Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1239 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

.AVIATION...
A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND WILL
BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KBPK AND
KHRO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT... INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY
FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS... INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES A BIT.

UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST
HALF DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
RATHER WARM DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT HOPEFULLY THAT WILL BE THE LAST DAY
IT WILL BE NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO BE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS ARE
STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST
TO THE WEST...AND UPPER TROUGHING TO THE NORTHEAST...OF ARKANSAS. A
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF...IF
NOT ENTIRELY IN...THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE
PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY IN CONCERT WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL MEAN RAINFALL
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION...A BIG LULL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL OCCUR BUT
MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE SO DECIDED TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN EACH NIGHT. STAYED WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYTIME AREAS.

TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE. CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL WILL HELP TO MITIGATE ANY EXCEPTIONALLY HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  93  72  91 /  40  30  30  40
CAMDEN AR         73  97  73  95 /  10  20  20  40
HARRISON AR       71  90  68  86 /  40  30  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  97  72  94 /  10  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  96  75  93 /  10  20  20  40
MONTICELLO AR     76  96  74  94 /  10  20  20  40
MOUNT IDA AR      71  97  72  94 /  10  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  90  70  87 /  40  30  30  40
NEWPORT AR        74  94  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     74  96  75  93 /  10  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  97  73  92 /  10  20  20  30
SEARCY AR         74  95  74  91 /  10  20  20  40
STUTTGART AR      76  95  75  92 /  10  20  20  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDER. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR
TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LOW.

ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...ANY THUNDERSTORM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY IN AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES THURSDAY.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE...AND BRINGS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100
TO 105 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

58

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1225 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

ARZ014>016-080555-
INDEPENDENCE AR-IZARD AR-STONE AR-
1225 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN STONE...SOUTHERN
IZARD AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN INDEPENDENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM
CDT...

AT 1223 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES WEST OF BRANDENBERG...OR 8 MILES NORTH
OF MOUNTAIN VIEW...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MOUNTAIN VIEW...      LUNENBURG...          LONE STAR...
  HERPEL...             CROKER...             BRANDENBERG...
  TWIN CREEK...         SYLAMORE SHOOTING RANGE...
  SYLAMORE BIKE TRAIL...                      SYLAMORE...
  OPTIMUS...            GUION...              BOSWELL...
  ALLISON...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3607 9190 3584 9182 3581 9214 3605 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 258DEG 29KT 3598 9205

58

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1253 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

ARZ007-015-016-080640-
INDEPENDENCE AR-IZARD AR-SHARP AR-
1253 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHARP...SOUTHEASTERN
IZARD AND NORTHERN INDEPENDENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

AT 1251 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CAVE CITY TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GID...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STELLA...             SIDNEY...             MT PLEASANT...
  GID...                CUSHMAN...            CAVE CITY...
  SANDTOWN...           SAGE...               PFEIFFER...
  MAXVILLE...           LAFFERTY...           JAMES...
  GRANGE...             GAINESBORO...         CURIA...
  CORD...               CHARLOTTE...          AETNA...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3578 9128 3581 9182 3606 9191 3603 9140
      3593 9134 3590 9135 3589 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 0553Z 318DEG 6KT 3592 9151 3595 9188

56