Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN CONVECTIVE TREND AHEAD
OF SMALL BUT INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIOD OF MVFR THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE BUT SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE EXISTS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR
TSTMS TO AFFECT KLBB /FM 12-15Z/ AND CDS /13-16Z/ THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO INSERT IN TAF ATTM. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES. FINALLY...BR/FG
MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM...
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE COUNTRY/S SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO BE THE MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME HIGH BASED RADAR ECHOES TO
OUR NORTH.  AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEST TEXAS AROUND MID
DAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY AS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
CANADA.  THIS WILL BECOME AN INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS YET ANOTHER STRONG LOW COMES ASHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN.  AS MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACARS PLOTS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ENHANCED WIND FIELD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
TROUGH...ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A STRENGTHENING
TREND AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
WITH TIME.  THIS IN TURN HAS ALREADY DRIVEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE.  THIS
WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN LIFT REGION AROUND SUNRISE.  THE
REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A NEARLY STATION MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX ACROSS WESTERN QUAY COUNTY NM WITH ENHANCEMENT IN THE
VICINITY.  AS THIS BEGINS TO KICK OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. AT PRESENT NLDN DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO AN OUTAGE
AND NO SFERIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE TTU LMA. IF IT CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED...WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE COOLER/MORE MOIST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MITIGATE THE
DOWNBURST THREAT. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AS A LEAD IMPULSE OVERSPREADS REGION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...DESPITE SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS...IT WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL TODAY AS
COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK.

LONG TERM...
BLOCKING RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION WITH UPPER
LOWS LOCATED ACROSS EITHER COAST. AFTER DEEP MIXING BEHIND A ROLLING
PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY DESTINED DRYLINE WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AS AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE BACKS THE DRYLINE
UP IN VICINITY OF THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS USHERING
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE
CREST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING RIDGE. THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PRESENT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE DRYLINE
LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. BEST AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS AREA. CAPPING WILL
ERODE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND LOW-MID LEVEL
COOLING INCREASES INSTABILITY ATOP A WARMING AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER. STORM CHANCES WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND CLOUD BASES BECOME ELEVATED.

BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL MOVE WESTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE DRYLINE STAYS PULLED BACK INTO NEW MEXICO OWING TO LEE TROUGHING
INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. A STRENGTHENING EML MAY
PRECLUDE STORM COVERAGE TO THE EAST INTO FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND...FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TO RIGHT ALONG THE DRYLINE.

QUESTIONS ARISE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TO WHEN
THE DRYLINE WILL START MIXING FARTHER EAST AGAIN AS TROUGHING
ENTERING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO SLIDE THE RIDGE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  51  88  57  87 /  50   0   0  10  20
TULIA         79  52  90  59  87 /  40   0   0  10  30
PLAINVIEW     80  54  90  61  88 /  40   0   0  10  30
LEVELLAND     81  56  90  63  90 /  20   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       80  56  91  64  90 /  20   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   81  57  90  64  94 /  10   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    80  57  90  65  91 /  10   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     78  56  92  63  89 /  20  10  10  20  30
SPUR          77  59  93  63  91 /  10   0  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     76  60  95  67  93 /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
502 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TXZ021>044-221015-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
502 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

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