Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  86  60  81  60 /  40  50  30  20  20
TULIA         63  84  62  81  61 /  50  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     64  85  63  81  62 /  60  50  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  86  64  81  61 /  50  50  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       66  84  65  82  64 /  60  50  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   63  86  64  81  61 /  30  50  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    64  86  65  82  62 /  50  50  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     65  84  66  83  66 /  60  30  30  20  20
SPUR          67  82  66  82  64 /  60  50  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  84  67  83  68 /  60  30  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ029-035-036.

&&

33/93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1108 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

TXZ021>044-241615-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1108 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAIN...CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS. AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE 8 PM THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
ACROSS TO THE CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS. THE SLOW STORM MOTION WILL
PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER THIS EVENING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND ACROSS HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
408 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             AFTON                   33.76N 100.82W
05/23/2013  E1.75 INCH       DICKENS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1300226

CALDRICH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
410 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     TSTM WND GST     CROSBYTON               33.64N 101.24W
05/23/2013  E60 MPH          CROSBY             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1300227

CALDRICH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
412 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             5 N DICKENS             33.69N 100.84W
05/23/2013  E1.75 INCH       DICKENS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1300229

CALDRICH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
439 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE GIRARD            33.35N 100.66W
05/23/2013                   KENT               TX   SKYWARN SPOTTER

            3 BRANCHES DOWN..SHEET METAL BLOWING

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1300230

CALDRICH

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