILL SEE OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE SVR WX POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST FOR THIS SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THIS OCCURS...SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. ALONG AND SE OF
THIS AXIS WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX AS FORECAST SFC
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN THIS
REGION. THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG LLJ...RESULTING IN
DEEP LAYER SHR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 60 KTS. LOW LEVEL SHR WILL
ALSO BE HIGH...WITH 0 TO 1 KM BULK SHR OF AROUND 40 KTS...WITH
IMPRESSIVE FORECAST CURVED HODOGRAPHS. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. AGAIN...THE BEST
THREAT FOR SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE STATE...WHICH
WOULD BE THE BEST REGION FOR MORE DISCRETE STORMS.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
MOVES OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...CONTINUE LAKE WIND ADV THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE NE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING DIMINISHING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SOME RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN COUNTIES ON
SUN. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE SEEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY ONE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IS THE BIG QUESTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. GFS WAS THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS AND THE CANADIAN WAS
THE WETTEST...WHILE THE EURO WAS IN THE GOLDILOCKS ZONE AND SEEMED
MOST REASONABLE. AS A RESULT...TENDED TO FAVOR THE EURO SOLUTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WINTER
WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. CONTINUED
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS
LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  39  48  26 / 100  70  20  10
CAMDEN AR         75  46  57  31 / 100  50  10  10
HARRISON AR       41  31  40  20 / 100  50  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  40  50  28 / 100  30  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  43  52  29 / 100  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     77  50  61  32 / 100  80  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      72  37  47  26 / 100  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  46  34  43  22 / 100  60  20  10
NEWPORT AR        69  42  50  27 / 100  80  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  47  56  31 / 100  70  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  38  49  26 / 100  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         69  41  51  28 / 100  60  20  10
STUTTGART AR      73  45  54  30 / 100  70  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CLEBURNE-FULTON-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-PRAIRIE-SHARP-STONE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLARK-
CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-VAN BUREN-YELL.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

&&

AVIATION...225

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
913 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE WEST LITTLE ROCK  34.77N 92.40W
12/21/2013  E5.00 INCH       PULASKI            AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            ONE MILE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 430 AND 630 EXCHANGE.

&&

58