Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
543 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

.AVIATION...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WHOSE FCST TRACK CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
SWD SET TO IMPACT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
CONDITIONS TO PROGRESSIVELY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. INITIAL ISSUE IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH AT BOTH SITES BY 02Z. NORTH WINDS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE NIGHT...PEAKING MONDAY AT
AROUND 35G50KTS. NEXT ISSUE WILL BE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH
ONSET AROUND OR A BIT AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND PUSH TOWARD WEST TEXAS...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING
PLAINS.

THIS EVENING...DUAL THREATS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
BEGIN TO FALL AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVER THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE SHORTER
FUSED OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...STRONGLY SHEARED PROFILES...AND IMPRESSIVE OMEGA
VALUES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE. KEPT CHANCES PULLED WEST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS WITH INITIALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE. FARTHER NORTHWEST...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A MEMPHIS TO
JUSTICEBURG LINE SEEING ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
EAST WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
POLAR FRONT IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA BY AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING SURFACE LOW.

MONDAY...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY MORNING
IN THE 12-18Z WINDOW. THIS WILL BE THE TIME WHEN THE H50 LOW
TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS LOW LOOKS TO CUT THROUGH THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS...BRINGING HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES ON ITS NORTHWEST SIDE
IN VICINITY OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS
ABUNDANT LIFT HERE WHERE A TROWAL AXIS WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW
ENCOMPASSING THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. IN ADDITION...EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE 12 HOUR H50
HEIGHT FALLS OF NEAR 200 METERS WILL TAKE PLACE BY AROUND
12Z...FURTHER OWING TO THE SYSTEM/S INTENSITY.

WITH THE CONTINUED TRENDING FOR THE LOW TO MOVE FARTHER AND FARTHER
SOUTH...HAVE INCLUDED THE TOP THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES IN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM SUNDAY EVENING TO 6 PM MONDAY EVENING.
BLOWING SNOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AS WINDS RAMP UP WITH PASSAGE OF THE POLAR FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...AS WINDS OF UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH COMBINE WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 60 MPH AT TIMES. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 6
INCHES AND ABOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...TO 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS.

THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ALSO SEEMS TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR YOAKUM
TO STONEWALL COUNTIES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT HERE WILL BE IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH BALLPARK. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA
HERE AS WELL...BUT WILL JUST MENTION THIS IN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY PRODUCT TO AVOID MULTIPLE HEADLINES AND CONFUSION.

OVERALL...EXPECT A RAW DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S...OVERCAST
SKIES...AND BLOWING SNOW.

LONG TERM...
AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW GOING ACROSS OUR NE ZONES UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING SO
AT THIS TIME WE ANTICIPATE THE HIGHLIGHTS ENDING AT 0Z. BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS...BUT WE
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
EXPECTED SNOW COVER AND MELTING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS OPEN WAVE SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE IMPACTS ASIDE FROM SOME INCREASED MID-LVL
CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING TEMPS PRETTY FLAT...HIGHS IN THE 40S. COOL
AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. IN FACT THE FLOW BECOMES NEARLY DUE NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY
WITH ANOTHER COOL SURGE. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
BUT RIGHT NOW CHANCES APPEAR SLIM. THE GFS PROGGED HIGH TEMPS OF 60S
AND 70S SAT AND SUN LOOK SUSPECT IN THIS PATTERN AND WE/LL KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  33  14  41  20 / 100  60   0   0  10
TULIA         25  32  15  40  22 / 100  90  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     27  32  19  41  25 /  90  80  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     27  34  23  53  25 /  70  50   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       28  34  24  50  26 /  70  70   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   29  40  26  56  28 /  30  30   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    29  36  26  54  27 /  40  30   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     32  33  22  41  26 /  70 100  40   0  10
SPUR          32  37  27  49  29 /  40  70   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     35  39  29  54  29 /  40  50  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ039>044.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>038.

&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

TXZ021>044-252145-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
338 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN
THE SOUTHEAST LOW ROLLING PLAINS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE POSSIBLE.

WINTER WEATHER

A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW INITIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE MOST
LIKELY ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM MULESHOE...TO SILVERTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE MOST LIKELY GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 FROM MULESHOE EAST TO PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA AND
PADUCAH...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FARTHER
SOUTH...TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS A ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST LINE FROM COCHRAN
TO KING COUNTIES. COMBINED WITH INTENSIFYING NORTH WINDS OF 35 TO
45 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH OVER ALL OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BECOME STRESSED BY THE
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME POWER OUTAGES.
TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND
SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF SNOW IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS THE WINTER STORM EXITS THE
REGION. THEREAFTER...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.