Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
825 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ALSO TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND S OF THE AR RVR
VALLEY TUE AND WED AFTN.

TWO SUPERCELLS HAVE FORMED ACRS SWRN MO THIS EVENING...WITH ONE
STORM NOW APCHG THE AR BRDR N OF MTN HOME. ANOTHER CELL WL AFFECT
BOONE CO WITHIN THE HR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. INCRSD POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS NEW CONVECTION.

AFTN HEAT INDICES ARE FCST TO REACH ADVY CRITERIA THE NEXT TWO
DAYS ACRS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN AR. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN ADVY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND S OF THE AR RVR VALLEY TUE AFTN THRU WED
AFTN.

NO OTHER CHGS TO CURRENT FCST ATTM. ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
AND SENT. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT CENTRAL AND SRN SITES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS BEFORE OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASES. LATER
TONIGHT...CONVECTION ACROSS MO WILL DROP SE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN
AR...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT NRN SITES AS A RESULT. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AT SOME
SITES. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR MUCH OF TUE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED...ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OBJECTIVE INSTABILITY FIELDS INDICATE 100MB MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES OF OVER 4000 J/KG ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. ALSO...MOISTURE CONTENT OF LOCAL AIR MASS
IS QUITE HIGH...AS INDICATED BY OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO THE TOP 99TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE EXPLOSIVE
IN NATURE...HOWEVER OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED ...AS FORCING
IS VERY WEAK...AND SMALL SCALE IN NATURE.

CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF AN
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE BEST ABLE TO AFFECT
EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

WARM TEMPERATURES...AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO NEAR EXCESSIVE HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...AND ANY MORNING
PRECIPITATION...WILL AFFECT LOCAL AFTERNOON HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...WITH A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW CLOSE TO THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER...AND WILL BE
STALLED. SYSTEMS FROM THE PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MORE SPOTTY IN THE
SOUTH/WEST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL...
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH/EAST WHERE MOST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. READINGS MAY AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE SOUTH/WEST WHERE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
840 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
840 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE ISOLATED IN NATURE...SOME HAVE
BECOME STRONG AND SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS 60 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL...QUARTER SIZED ARE LARGER...WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...THESE STORMS CAN
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 105 IN TUESDAY...WITH
VALUES NEARING 107 FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

55/224

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

ARZ068-069-060020-
BRADLEY AR-DREW AR-
632 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DREW AND EASTERN
BRADLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 630 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF FOUNTAIN HILL...OR 14 MILES NORTH
OF NORTH CROSSETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  JOHNSVILLE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3334 9211 3345 9205 3340 9181 3340 9180
      3339 9181 3339 9197 3335 9196 3334 9198
      3331 9197 3328 9201 3328 9203
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 214DEG 3KT 3337 9199

62

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
914 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

ARZ004-060245-
MARION AR-
914 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 911 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OZARK ISLE...OR 6 MILES WEST
OF BULL SHOALS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  YELLVILLE...          BULL SHOALS...        PRICE PLACE...
  OZARK ISLE...         LAKEWAY...            FLIPPIN...
  DODD CITY...          SUMMIT...             SNOW...
  PEEL...               OAKLAND...            MONARCH...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3640 9253 3636 9260 3634 9259 3635 9255
      3616 9265 3641 9289 3648 9289 3648 9288
      3647 9286 3651 9285 3650 9253
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 316DEG 25KT 3638 9268

62