Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
259 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...
THE DRYLINE WAS LOCATED ON A LINE FROM ABOUT TURKEY TO LAKE ALAN
HENRY AT 230 PM. TO THE WEST...DEEP MIXING WAS MAKING FOR
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
20S-40S. SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAD PRODUCED AN AREA OF DEVELOPING CUMULUS AND WEAK RADAR
RETURNS IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY CATCH
UP TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE OUT EAST...AND LIKELY SPARK
LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE...WIND
GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL KICK IN THIS EVENING AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGHLIGHTED AREAS...PRODUCING
AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT BEFORE STORM ROOTS BECOME ELEVATED
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. HAIL WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
THREAT AS STORM BASES INCREASE IN HEIGHT AND MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT. STORMS WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS FORCING AND
INSTABILITY WANE.

DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS A LEE TROUGH THAT WILL PULL THE
DRYLINE EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND
ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AREAWIDE UNDERNEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT
WILL BRING US THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...WILL BE WELL NE OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE SAID TROUGH WILL REMAIN BACK ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS...WHICH MAY BE OF IMPORTANCE THIS WEEKEND. WILL GET TO
THAT LATER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH
PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.
THIS IS COURTESY OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PROMOTING INCREASING
HEIGHT FIELDS IN ADDITION TO 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO AOA 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THE DRYLINE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS HENCE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL ENVELOP THE CWA /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 20-40 DEGREE RANGE/. WITH ABOVE NORM TEMPS COMBINED WITH RHS
DIPPING TO 10-15...AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY WSW WINDS WILL CREATE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY ON THE
CAPROCK. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. THESE WARM CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE NEAR THE HIGH PLAINS SENDS DOWN A
BREEZY FROPA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COOLING
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S. MODELS HINT AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT /DEWPOINTS IN THE 40-60 DEGREE
RANGE/. IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG
COUNTRY AREAS SAT EVENING WHERE THE BEST PRECIP AND MOISTURE AXIS
WILL LIKELY RESIDE. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SRN ZONES SAT EVENING-SUN AFTN...GIVEN ITS NEAREST TO THE FROPA
AND THEREFORE SOME PRECIP COULD NEAR THE SAID AREA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UA RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
THE CENTER NOTED FROM NE OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
UPTICK IN HEIGHT FIELDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM FROM THE 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S BY MID-WEEK. THE DRYLINE WILL
RETREAT TO ERN NEW MEXICO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN A 20-30 KT LLJ
FILTERING IN A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONCURRENTLY...AN EMBEDDED
IMPULSE ROUNDING THE CENTER OF THE SAID RIDGE IS SHOWING TO BE THAT
SYNOPTIC SPARK FOR CI ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE IMPULSE IS AND PRECIP
IS SHOWN TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...AS THE MEAN FLOW IS OUT OF THE WEST. THE DRYLINE WILL
SETTLE ON THE CAPROCK BY MID-WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL QPF SIGNALS
BEING DISPLAYED OFF THE CAPROCK. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP IS NOT HIGH
ATTM...SINCE THE UA RIDGE /AND ACCOMPANIED SUBSIDENCE/ IS RATHER
STRONG SO NOT SURE IF THE CAP WILL INDEED WEAKEN/BREAK. AS A
RESULT...8-10 PERCENT POPS APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR NOW AND WILL AWAIT
LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF MENTIONABLE POPS IS INDEED WARRANTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE CAPROCK AND
LOW TO MID TEENS EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY NEED A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS A
LACK OF FUELS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.

ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON THE
CAPROCK FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS WARM 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORM...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE 8-10 PERCENT RANGE AND
20-FOOT WSW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MENTION OF
THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ATTM...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  92  59  96  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         58  92  60  96  56 /  10   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     59  94  62  96  58 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     61  94  64  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       62  96  65  98  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  95  64  98  62 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    61  95  63  99  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     66  96  67  98  65 /  30   0   0  10  10
SPUR          66  96  65  97  65 /  20   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     70  96  69 100  73 /  30   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31/29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

TXZ021>044-301645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1132 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF A TURKEY TO PADUCAH LINE. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON... AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP... WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXIST ACROSS HALL...CHILDRESS AND COTTLE COUNTIES.

FIRE WEATHER

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 27 CORRIDOR FROM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
252 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

TXZ024-292015-
BRISCOE-
252 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BRISCOE  COUNTY...

AT 248 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SILVERTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3475 10104 3457 10095 3434 10133 3448 10147
      3475 10132
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 230DEG 22KT 3447 10132

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             SILVERTON               34.47N 101.30W
05/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       BRISCOE            TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1300271

CALDRICH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
315 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             4 E LOCKNEY             34.12N 101.37W
05/29/2013  E1.75 INCH       FLOYD              TX   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1300272

CALDRICH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     TORNADO          1 S TURKEY              34.39N 100.90W
05/29/2013                   HALL               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POSSIBLE LANDSPOUT REPORTED BY TURKEY FIRE DEPT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1300273

CALDRICH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>