River Flood Warning 190, NWS St. Louis, MO

271 
WGUS83 KLSX 101506
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1005 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in Missouri...
 
  
        tHE Missouri River at 

         --St. Charles 



&&

MOC183-189-101535-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0190.000000T0000Z-130812T1630Z/
/SCLM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1005 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Missouri River at St. Charles.
* at 9:30 AM Saturday the stage was 24.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river crested below flood stage at 24.8 feet. 
  The river will continue to fall.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3865 9078 3859 9072 3881 9017 3886 9018 3891 9033


$$

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7am forecast
LOCATION           Stg  obs stg     08/11  08/12  08/13  08/14  08/15

Missouri River
  St. Charles     25.0   24.70      23.8   22.3   20.4   18.9   17.1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2013

.UPDATE:
Issued at 720 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2013

A weak cold front exists from NE MO to just S of the Chicago area.
This front has generated scattered SHRA/TSRA along it but is
showing signs of fading as it moves SE into an area that has been
under clouds all day and is slightly more stable, plus the sun is
going down, so do not expect this to hang on for much longer and
probably will not impact the forecast.

Further south into the I-70 corridor, the atmospheric column is
much more moist, with an upper level disturbance near central MO
creating an area of SHRA just ahead of it. Further downstream, we
are seeing sprinkles from a mid deck of clouds. We should see more
of the same heading into the night, with scattered sprinkles
downstream of the upper level disturbance, but as this disturbance
moves east down I-70, we will see enhanced chances for measuring
showers. This disturbance should exit SW IL shortly after
midnight.

Just south of the forecast area, an old stationary frontal
boundary exists and has been the main focus for waves of rain for
the past several nights on the cool side. This night will probably
not be much different, with another wave of SHRA/TSRA expected to
move into SE MO Saturday morning and make another run towards I-70
during the day before receding late in the day.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2013

Area of rain extending from central Missouri into southwest Illinois
has persisted on the north side of a side of MCV that is currently
tracking through southeast Missouri.  This rain will continue to
show a slow decrease in areal coverage and intensity as the vort
moves off to the east.  Focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms this evening will then shift closer to a front over
southern Missouri into southern Illinois.   RAP and Local WRF shows
low level forcing persisting along and north of this front most of
the night, so will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly
in areas along and south of I-44 in Missouri and I-64 in
Illinois.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2013

Primary concern for Saturday through early next week continues to be
timing and intensity of precipitation as quasi-zonal/northwest flow
pattern continues to control our weather.  Am continuing the
persistence forecast with high chance/likely pops across the eastern
Ozarks and extreme southwest Illinois, fading to low chance/slight
chance up along the I-70 corridor for Saturday.  This morning's
850mb analysis showed a strong dewpoint gradient along the I-70 with
northerly flow across northern Missouri and moist west-southwest
flow to the south of the gradient.  This gradient along with the
northerly flow feeding it is probably at least partially responsible
for the lack of northward progress for today's precipitation.  All
short range guidance keeps the 850mb dewpoint gradient in basically
the same place, hence the persistence forecast.  The gradient washes
out on Sunday allowing deeper moisture to filter back into the
region.  However, there appears to be a general lack of dynamic
forcing on Sunday with just some weak isentropic lift on 10kt low
level southwest flow.  With nothing obvious to focus convection,
will spread chance pops further north, but am not particularly
excited about going with pops higher than chance anywhere at this
time.  On Monday, a strong shortwave is forecast to drop down into
the Great Lakes region which should amplify the eastern trof and
push a cold front into the mid Mississippi Valley with a
corresponding increase in pops across the area.

Medium range guidance shows a sprawling high pressure system
building down across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region
late Tuesday into Wednesday.  This airmass will be cooler and much
drier than is normal for mid August.  850mb temps on the GFS are
progged to be around 10-12C...which would mix down to the low to mid
70s.  The ECMWF is somewhat warmer at 12-14C.  Given the
discrepancy...have opted to to stick with ensemble guidance with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low
to 60s.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2013

Scattered light showers and sprinkles will continue during the
early evening hours. There was scattered showers along a
secondary weak cold front extending from nrn IL sw through nwrn MO
and dropping slowly sewd. Most of this activity on the front will
likely dissipate later this evening with loss of daytime heating.
Focus for significant convection later tonight and SAT should
continue to be s of the taf sites. There should be mainly VFR low-
mid level cloudiness tonight...although there will be patchy MVFR
stratus clouds tonight along with patchy fog late tonight/early
SAT morning...especially at SUS...with a light nly sfc wind. Much
of the low-mid level cloud cover will shift s of the taf sites by
late sat morning into the afternoon with a n-nely sfc wind only
increasing to around 7 kts.

Specifics for KSTL: Should have intermittent sprinkles early this
evening. VFR low-mid level clouds will continue tgt into SAT
morning, then scatter out by late SAT morning or afternoon. Nly
sfc wind will become light later this evening...then increase to
around 7 kts SAT afternoon.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-101200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
701 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE WEATHER NOT
ANTICIPATED...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
DUE TO THE RICH LEVELS OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM THREAT ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

TES