Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS St. Louis, MO

551 
WWUS53 KLSX 100916
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
416 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

MOC183-219-100926-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0132.000000T0000Z-130710T0945Z/
ST. CHARLES MO-WARREN MO-
416 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WARREN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST ST CHARLES COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3891 9111 3887 9110 3887 9097 3873 9072
      3856 9101 3858 9103 3859 9103 3861 9106
      3881 9123
TIME...MOT...LOC 0916Z 312DEG 20KT 3875 9097

$$

TRUETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

CONVECTION TRENDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN A BIT INCOHERENT TO SAY THE
LEAST...BUT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES SEEM TO
SUGGEST THAT VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION
FROM W MO INTO S IL WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TODAY.  OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES THERE HAS BEEN
A RAPID INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER N OZARKS...AND IT APPEARS THIS IS
TRYING TO "CONNECT" WITH SPOTTIER STORMS THAT DEVELOPED NW OF STL
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.  THIS ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE
VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.  MEANWHILE...
LINGERING CONVECTION OVER NW MO/SE NE CERTAINLY INDICATES THAT SOME
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE NEAR THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.

THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON....BUT FOR NOW
HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SE OF STL. AM A BIT
CONCERNED THAT THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY MAY SET UP THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER FAR S SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...AND IN
ADDITION STRONG W COMPONENT TO SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW S OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CERTAINLY LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...AMS WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
MUCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...AND ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
AREA...SO WILL NOT TOTALLY GIVE UP PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT EVEN IF MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY ENDS UP WELL SOUTH.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING TEMPS...MU80S IN OUR NW COUNTIES TO THE
LM90S IN OUR SE...WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH THE
CENTURY MARK.  HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HI FROM
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

TONIGHT...SCT TSRA ALONG A CDFNT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS
EVENING AS THE BDRY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY STALLS IN
AR.

THU THROUGH SAT...A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MO/IL BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT...BRINGING A SHORT BREAK FROM
THE RECENT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. COOLER AND DRIER WX WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SFC HIGH OVER IA/WI/IL SHIFTS EWD AND THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

SUN THROUGH TUE...A 594+ DAM H5 PRESSURE CENTER IS FCST TO BE
LOCATED OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF HOT WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PCPN. MODELS ARE FCSTG A BROAD AREA OF FAIRLY WEAK VORTICITY TO
BREAK OFF FROM THE ERN CONUS TROF AND THEN MOVE WWD ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HIGH. DEPENDING ON THE DETAILS...THIS
FEATURE COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISO-SCT PCPN ACROSS
THE SRN CWA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW DVLPG SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO
FAR.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

THE FRONT HAS BEEN QUIET TONIGHT SO FAR AND THIS TREND MAY
CONTINUE UNTIL TOMORROW LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER KANSAS WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE AREA IN
WEAKENING FASHION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. WIND TO SHIFT FROM
SOUTH TO WEST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH WIND EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH WIND TO BECOME WEST BY
DAYBREAK...WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE MORNING. THEN COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIGHT UP BY MIDDAY WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE TERMINAL IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND TO BECOME NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
359 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-110900-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
359 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

KANOFSKY