Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Lubbock, TX

624 
WWUS54 KLUB 040840
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
340 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

TXC437-040849-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-130604T0900Z/
SWISHER TX-
340 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SWISHER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED EAST INTO BRISCOE 
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3449 10032 3458 10145 3475 10146 3475 10013
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 273DEG 36KT 3470 10056

$$

TXC045-075-191-040900-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-130604T0900Z/
HALL TX-CHILDRESS TX-BRISCOE TX-
340 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
BRISCOE...NORTHWESTERN CHILDRESS AND NORTHERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 400
AM CDT...

AT 336 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
MEMPHIS. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHWEST 
OF SILVERTON. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MEMPHIS AND ESTELLINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LUBBOCK AT 8067451290.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 10032 3458 10145 3475 10146 3475 10013
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 273DEG 36KT 3470 10056

$$

MRC

780 
WWUS54 KLUB 040852
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
352 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

TXC045-075-191-040900-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-130604T0900Z/
HALL TX-CHILDRESS TX-BRISCOE TX-
352 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
BRISCOE...NORTHWESTERN CHILDRESS AND NORTHERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 400
AM CDT...

AT 350 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED...PRODUCING 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS 
STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MEMPHIS. ANOTHER SEVERE 
STORMS WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF SILVERTON. THESE STORMS WERE 
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN BRISCOE AND NORTHWESTERN CHILDRESS  
  COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LUBBOCK AT 8067451290.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 10032 3458 10134 3475 10128 3475 10013
TIME...MOT...LOC 0851Z 279DEG 40KT 3466 10038

$$

MRC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PANHANDLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING KCDS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS A DISTURBANCE CONTINUES ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY IMPACTING KCDS IS LOW...HOWEVER...
AND NOT INCLUDED IN THE LATEST TAF. VFR TO DOMINATE OTHERWISE WITH
MODEST LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET 45-50 KNOTS OVERHEAD KLBB EARLY THEN SHIFTING EAST. STILL
BELIEVE SURFACE FLOW MIXED ENOUGH TO MITIGATE WIND SHEAR SO DID
NOT INCLUDE LLWS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OF
A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING THE
LLWS REMARK...BUT WILL BE WATCHING OF COURSE. ALSO...WATCHING
THUNDERSTORMS DRIFT EASTWARD SO FAR THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...STILL NO
INDICATION THESE WILL TURN SOUTH WHILE LATEST HRRR AND RAP ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT. SINCE WE ARE WITHIN THE 9 HOUR WINDOW WE CHOSE TO
LEAVE TS MENTION OUT DUE TO UNCERTAIN CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WE ARE WATCHING IS IN EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THAT
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING A COLD POOL THAT SHOULD ALLOW PROGRESSION
PERHAPS CLOSE TO THE TEXAS LINE...THOUGH SOLUTIONS ALSO DIVERGE
REGARDING WHAT OCCURS NEXT THERE AS WELL. ANYWAY... WILL UPDATE AS
NEEDED. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGE/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SW KS INTO NE NM. OTHER ISOLD STORMS FORMING IN HIGHER
TERRAIN VCNTY RUIDOSO NM. A FEW CU ALSO STARTING TO FORM ALONG AND
EAST OF CAPROCK WHERE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES.

PRIMARY SHORTWV ENERGY FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ALONG DIFFUSE
DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR UPSCALE GROWTH IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN PNHDL INTO WRN OK. THESE STORMS SHOULD TURN SE INTO
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LATE THIS EVENING AND COULD BRUSH THE
FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA AFTER 7 PM. WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER AREA
OF ENHANCED LIFT ROTATING ACROSS WESTERN NM ATTM AND THIS FEATURE
COULD ALSO AID IN HIGH BASED STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS
TAPPING INTO REMAINING INSTABILITY ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING DRYLINE.
INITIATION FURTHER SOUTH ALONG SOUTHERN EXTENT OF DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH
LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF DEEP LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CONTINUES FROM TULIA SW TOWARD LEVELLAND. WITH A FEW
MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND POSSIBILITY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY
AND WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG CAPROCK HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS VCNTY
CHILDRESS. ALSO KEPT SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE AREA OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
PLAINVIEW AS NM ACTIVITY COULD SURVIVE TRACK EASTWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVERNIGHT MIXING LOW LEVELS AND
HELPING KEEP TEMPS UP. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY HOT DAY
TUE AS DRYLINE MIXES INTO ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS BENEATH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT. ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TUE AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY
EXITING OUR PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MID EVENING.

LONG TERM...
BY TUESDAY EVENING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 50KT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL MOSTLY BE LIFTING DRY AIR.
THEREFORE...CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST FOR A LONG
PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 00Z. THESE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL ALSO
KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL LOW LEVEL STRATUS NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE
PANHANDLE. THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY PASS OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS WEEK MAY BE OUR FINAL CHANCE TO MISS OUT ON RAIN
FOR THE SPRING SEASON. UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PLACE WEST TEXAS IN AN
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT REGION OF A 70KT JET. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO WEST TEXAS.
HOWEVER THIS DAY WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND MAKE A PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME. MEANINGFUL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE ABOVE THE
FRONTAL ZONE BY THE TIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GET A PRONOUNCED BOOST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST VALUES OFF THE CAPROCK. THEREFORE WE WILL
FINALLY GET TO SEE DEEPER WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. PROGGED WCD VALUES AT
THE MOMENT ARE BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4.0KM. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WINDS DO
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY BREEZY FOR A BONAFIDE HEAVY RAIN EVENT.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...CONVECTION AND SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BACKING MOISTURE UP TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO.
CONVECTION MAY THEN FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENINGS. BUT BETTER COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. A
LARGE SUMMER TIME RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL APPEAR TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE DEVELOPING AN
OMEGA BLOCK. JDV

FIRE WEATHER...
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST TUE AFTN WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTN RH
VALUES WILL END UP IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WHILE SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 15 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  97  62  85  57 /  20  10  10  20  40
TULIA         68  99  63  86  58 /  20  10  10  20  40
PLAINVIEW     69 102  64  89  60 /  20  10  10  20  40
LEVELLAND     65 102  66  95  61 /  20   0   0  20  40
LUBBOCK       69 104  68  95  62 /  20   0  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   63 103  67  99  62 /  10   0   0  20  30
BROWNFIELD    65 104  68  99  62 /  20   0   0  20  30
CHILDRESS     68 102  69  92  64 /  20  20  20  20  50
SPUR          69 106  70  98  64 /  20  10  10  20  40
ASPERMONT     70 105  71 101  67 /  10  20  10  20  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1001 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

TXZ021>044-050315-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1001 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

CONVECTIVE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
EXISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
THEN EXPAND TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1024 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

TXZ021-040400-
PARMER-
1024 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST EXPECTED FOR PARMER COUNTY...

AT 1018 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES WEST OF FRIONA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS SPREADING STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...WITH LOCAL
VISIBILITY BELOW A MILE IN BLOWING DUST...INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF PARMER COUNTY.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3475 10252 3454 10252 3443 10254 3448 10304
      3474 10303
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 271DEG 29KT 3470 10307

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

TXZ023>025-040830-
BRISCOE-HALL-SWISHER-
300 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HALL...BRISCOE AND SWISHER
COUNTIES...

AT 254 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN SWISHER COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 55 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 3446 10042 3458 10199 3475 10199 3475 10042
TIME...MOT...LOC 0759Z 272DEG 38KT 3473 10144

MRC