Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...
A HIGH-BASED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED IN THE DRY AIR JUST WEST OF BEST
SFC CONVERGENCE VCNTY OF THE DRYLINE. AS OF 215 PM CDT THIS CU FIELD
REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT FROM A VISUAL PERSPECTIVE...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
AND RADAR SHOWING SOME EVOLUTION TOWARD SHOWER STATUS. SITUATION
REMAINS ONE THAT SUPPORTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA MENTION WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH INDIVIDUAL MICROBURSTS. SUNSET SHOULD SEE THE END OF ANY STORM
THREAT. THE NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROCEED TOWARD MILD CONDITIONS WITH
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE ERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FCST AREA EAST OF THE DRYLINE OR SFC TROUGH.

FCST BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT WEDNESDAY WITH EXPECTATION OF A DAYTIME
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND THE COMPLEXITIES THAT COME WITH
THAT TIMING. A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT WITH NW WINDS WEST OF IT...BUT THE COLD ADVECTION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS
SCHEDULED TOWARD LATE MORNING FOR THE NWRN ZONES TO MID TO LATE AFTN
FOR THE SE. RESULT SHOULD BE A WIDE VARIATION IN HIGH TEMPS. MOS
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH THE 12Z RUN...AND WILL TREND THE
FCST THAT DIRECTION WHILE ALSO REMAINING JUST BELOW THE COOLER MET
NUMBERS. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK BEST FOR AREAS IN DEEPER MOISTURE TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SERN ZONES MAY HOLD
ONTO ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED. NORTH WINDS VERY NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY
ENSUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A 1045
MB SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES OUT OF COLORADO INTO THE PLAINS. PRESSURE
RISES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 MB PER 6 HOURS WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE HIGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST AT THIS TIME AS WELL...BUT NOT
HOLDING OUT HOPE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEANINGFUL AMOUNTS. A FEW
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ROLLING PLAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
PRODUCES ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH. COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL
CAUSE SOME CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION...WITH SLEET POSSIBLY
INITIALLY MIXING WITH RAIN AS A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE ERODES. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY THEN FALL WITH FURTHER COOLING BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE BY THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION FIELDS
LATELY ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE DEEP
LAYER FORCING OWING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE THE BIGGER STORY WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON MUCH OF THE CAPROCK WITH THE
ROLLING PLAINS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50 DEGREES WITH THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND SURFACE RIDGING PARKED ON TOP OF THE
REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE YET ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND PORTIONS OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY SHOULD BEGIN A WARMING TREND AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND RISING
HEIGHTS TAKE PLACE IN WAKE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. THE SYNOPTIC
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS A QUESTION MOVING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK PENDING THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF
THE PREVIOUS TROUGH AND DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  65  29  49  28 /  10   0  20  10   0
TULIA         53  67  31  50  29 /  10  10  30  20   0
PLAINVIEW     56  69  32  50  30 /  10  10  30  20   0
LEVELLAND     56  76  33  50  32 /  10   0  30  20   0
LUBBOCK       60  76  34  50  32 /  10  10  30  20   0
DENVER CITY   56  84  34  51  32 /  10   0  30  20   0
BROWNFIELD    57  86  34  51  32 /  10   0  30  20   0
CHILDRESS     62  76  39  52  35 /  10  10  40  20   0
SPUR          62  84  37  52  34 /  20  10  40  20   0
ASPERMONT     64  86  41  51  35 /  10  20  40  30   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07/31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1113 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2013

TXZ021>044-011615-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1113 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING ACROSS AREAS FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD GENERATE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST AND PEA SIZED HAIL.

FIRE WEATHER

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BECOME SUSTAINED IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND A LATE SEASON FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE CAPROCK COULD
THEN SEE A FREEZE EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A FROST OR LIGHT FREEZE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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