Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS NEAR MULESHOE WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LOCATED ALONG OR JUST NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 84 TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
LUBBOCK. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER WEST FOR THE SURFACE LOW LOCATION
THAT THE 12Z MODELS HAVE AND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ON WV SATELLITE CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO AND WILL ONLY PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP
PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT FOR STORMS THIS EVENING. WV LOOP ALSO SHOWS
DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BUT
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SOUTH OF BIG BEND HAS HELPED INCREASE MOISTURE
CONTENT JUST A BIT AND THIS WAS MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE RATHER LOW ACROSS THE
AREA...DIRECTIONAL TURNING NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG WILL BE
PRESENT AND THERE IS ENOUGH BULK SHEAR THAT CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE
TO ORGANIZE SOME ONCE IT GETS GOING. THE BEST AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BECAUSE CLOUD BASES STILL APPEAR RATHER
HIGH...MAIN THREAT INITIALLY WILL BE WIND GUSTS AND SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. SOUTHWEST AND ALONG THE LOW/BOUNDARY... DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES LOWER SO THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
STORMS ON TOP OF AN INVERTED-V PROFILE RESULTING IN SOME MICROBURSTS
AND BLOWING DUST WITH NEGLIGIBLE RAINFALL. MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING THAT A SECOND COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL SWING EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN A SECOND
ROUND OF ORGANIZED STORMS CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

BEHIND ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS.  THIS WILL
ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...NOT TOO MUCH BUT ANY AMOUNT HELPS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UNFORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH KEEPS THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS THAT SNEAK IN ALONG THE
TX/NM BORDER THANKS TO UPSLOPE FLOW INITIATING STORMS IN NEW MEXICO
AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PUSHING THEM INTO OUR AREA.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE ACROSS SE TEXAS WILL COMMENCE TO RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THUS PROMOTING
WSW FLOW ALOFT. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING
AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN TOMORROW NIGHT. PRECIP
APPEARS TO INITIALIZE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA THUS NEAREST TO
THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
GARNERING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /PROGGED PWATS NEARING 1.60
INCHES/ MAY RESULT IN CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE TOMORROW NIGHT-EARLY
SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES WHERE THE BEST
THETA-E AXIS WILL RESIDE. AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD
MIGRATION ON SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SW AND
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF E NM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO FILTER ACROSS WRN ZONES. FURTHERMORE...MODELS HINT
AT THE FRONT RETREATING TO NEAR THE FAR SRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING
WHICH MAY SERVE AS ANOTHER SOURCE FOR PRECIP. CONTINUAL SW FLOW
ALOFT ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ALLOW E NM
CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE ACROSS WRN AND PERHAPS CNTRL ZONES.
MENTIONABLE POPS TOMORROW NIGHT-SATURDAY APPEARS VALID...BUT HAVE
ALSO INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL ZONES ON
SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UA RIDGE WILL BE
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO A SWRLY
DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT /WILL THEREFORE AID TO MITIGATE CHANCES
FOR STORMS/. BY MID-WEEK THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MIGRATED TO SW NM AND
SE AZ WHICH WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO LATE WEEK AS THE
QUASI-STATIONARY UA RIDGE AMPLIFIES. LATEST RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
OVERNIGHT PRECIP SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION MID-LATE WEEK...THOUGH
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE NNE APPEARS VALID FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENINGS ATTM.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARMUP FROM THE 80S AND 90S ON SATURDAY TO THE
90S AREA-WIDE BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  85  63  88  66 /  30  20  30  20  20
TULIA         66  88  64  90  67 /  40  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  89  65  90  68 /  30  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  91  66  92  69 /  20  20  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  92  67  92  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   67  92  68  93  69 /  10  20  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  94  68  93  70 /  10  20  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  92  69  94  72 /  40  10  20  10  10
SPUR          73  95  70  94  73 /  30  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     75  96  72  96  74 /  30  10  20  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

14/29

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