Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
546 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES. THAT SAID...TSTM
COMPLEX IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY AFFECT KCDS AROUND 13Z
AND THUS HAVE ADDED MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE VICINITY AT THAT
TERMINAL. INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME TSTMS DEVELOP NW OF
KLBB BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION EXPLICITLY ATTM.
IT WILL BE WARM TODAY-CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL USA THIS MORNING
WITH A NOTABLE LOW COMING ASHORE THE OREGON COAST.  FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...NWP HAS HINTED AT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BUT
INDICATIONS THIS MORNING POINT TOWARD A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BIG BEND INTO THURSDAY.  WHAT DOES APPEAR IS
THAT A LIMB OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PACIFIC NW LOW.  THIS
WILL NO DOUBT CAUSE SOME DEGREE OF LIFT OVER THE AREA THOUGH THE
MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE WELL NW OF US. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WORKING IN OUR FAVOR...WE MUST TURN TO MORE
LOCAL EFFECTS TO ASCERTAIN IF WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION.

LEE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES CONTINUES WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN IN.  LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTHEASTERLY INDICATING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
BE STRONGER THAN TYPICAL.  THERE ARE NO CLEAR INDICATIONS OF ANY
BOUNDARIES IN NWP  WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF WEAK CONVERGENCE
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WINDS BACK A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.  BEST
THETA-E FIELDS WILL BE LOCATED WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
FCST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THINGS REMAINING CAPPED EAST WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  INHERITED FCST APPEARS TO CAPTURE NEWEST THINKING
QUITE WELL AND WILL ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS THIS
AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS
WHICH BECOME ESTABLISHED AS MUCAPE OF 2KJ/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 30-35
KTS WILL BE PRESENT.

LONG TERM...
THE SUBTROPICAL UA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING THE AREA
WITH ABOVE NORM WARMTH /MID TO UPPER 90S/. BY THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL GET SHIFTED EAST TOWARDS
NORTH CENTRAL TX/SW OK...COURTESY OF A BROAD UA LOW ACROSS THE NW
PACIFIC CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE. AS SUCH...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT NW OF THE CWA...FROM THE SWRN CONUS TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. SFC LEE TROUGHING DRAPED FROM SERN CO TO SOUTH
CENTRAL NM MAY BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH THE
TRANSPORT OF BAJA MOISTURE...TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND DIURNAL
HEATING. LOCALLY...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
DEVELOP...BUT PRECIP ACTIVITY BRUSHING ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES
IS PLAUSIBLE...WITH HIGH DEPENDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
SFC TROUGH. WILL HOLD ON TO MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE SAID AREAS
EACH AFTN-EVENING TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...WITH 10-13 PERCENT POPS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK...WARM CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE
/90S/ AS THE UA RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK ACROSS THE CWA EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS BY MID-WEEK. GENERALLY...DRY
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO DOMINATE DURING THE SAID RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD
PROPAGATION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAKNESS NOTED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE /LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE
FAR NWRN ZONES MONDAY EVENING/. NOT QUITE READY TO BITE ON THIS AS
THE NEED FOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD TO THIS WEAKNESS
IS DESIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  65  94  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         92  68  94  67  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     93  69  94  68  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  69  96  69  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  70  96  69  95 /  10  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   96  69  98  69  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    96  70  97  68  96 /  10  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     93  70  98  71  98 /  10  20  10  10   0
SPUR          91  70  96  71  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     96  70  98  72  98 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

TXZ021>044-200915-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
404 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 27
CORRIDOR. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.