Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Lubbock, TX

856 
WWUS44 KLUB 241819
WSWLUB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS BY MONDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS STORM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD AIR WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG LIFT TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES.
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS ACCOMPANYING THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALSO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

TXZ021>026-250230-
/O.CON.KLUB.BZ.W.0001.130225T0300Z-130226T0000Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...DIMMITT...HART...
TULIA...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...MEMPHIS...TURKEY...CHILDRESS
1219 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST MONDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE 
  THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW 
  SHOULD END ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY 
  EVENING. 

* SNOW TOTALS...THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY 
  HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. 

* WINDS...NORTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH SOME 
  GUSTS TO 60 MPH BY MONDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES WILL BECOME ICY AND 
  SNOW PACKED RESULTING IN TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 
  PERIODIC WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM EXTENSIVE BLOWING 
  AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS 
  WILL STRESS TREES AND POWER LINES...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF 
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

TXZ027>032-250230-
/O.CON.KLUB.WS.W.0002.130225T0300Z-130226T0000Z/
BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...
PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...LOCKNEY...MATADOR...ROARING SPRINGS...
PADUCAH
1219 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM CST MONDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINNING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS THIS 
  EVENING...THEN SPREADING EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW SHOULD 
  END ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING. 

* SNOW TOTALS...TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* WIND...VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 
  AROUND 55 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY BECOME 
  ICY AND SNOW PACKED RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVELING 
  CONDITIONS. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CREATE AREAS OF 
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT 
  CONDITIONS. PROLONGED SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL STRESS TREES 
  AND POWER LINES...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED POWER 
  OUTAGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
EXPECTED OR ALREADY OCCURRING. TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

361 
WWUS44 KLUB 242227
WSWLUB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
427 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS BY MONDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS STORM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD AIR WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG LIFT TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES.
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS ACCOMPANYING THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALSO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

TXZ027>032-250600-
/O.CAN.KLUB.WS.W.0002.130225T0300Z-130226T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KLUB.BZ.W.0001.130225T0300Z-130226T0000Z/
BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...
PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...LOCKNEY...MATADOR...ROARING SPRINGS...
PADUCAH
427 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINNING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AND
  EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...THEN
  SPREADING EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW SHOULD END ACROSS THE
  EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
  MONDAY EVENING.

* SNOW TOTALS...THREE TO SIX INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* WIND...VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 
  AROUND 55 TO 60 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY BECOME
  ICY AND SNOW PACKED RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS.
  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
  SNOW ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. PROLONGED SNOW
  AND STRONG WINDS WILL STRESS TREES AND POWER LINES...INCREASING
  THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

TXZ033>038-250600-
/O.EXA.KLUB.BZ.W.0001.130225T0300Z-130226T0000Z/
COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORTON...LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...SLATON...
WOLFFORTH...CROSBYTON...RALLS...DICKENS...SPUR...GUTHRIE
427 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY. 

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINNING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AND
  EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...THEN
  SPREADING EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW SHOULD END ACROSS THE
  EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
  MONDAY EVENING.

* SNOW TOTALS...TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* WIND...VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 
  AROUND 55 TO 60 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY BECOME
  ICY AND SNOW PACKED RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS.
  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
  SNOW ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. PROLONGED SNOW
  AND STRONG WINDS WILL STRESS TREES AND POWER LINES...INCREASING
  THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

TXZ021>026-250600-
/O.CON.KLUB.BZ.W.0001.130225T0300Z-130226T0000Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...DIMMITT...HART...
TULIA...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...MEMPHIS...TURKEY...CHILDRESS
427 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST MONDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE 
  THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW 
  SHOULD END ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY 
  EVENING. 

* SNOW TOTALS...FIVE TO SIX INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH SOME
  GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES WILL BECOME ICY AND 
  SNOW PACKED RESULTING IN TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 
  PERIODIC WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM EXTENSIVE BLOWING 
  AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS 
  WILL STRESS TREES AND POWER LINES...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF 
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

TXZ039>044-250600-
/O.NEW.KLUB.WW.Y.0003.130225T0600Z-130226T0000Z/
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLAINS...DENVER CITY...BROWNFIELD...
TAHOKA...ODONNELL...POST...JAYTON...ASPERMONT
427 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM CST MONDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINNING IN WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
  SPREADING EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW SHOULD END ACROSS THE
  FAR SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING.

* SNOW TOTALS...UP TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME ICY AND
  SNOW PACKED. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR BEGINNING MONDAY
  MORNING AND LASTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
  TRAVEL CONDITIONS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND
USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
554 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH BREEZY SWLY WINDS AT LBB BEFORE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE TAF
SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR COMPLETE WITH
RA/SHRA CHANCES. COULD EVEN SEE SOME TSRA AT CDS TONIGHT...BUT
THIS APPEARS TOO ISOLATED FOR TAF MENTION. ODDS ARE MUCH GREATER
THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW AT LBB SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AT CDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW APPEAR MOST LIKELY
NEAR CDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...
..SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

OVERVIEW...
AFTER SPRING-LIKE WARMTH TODAY...THE BOTTOM WILL BEGIN FALLING OUT
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER CYCLONE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
BEFORE UNDERGOING INTENSIFICATION MONDAY MORNING DIRECTLY OVER THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS.

TODAY...
PRECEDING THE UPPER LOW...A MODEST POLAR FRONT WILL BE DRAWN
SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES NEAR
CLOVIS/NM. CONSIDERING THE LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW...WOULD
NOT EXPECT FROPA IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING.
THEREFORE WE HAVE BOOSTED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THIS REGION
AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS AIDED BY BREEZY
SWLY WINDS. FARTHER EAST...THE STORY IS MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SHOULD EMERGE BY MIDDAY
SOMEWHERE NEAR HIGHWAY 83. WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SWLY FLOW
HERE TO AID IN THE DRYLINE MIXING EAST AND PRESSURE FALLS
REMAINING FOCUSED FARTHER WEST...HAVE EDGED THE DRYLINE ABOUT 20
MILES WEST OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...
RATHER PHENOMENAL 12-HOUR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING 200 METERS
IN 12 HOURS ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AS THE UPPER CYCLONE PIVOTS EASTWARD
OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN THE UPPER
LOW/S PROJECTED PATH HAS BEEN A COMMON THEME FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 3
DAYS AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS CLUSTERED VERY WELL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
SIMPLY PUT...AN ACTIVE EVENING IS IN STORE AS THE DRYLINE WILL
LIKELY RETREAT A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS BEFORE CONVECTING IN A STRONGLY SHEARED...BUT MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HPC QPF SUPPORTS SUCH A SOLUTION AND THE
CURRENT SWODY1 SLIGHT RISK ACCOUNTS FOR SOME SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. OVERALL...BEST SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION NEAR THE HIGHER MIXING RATIOS AND
SUBSEQUENT BETTER CAPE.

ELSEWHERE...THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD BE BISECTING THE CWA IN A SW-NE
FASHION BY MIDNIGHT AS IT CURLS BEHIND THE SURFACE CYCLONE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS WILL MAKE QUICK WORK OF THE RELATIVELY MILD LOWER-MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERIC TEMPS AND ACT TO COOL THE COLUMN DOWN ENOUGH FOR A
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WINTER WEATHER INGREDIENTS ARE NOTHING SHORT OF CLASSIC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE 500MB AND 700MB
LOWS. A WELL-DEFINED TROWAL ALONG THE 290K SURFACE IS ALSO PROGGED
TO EMERGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AN INTENSIFYING
DEFORMATION ZONE...THE INGREDIENTS ARE FULLY PRESENT FOR HEAVY
SNOW IN OUR FAR NWRN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STRONG
NLY/COLD ADVECTION LLJ WILL ALSO SERVE TO CREATE BLOWING SNOW...
HENCE AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM PARMER COUNTY EAST TO
CHILDRESS COUNTY WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM BAILEY EAST TO
COTTLE COUNTY. OPTED TO KEEP THE START TIME OF THESE WARNINGS THE
SAME ACROSS THE BOARD TO LIMIT PUBLIC CONFUSION...ALTHOUGH SNOW
SHOULD NOT BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE OFF THE CAPROCK
UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z MONDAY.

MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHORTLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK ALLOWING ANY MIXED PRECIP OF RAIN/SNOW TO BECOME ALL
SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
A TOUCH ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO THE PARENT SYSTEM BEING LOCATED
OVER A REGION WELL-SAMPLED BY RAOBS VERSUS SAY MEXICO...HOWEVER
A SHIFT OF 50 MILES COULD EASILY BRING 4" OR MORE SNOWS INTO THE
LUBBOCK AREA. THIS OPPORTUNITY STILL EXISTS AND THE DAY SHIFT WILL
MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HAZARDS. FOR
NOW...ENSEMBLES AND HPC WWD ALL INDICATE THIS THREAT REMAINING
FARTHER NORTH CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. HEAVY
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
UNDER THE DEFORMATION FIELD...ALTHOUGH THE TROWAL WILL LIKELY
ASSUME A MORE NORTHERLY LATITUDE AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND WRAPS
A DRY SLOT NORTHWARD. THIS DRY SLOT COULD JEOPARDIZE SNOW TOTALS
IN THE CHILDRESS AREA...BUT FINE DETAILS LIKE THIS ARE HARD TO
PINPOINT SO FAR OUT. EVEN IF 4" OR MORE SNOW TOTALS FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...PRESENCE OF 35-45 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS SPELLS AT
LEAST A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE WITH ONLY PERIODIC NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE COMPARABLY LESS SNOW IS LIKELY. RELATIVELY
MILD NATURE OF THIS STORM SUGGESTS SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE
KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 8-10:1...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
PARTICULARLY IN THE TROWAL AND UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE DO
INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH OFTEN
TIMES ALTERS THESE OTHERWISE LOW RATIOS INTO MORE IMPRESSIVE
NUMBERS. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE NUDGED TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS UPWARDS
TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES IN THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. LASTLY...
SEE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE MAX TEMPS WILL BE AS MILD AS MOS
WOULD HAVE US BELIEVE...SO HAVE LOWERED VALUES SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM EARLIER FORECASTS AND CLOSER TO THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

LONG TERM...
SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS THE STORM SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME FROM THEIR PEAK
SPEEDS ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR TO KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT OVER
ANY SNOWPACK THAT DEVELOPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE BENIGN COMPARED TO THE START OF
THIS WEEK. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A WARMUP FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON ANY SNOWCOVER. THE LOW WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A SERIES OF WEAKER
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE MAIN LOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS TO CONTINUALLY REINFORCE THE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.  FINALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED RESULTING IN DRY AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  22  30  18  45 /  20 100  50   0   0
TULIA         64  24  30  20  43 /  20 100  80   0   0
PLAINVIEW     67  26  30  22  45 /  10 100  80   0   0
LEVELLAND     67  26  34  25  52 /   0  80  40   0   0
LUBBOCK       69  27  33  26  50 /   0  70  70   0   0
DENVER CITY   68  28  39  27  56 /   0  20  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  28  37  27  54 /   0  30  30   0   0
CHILDRESS     67  31  33  27  45 /  10  70  90  20   0
SPUR          74  31  33  29  51 /   0  30  80   0   0
ASPERMONT     75  34  35  30  54 /  10  40  50   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>032.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>026.

&&

93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
324 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2013

TXZ021>044-242130-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
324 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AREA. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. IN ADDITION
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY CAUSE
NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN AREAS WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.