Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
659 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

.AVIATION...

SEVERAL ROUNDS TO SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT MAINLY PARTS OF NRN AR DURG
THE TNGT AND FRI MRNG. STAYED CLOSE TO THE HRRR MODEL REGARDING
TIMING OF EACH ROUND OF RAINFALL. THE PRIMARY COND WL BE VFR...
WITH OCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER STORMS. LESSER RAIN CHCS
EXPECTED THE FURTHER S YOU GO ACRS THE FA...WITH VFR CONDS
PREVAILING THRU THE FCST PD. PTCHY BR /MVFR VSBYS/ WL BE POSSIBLE
ARND SUNRISE IN SOME AREAS. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

..TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD OVER TIME...RESULTING IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.

AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN
CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE AGAIN FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OVER THE
KS/OK REGION TONIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE
AR/MO BORDER AREA. MODELS ARE TRYING TO TRACK THIS MCS FARTHER
NORTH...MORE INTO SOUTHERN MO...BUT DURING THE PAST FEW NIGHTS IT
SEEMS THAT THE MODELS HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD BIAS IN THE TRACK OF
THESE SYSTEMS...SO MY INSTINCT IS THAT THE NORTHERN...AND ESPECIALLY
THE NWRN COUNTIES...COULD AGAIN SEE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM AN MCS
OVERNIGHT.

PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY HAD VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
MCS LAST NIGHT. MANY 3-4 INCH RAINFALL REPORTS WERE RECEIVED AND A
FEW WERE OVER 5 INCHES. DUAL POL RADAR ESTIMATES HAD SOME AREAS
RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES. FLASH FLOODING DID OCCUR IN A
NUMBER OF AREAS...MOST NOTABLY ALONG BEAR CREEK. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE FOR THIS AREA...AND ADJACENT AREAS...IS QUITE LOW FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...I HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR BOONE...
MARION...BAXTER...NEWTON...AND SEARCY COUNTIES.

ALSO...THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON NEEDED SOME ADJUSTMENTS...SO I HAVE RECONFIGURED THE
ADVISORY TO COVER ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS NWLY FLOW ALOF AND
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE STATE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH
PART OF THE STATE...AND AROUND NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE.

ONE NOTABLE ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST TO POINT OUT WOULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING COULD
BECOME A CONCERN. AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO SOON TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE
AREAS OF POTENTIAL FLOODING COULD BE...BUT IT IS PROBABLY WORTH
WATCHING THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING
FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES. AS SUCH...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING ALONG THE MISSOURI
BORDER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL EXCEED 105 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE...AND BRINGS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100
TO 105 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56

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