Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
356 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED POTENTIALLY SEVERE TS STILL ON TARGET LATE THIS AFTN AND
THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. AT 20Z THE DRYLINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR A MEMPHIS TO RALLS TO O'DONNELL LINE WHILE SATELLITE
SHOWED A QUICKLY DEVELOPING CU FIELD EAST TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK.
VISUALLY MUCH OF THE CU OF THE MODERATE TO TOWERING VARIETY. AS
SUCH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE FCST FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY COULD BE INTERESTING WITH POTENTIALLY A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF
ACTIVE WEATHER. THE FIRST IS TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODELS
GENERATING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SWRN ARIZONA
MID-AFTERNOON TODAY. THE SECOND PERIOD COMES IN THE AFTN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DRYLINE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE
OVER THE CNTL ROCKIES TUESDAY WILL HELP HOLD THE DRYLINE FURTHER
WEST TUESDAY AFTN WHILE LOWERING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THE CAP MAY BE
EASIER TO BREAK. CONTINUE TO THINK THAT CHANCE POPS JUSTIFIED FOR AT
LEAST THE NERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH A REASONABLY HIGH
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE
MORNING CONVECTION...SHOULD IT DEVELOP...END UP AFFECTING THE AFTN
SET UP. THAT ONE POSSIBILITY ENOUGH TO KEEP FROM RAISING POPS TOWARD
40 OR 50 PCT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
REGION. A 100+ KNOT UPPER JET STREAK WILL DIVE THROUGH THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS FEATURE GIVING IT A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION AND
SUBSEQUENTLY PLACING WEST TEXAS IN VICINITY OF THE ASCENDING LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP TO
40-50 KNOTS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS INCREASING FLOW
ALOFT...PROMOTING INCREASING WESTERLY BULK SHEAR VECTORS APPROACHING
40-50 KNOTS AT TIMES. ORTHOGONAL NATURE OF THESE VECTORS TO THE
RETREATING DRYLINE MAY SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLIER IN THE
EVENING BECOMING ELEVATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS.
MAY SEE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT EARLY IN THE EVENING...BEFORE LARGE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS BECOME THE MAIN IMPACTS. STORMS WILL LIKELY MESH
INTO A COMPLEX AS THEY TURN INTO THE INCREASING MOIST AXIS PROVIDED
BY THE LOW LEVEL JET...ALLOWING ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY WILL
MAINTAIN STORM CHANCES...BUT FARTHER EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE CONFINED
FARTHER EAST MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. CONVECTION THAT GETS GOING WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED AS A
LEE TROUGH PUSHES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

RISING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING IN WAKE OF THE DRYLINE
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED THURSDAY. EVEN IF THE DRYLINE CAN
HOLD UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. FRIDAY/S CHANCES WILL
RESIDE ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE
NORTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY
OR INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING ITS EFFECTIVENESS ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AT
THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE HOPEFUL MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SET IN AND PROMOTE WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS DEEP
MIXING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE DRYLINE...MAINLY WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 27/US 87 CORRIDOR. THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE
ENHANCED FROM ANY LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.
RED FLAG MINUTES WILL INCREASE FARTHER EAST INTO THURSDAY BEHIND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VEERING WINDS AND PUSHING THE DRYLINE YET FARTHER
EAST AND OFF THE CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  65  91  60  92 /  10  10  20  30  20
TULIA         95  67  90  63  89 /  10  10  30  30  20
PLAINVIEW     97  69  89  64  90 /  10  10  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     97  67  91  64  93 /  10  10  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       98  70  90  66  92 /  10  10  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   96  64  92  64  93 /  10  10  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    96  66  91  65  93 /  10  10  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     99  72  89  69  86 /  20  20  30  30  40
SPUR          96  69  90  67  88 /  20  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     96  72  91  70  87 /  10  20  30  30  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07/31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

TXZ021>044-281630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1120 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
MEMPHIS TO POST. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE VALUES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL CREATE A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WHILE A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS
DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

FIRE WEATHER

ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE WHERE VERY LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
OCCUR ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS MORE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE...WHICH WILL AT TIMES BISECT THE SOUTH PLAINS. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...WHILE LIGHTNING-CAUSED FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS.

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