Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
217 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN US
DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST. ARKANSAS
WILL TRANSITION TO A NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND AT THE SURFACE A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...PUSHING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND MAY STALL FOR A
TIME...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING
ECHOES OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT STALLS OUT FOR A TIME. AT
PRESENT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE TENDING TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM THIS EVENT...ALTHOUGH
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOW INDICATING MORE OF A NW-SE AXIS ACROSS
THE CWA. ITS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY PREDICT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AS IT WILL DEPEND UPON A NUMBER OF
FACTORS...NAMELY THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...AND WHERE IT MAY SLOW OR
STALL..AND THE TIMING OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

ALL OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING UNUSUALLY MILD
TEMPERATURES TO ARKANSAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST. &&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS...WITH A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.  ABNORMALLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL START THE PERIOD...AS
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES AVERAGE 8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  85  64  81 /  60  50  40  30
CAMDEN AR         75  90  72  82 /  60  60  60  60
HARRISON AR       65  82  63  80 /  60  50  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  85  70  85 /  70  70  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  83  68  85 /  70  70  50  40
MONTICELLO AR     76  86  71  84 /  50  70  60  60
MOUNT IDA AR      73  84  68  83 /  60  70  60  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  67  84  64  81 /  60  50  40  20
NEWPORT AR        70  86  64  81 /  60  50  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     74  82  70  85 /  60  70  50  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  81  67  87 /  70  70  50  30
SEARCY AR         72  82  66  81 /  70  60  50  30
STUTTGART AR      73  81  69  82 /  70  70  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...55

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
200 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
200 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.  THE STONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ONE INCH HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
ALSO...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.

LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...AND WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN EXPECTED...AND WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS ARKANSAS ON
TUESDAY...WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 3 INCHES COULD BE SEEN IN THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THESE SAME AREAS HAVE SEEN SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST WEEK...WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS
IN PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL
BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN STARTING EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH PART OF
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS REASON...STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING...THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING
FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS AREA OF
THE STATE HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
WEEK...SO THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS
AREAS TO THE NORTH. EVEN SO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY AND INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

RUNOFF FROM THIS UPCOMING EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY GO INTO AREA RIVERS.
PORTIONS OF THE WHITE RIVER BASIN ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING MINOR
FLOODING FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR HIGHER
CRESTS. RISES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON OTHER RIVERS SUCH AS THE
BUFFALO...LITTLE RED AND CACHE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

55/62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
223 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

ARZ012-013-021>023-122010-
JOHNSON AR-NEWTON AR-POPE AR-SEARCY AR-VAN BUREN AR-
223 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN VAN BUREN...SOUTHWESTERN
SEARCY...NORTHEASTERN POPE...SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 223 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BERTHA...OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF JASPER...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WITTS SPRING...       SMYRNA...             MOORE...
  IMO...                DILLEN...             DABNEY...
  BOHANNON...           BERTHA...             TILLY...
  SAND GAP...           RICHLAND CREEK CAMPGROUND...
  PELSOR...             NOGO...               LURTON...
  CHIMES...             BEN HUR...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3582 9271 3557 9274 3567 9322 3580 9319
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 275DEG 17KT 3572 9314

55

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