Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS43 KLSX 051725
WSWLSX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1125 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

...WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW AND ICE TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

ILZ070-074-079-MOZ074-075-084-085-099-052300-
/O.CON.KLSX.WS.W.0004.131205T1800Z-131207T0000Z/
IRON MO-MADISON MO-MARION IL-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS MO-
ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHESTER...FARMINGTON...SALEM
1125 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
  TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO
  HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 7
  INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* WINDS...NORTH AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROAD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND
  INCREASES IN INTENSITY. THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY WILL
  CONTINUE THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW...
SLEET AND ICE IS EXPECTED.

&&

$$

ILZ064-065-069-101-102-MOZ065-072-073-052300-
/O.CON.KLSX.WW.Y.0009.131205T1800Z-131207T0000Z/
BOND IL-CLINTON IL-CRAWFORD MO-FAYETTE IL-JEFFERSON MO-MONROE IL-
ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLEVILLE...VANDALIA
1125 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
  TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
  CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG 
  WITH A LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND
  INCREASES IN INTENSITY. THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY WILL
  CONTINUE THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...SUCH AS SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND RAIN. IT ONLY TAKES A SMALL AMOUNT OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE ROADS...BRIDGES...SIDEWALKS...AND PARKING
LOTS ICY AND DANGEROUS. IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO TELL WHEN ICE
BEGINS TO FORM...SO DO NOT BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD.

&&

$$

CVKING

000 
WWUS43 KLSX 052202
WSWLSX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
402 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

...WINTER STORM BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

ILZ070-074-079-MOZ074-075-084-085-099-061100-
/O.CON.KLSX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
IRON MO-MADISON MO-MARION IL-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS MO-
ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHESTER...FARMINGTON...SALEM
402 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS
  EVENING AS THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN INTENSITY. THE
  ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. THE RAPID ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...
MAKE SURE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. BEGIN YOUR TRAVEL WITH A TANK FULL
OF GAS...AND CARRY A WINTER STORM KIT WHICH INCLUDES A SHOVEL...
FLASHLIGHT...CELLPHONE...AND BLANKETS OF EXTRA WARM CLOTHING.

&&

$$

ILZ064-065-069-101-102-MOZ065-072-073-061100-
/O.CON.KLSX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
BOND IL-CLINTON IL-CRAWFORD MO-FAYETTE IL-JEFFERSON MO-MONROE IL-
ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLEVILLE...VANDALIA
402 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS
  EVENING AS THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN INTENSITY. THE
  ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ROADS MAY RAPIDLY BECOME
SLIPPERY ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD PLAN FOR A
SLOWER THAN NORMAL TRIP. BE ESPECIALLY ALERT WHEN APPROACHING
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND CURVES. 

&&

$$

CVKING

000 
WWUS43 KLSX 060930
WSWLSX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES THE HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY...

ILZ069-101-102-MOZ065-072-073-070000-
/O.UPG.KLSX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KLSX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
CLINTON IL-CRAWFORD MO-JEFFERSON MO-MONROE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
WASHINGTON MO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BELLEVILLE
330 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE 
  THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL RESULT FROM THE
  HEAVY SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. THE RAPID ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...
MAKE SURE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. BEGIN YOUR TRAVEL WITH A TANK FULL
OF GAS...AND CARRY A WINTER STORM KIT WHICH INCLUDES A SHOVEL...
FLASHLIGHT...CELLPHONE...AND BLANKETS OF EXTRA WARM CLOTHING.

&&

$$

ILZ070-074-079-MOZ074-075-084-085-099-070000-
/O.CON.KLSX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
IRON MO-MADISON MO-MARION IL-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS MO-
ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHESTER...FARMINGTON...SALEM
330 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 13 INCHES OF SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL RESULT FROM THE
  HEAVY SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. THE RAPID ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...
MAKE SURE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. BEGIN YOUR TRAVEL WITH A TANK FULL
OF GAS...AND CARRY A WINTER STORM KIT WHICH INCLUDES A SHOVEL...
FLASHLIGHT... CELLPHONE...AND BLANKETS OF EXTRA WARM CLOTHING.

&&

$$

ILZ100-MOZ059-062>064-070000-
/O.EXA.KLSX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-MADISON IL-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EDWARDSVILLE...ST LOUIS...UNION
330 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL RESULT FROM THE
  SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ROADS MAY RAPIDLY BECOME
SLIPPERY ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD PLAN FOR A
SLOWER THAN NORMAL TRIP. BE ESPECIALLY ALERT WHEN APPROACHING
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND CURVES.

&&

$$

ILZ064-065-070000-
/O.CON.KLSX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...VANDALIA
330 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL RESULT FROM THE
  SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ROADS MAY RAPIDLY BECOME
SLIPPERY ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD PLAN FOR A
SLOWER THAN NORMAL TRIP. BE ESPECIALLY ALERT WHEN APPROACHING
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND CURVES.

&&

$$

TES

000 
WWUS43 KLSX 062135
WSWLSX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER STORM ENDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

ILZ079-101-102-MOZ065-072>075-084-085-099-062245-
/O.CAN.KLSX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
CRAWFORD MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-
REYNOLDS MO-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-
WASHINGTON MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLEVILLE...CHESTER...FARMINGTON
335 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING.

THE SNOW HAS ENDED.

$$

ILZ100-MOZ059-062>064-062245-
/O.CAN.KLSX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-MADISON IL-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EDWARDSVILLE...ST LOUIS...UNION
335 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE SNOW HAS ENDED.

$$

ILZ069-070-074-070000-
/O.CON.KLSX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
CLINTON IL-MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SALEM
335 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS
  EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
  SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL RESULT FROM THE
  SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. THE RAPID ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...
MAKE SURE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. BEGIN YOUR TRAVEL WITH A TANK
FULL OF GAS...AND CARRY A WINTER STORM KIT WHICH INCLUDES A
SHOVEL... FLASHLIGHT... CELLPHONE...AND BLANKETS OF EXTRA WARM
CLOTHING.

&&

$$

ILZ064-065-070000-
/O.CON.KLSX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...VANDALIA
335 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS
  EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 5 INCHES
  OF SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL RESULT FROM THE 
  SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ROADS MAY RAPIDLY BECOME
SLIPPERY ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD PLAN FOR A
SLOWER THAN NORMAL TRIP. BE ESPECIALLY ALERT WHEN APPROACHING
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND CURVES.

&&

$$

CVKING

000 
WWUS43 KLSX 062258
WSWLSX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
458 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

ILZ069-070-074-070000-
/O.CAN.KLSX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
CLINTON IL-MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SALEM
458 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING.

SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. 

$$

ILZ064-065-070000-
/O.CAN.KLSX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...VANDALIA
458 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. 

$$

GLASS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
334 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2013

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 334 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2013

Focus remains on wintry precip today through Friday as to shortwaves
moves over the Arctic airmass building across the region.  The first
shortwave is right over the gulf of California at this time and will
be moving rapidly northeast toward our area through the morning.
Unfortunately it looks like it won't quite make it into U.S.
airspace so we can sample it with radiosondes for the 12Z models.
Here's hoping the Mexican National Meteorological Service can get
some sondes into it this morning...please...por favor.

This morning's update is basically a refinement of earlier
forecasts.  The northern edge of the precipitation looks to be very
sharp for this event.  This is due at least partially to the very
dry air that is pushing into the region with the Arctic high.  The
precipitation will come primarily in two waves.  The first arriving
late this morning or early afternoon as the shortwave arrives.
Latest guidance is now showing some low to mid level frontogenesis
along the thermal gradient draped across the area from around 850mb
up to 700mb.  This should enhance precipitation allowing for greater
liquid equivalents today and this evening.  While the precip will
likely taper off tonight, it probably won't end entirely across the
eastern Ozarks. The second wave will move in Friday morning as
another slug of vorticity is ejected northeast out of the base of
the deep longwave trof over the western U.S.  This should be all
snow, and there is now an 850mb reflection of the wave which ripples
up from Arkansas over the Boot Heel of Missouri causing significant
moisture convergence along the baroclinic zone over the southern
portion of the CWFA.  Have boosted snowfall totals down there
accordingly, but again the north-south gradient of accumulation will
be very tight.

Expect the gradient to stretch from near Osage Beach east-northeast
across the St. Louis Metro area up to near Litchfield Illinois.
Across the gradient snowfall amounts will go from 0 to 1-3 inches of
snow with a little sleet mixed in.  Further southeast from near Cuba
to around Vandalia expect 3-5 inches of sleet and snow, with around
6 inches of snow stretching from Salem Illinois down through Sparta
and Farmington. Across our far southern counties it looks
particularly messy with freezing rain and sleet at the outset,
mixing and changing to snow tonight.  Look for about 2/10 of an inch
of ice with 5-7 inches of sleet and snow.  Have laid out advisories
and warnings accordingly.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2013
(Thursday through Saturday)

Focus thru this period will be the approaching system, which is
expected to bring the first snow of the season to the southern third
to half of the CWA.

The 12z mdls are in remarkably good agreement thru this period with
respect to mass fields. Thermal profiles are not far off either, but
there are some important differences. There are also some big
differences regarding precip placement.

For the past couple of days, the NAM has been the farthest N with
precip, until last night. The NAM has now trended further S and SE
with the precip and it continues to be the furthest SE. The
GFS/ECMWF have taken the middle of the road solns with the GEM an
outlier to the N and NW. Have generally followed a consensus of the
GFS/ECMWF which has good support with the local WRF trending away
from the NAM soln and twd the GFS.

This soln suggests precip starting with either RA or FZRA late Thurs
morning across far srn portions of the CWA with precip spreading NE
and gradually working nwd during the afternoon. As CAA continues
thru the day, precip will gradually change over from FZRA to IP and
eventually to all SN by 06z Fri. Further N, roughly a Cuba, MO to
Cahokia, IL to Vandalia, IL line, is expected to remain all SN thru
the event. However, this is on the nrn fringes of the precip shield
and will likely still see lower amounts due to that.

Precip is expected to be in two waves. The first wave is expected to
enter the CWA Thurs late morning and continue thru Thurs evening.
After a lull lasting thru about mid Fri morning, another round of
precip is expected, but p-type shud be all SN.

Have increased SN amounts further S where higher rates are expected
with higher SLRs mainly Fri with the second wave. This SN will be on
top of what IP accumulates during the precip change Thurs night.
Have not added this to the forecast yet, but mdls suggest a few
hours of thunder will be possible across the srn couple tier of
counties Thurs afternoon, possibly into early evening while IP is
expected. This could lead to higher sleet/snow totals than is
currently depicted, but this will largely be a nowcast feature.

With general mdl consensus shifting precip further S, have lowered
amounts across the nrn half of the CWA, but kept lower POPs going
for now. With some uncertainty and due to the prev forecast, have
kept POPs higher, further nwd to keep some consistency. If trends
continue, future shifts will be able to continue to push POPs and
amounts further S.

Have issued a Winter Storm Watch for srn and sern portions of the
CWA.

Tilly

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Few changes have been made to the extended for this package. A very
cold Arctic air mass will remain firmly entrenched over the region
through the extended period, with current guidance indicating that
much of the central CONUS will remain below freezing through at
least late next week.  GFS and ECMWF guidance continue to indicate
another round of wintry precipitation expanding northeastward across
the area beginning late Saturday night and tapering off on Sunday
night as the western CONUS trough begins to finally move eastward.
Despite the cold temperatures, soundings and critical thicknesses
from both the ECMWF and GFS continue to indicate the potential for
mixed precipitation mainly over the southern tier of the CWFA.
While the  GFS is bit more robust regarding the northward extent of
mixed precipitation (as far north as the I-70 corridor in Missouri
and Illinois), have elected to maintain the previous mention of a
mix of sleet and snow over the southern CWFA during the day Sunday,
as confidence for mixed precipitation is greater further south.

Phillipson

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2013

MVFR cigs will prevail through much of the overnight period with
gradual clearing of the lower clouds from west to east between
12-15z. Extensive mid-high clouds will be present in the wake of
the clearing lower clouds and some patchy light precipitation is
certainly not of the question on Thursday morning. The main thrust
of wintry precipitation however should be in the mid-late afternoon
from southwest MO into southeast/east central MO in the form of a
snow and sleet mix for the St. Louis Metro TAFS. The longevity of this
snow/sleet mix should only be 3-4 hours centered in the 22z to 02z
time frame and thereafter VFR conditions will prevail.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR cigs will prevail overnight into mid morning, followed by VFR
conditions consisting of extensive mid-high clouds until late
afternoon. There could be some patchy light precipitation on Thursday
morning, however the main thrust of wintry precipitation in the
form of a snow/sleet mix will impact KLSX beginning around 22Z.
The longevity of this snow/sleet mix should only be 3-4 hours
centered in the 22z to 02z time frame and thereafter VFR conditions
will prevail.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     29  19  27  11 /  70  70  60  10
Quincy          24  11  21   5 /  10  10  20   5
Columbia        23  13  23   7 /  30  30  40   5
Jefferson City  25  15  24   7 /  50  50  50   5
Salem           33  22  27  13 /  90 100  90  10
Farmington      30  18  27   9 / 100 100  90  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon today to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
     Crawford MO-Jefferson MO-Washington MO.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from Noon today to 6 PM CST Friday FOR Iron
     MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon today to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
     Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from Noon today to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
     Marion IL-Randolph IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
406 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-051200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
406 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW AND
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

TILLY