River Flood Warning 185, NWS St. Louis, MO

907 
WGUS83 KLSX 081142
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
MISSOURI...

 
  BLACK RIVER NEAR 

      ANNAPOLIS 


.THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT FOR THIS FLOODING EVENT. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AND COULD PUSH RIVER LEVELS BACK ABOVE FLOOD. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE EVEN HIGHER THAN 
PREDICTED.  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS 
CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

MOC179-081212-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0185.000000T0000Z-130809T1127Z/
/ANNM7.1.ER.130807T2355Z.130808T0500Z.130808T0857Z.NO/
642 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BLACK RIVER NEAR ANNAPOLIS.
* AT 6:15 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 3:57 AM THURSDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 4.8 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
 
LAT...LON 3743 9087 3745 9078 3724 9074 3724 9079


$$

&&
                   FLD   LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG     08/09  08/10  08/11  08/12  08/13

BLACK RIVER
  ANNAPOLIS        8.0    7.21       4.8    4.0    3.6    3.4    3.2

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
640 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
HAS DEVELOPED. LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DECREASING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TONIGHTS MCS WILL IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI BEFORE 12Z. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN CASE IT PROPOGATES EAST FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH.

CVKING

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION...INTERACTING WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH MODELS AGREE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY. WHILE THE
FRINGES OF AN MCS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF
COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE CONTINUED POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 DUE TO DESTABLILZATION WITHIN
THE VICINITY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE RECENT SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FOR THURSDAY HAS REMOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...MAINTAINING THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE INTENSE STORMS AND
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA THIS
WEEK REMAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING YET ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN KANSAS
AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET...WHICH IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ROUGHLY DOWN THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF QUESTION REGARDING THE EXACT PATH OF THIS
MCS AS IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP...BUT AT
THIS TIME ONLY THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER AND CONTINUES TO SHUNT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH.

A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME...THUS THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE.  HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND KEPT SOME SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JP

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

VFR CONDITIONS...OUTSIDE OF TSRA...TO PREVAIL THRU THE VALID
PERIOD. A CDFNT...MOVING SLOWER THAN THOUGHT 24HRS AGO...IS
PUSHING THRU W-CNTRL MO TO CNTRL IL...AND HAS GENERATED SCT TSRA
ALONG IT. THIS TSRA HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT NOT BEFORE IT SLIDES INTO THE
VICINITY OF KCOU AND HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...WILL
RESET FOR THE NEXT ANTICIPATED PCPN EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT BEYOND
THE VALID PERIOD. SFC WNDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND STRENGTHEN A TAD OUT OF THE NE EITHER LATE TONIGHT
OR THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME FOG POTENTIAL OVER A WIDESPREAD
AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST FOR IFR VSBYS IN STL METRO...
WHILE FURTHER NW...DRYING FROM AIR BEHIND CDFNT SHOULD KEEP THE
WORST VSBYS IN MVFR RANGE. IF DRYING IS SLOWER TO PUSH S THOUGH...
COULD SEE IFR THERE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN KCOU.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD...
SFC WNDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY BECOMING NE ON THURSDAY...SHOULD
BE TOO WARM FOR FOG.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
411 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
411 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE GASCONADE RIVER AT RICH FOUNTAIN IS FORECAST TO RISE TO 33.4
FEET LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD
CREST OF 33.3 FEET SET ON DECEMBER 6 1982. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION PLEASE SEE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES LINGERING
OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2
INCHES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JP