Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...
FAVORABLY-TIMED S/W TROUGH IS ON SCHEDULE TO HELP GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SATELLITE
PRODUCTS REVEAL A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF LIFT SPREADING EAST OF A LINE
FROM RATON SOUTH TO CLINES CORNERS COMPLETE WITH EMBEDDED STORMS.
KCQC RECENTLY MEASURED A 50 KNOT CONVECTIVE GUST AND NLDN PRODUCTS
HAVE REGISTERED SEVERAL CG STROKES IN THE PAST HOUR ALONE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE AS WE STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO DEVELOP FIRST IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES
BEFORE EXPANDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RECENT LAPS DATA
INDICATE NEARLY 600 J/KG OF SBCAPE BEGINNING TO SPREAD TOWARDS
PARMER COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD BE THE UPPER LIMIT TO
INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN SLOWLY MIXING OUT DUE TO INCREASING
SWLY WINDS BEHIND A WEAK PSEUDO-WARM FRONT RECENTLY ANALYZED FROM
ABOUT AMARILLO SOUTH TO LAKE ALAN HENRY. SURFACE TROUGHING FARTHER
WEST IN ERN NM WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE
PARENT UPPER TROUGH AND SHOULD EASILY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISO
HIGH-BASED STORMS. A FEW SEVERE CONVECTIVE GUSTS REMAIN ON TAP GIVEN
DEEP INVERTED-V STRUCTURES...BUT ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE OF STORMS
WOULD LIKELY KEEP ANY SUCH GUSTS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN BEFORE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING DROPS THE AXE ON CONVECTIVE MIXING AROUND SUNSET.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...A MORE
VIGOROUS...ALBEIT DISTANT TROUGH WILL DRIVE A MODEST COLD FRONT
SOUTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PALTRY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS
NO THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS OR SENSIBLE WX WITH THIS FRONT. AXIS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MERELY GRAZE OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING
THE MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING EAST...SO AFTER SOME GUSTY A.M.
WINDS...WINDS ON THE CAPROCK WILL VEER WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BUT REMAIN E-SELY FARTHER EAST COMPLETE WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEST TEXAS WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD POSITIONED WITHIN A
REGIME OF SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW... HALFWAY BETWEEN A LARGE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A POST-
FRONTAL REGIME MONDAY NIGHT... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME
WESTERN CWA WHERE DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL SNEAK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT OF MONDAY'S EARLY MORNING FRONT...
VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA AS A SUBTLE SORT WAVE TRAVERSES WEST TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS SUCH... HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE THE EXTENT OF ITS IMPACT...
IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER REINFORCING
FRONT AND A TEMPORARY DELAY IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM...AS LEE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  FURTHER SOUTH... A LEADING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO LOCALLY ENHANCE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NE
NM AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY AID IN RAPID MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GULF AS
WELL... AND NOW BRINGS WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT OF THIS STRONG WARM
MOIST ADVECTION... AT THE VERY LEAST A BROKEN STRATUS DECK IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AND MAY EVEN RESULT IN A FEW
SPRINKLES BEFORE A PACIFIC FRONT RACES EASTWARD BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.  WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT... MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE CWA WELL BEFORE
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.  AS THIS FRONT PASSES... THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAPROCK.  LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SLOWER DRYING THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN
20-30 PERCENT AS OPPOSED TO 15-20 PERCENT IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT
THESE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE HASHED OUT IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE APPROACHING WAVE.

BEYOND THURSDAY... MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS THURSDAY'S LOW DEEPENS AND EXITS
THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND THIS POINT...AS THE LATEST
GFS SOLUTION IS TRENDING TOWARDS A MUCH MILDER AND MORE TRANSIENT
COLD SURGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS... THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE THE MORE BELIEVABLE SOLUTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
EITHER ONE AT THIS STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  68  34  66  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         38  66  32  66  40 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     39  67  35  67  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     41  71  42  72  43 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       41  70  38  70  43 /  20   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   45  73  43  73  45 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    43  72  42  73  45 /  20   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     44  66  36  70  40 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          46  69  38  73  42 /  20   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     48  69  40  74  41 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

93/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1243 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

TXZ021>044-181745-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1243 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE AND FIRE WEATHER

ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. STORMS WILL THEN MOVE EASTERLY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE GREATEST
THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 60 MPH. ALSO...OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
RAISE THE THREAT OF A FEW WILDFIRES IN THOSE AREAS WHERE LITTLE OR
NO RAIN FALLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS VERY
BREEZY AND DRY WINDS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
514 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

TXZ022-023-027>029-033-034-172245-
BAILEY-CASTRO-COCHRAN-HALE-HOCKLEY-LAMB-SWISHER-
514 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
COCHRAN...HOCKLEY...LAMB...BAILEY...HALE...SWISHER AND CASTRO
COUNTIES...

AT 509 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 22
MILES NORTHWEST OF TULIA TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF LITTLEFIELD TO 12
MILES WEST OF MORTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 55 MPH AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THAT WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES. STAY AWAY FROM
HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3475 10194 3449 10155 3383 10203 3383 10208
      3376 10208 3371 10212 3340 10259 3370 10304
      3379 10304 3405 10264 3475 10213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 308DEG 42KT 3466 10207 3400 10249
          3373 10292

MRC

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