Areal Flood Warning 25, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
318 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

CONVECTION OVER S MO CONTINUES TO PUSH EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY
SWD...WITH OBS NOW INDICATING THAT OUTFLOW HAS SAGGED INTO N AR.
OVERALL...INTENSIFY OF CONVECTION HAS DEFINITELY BEEN DECREASING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT POCKETS OF MODERATE AND HEAVY RAIN
ARE LINGERING IN A FEW OF OUR S COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE FFA IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES UNTIL 12Z....HOWEVER N OF
THESE COUNTIES ANY RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO WILL
CANCEL THE FFA IN THESE LOCATIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A DECREASE
IN PRECIP ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH A BIT
OF AN UPTICK ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT AND YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING.  PRECIP
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY HINGE ON HOW MUCH AMS WILL BE
ABLE TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNINGS
RAINS...AND AM BEGINNING TO THINK THAT DESTABILIZATION MAY BE
INHIBITED BY CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THAT MODELS ARE
FORECASTING TO LINGER OVER AREA.  A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AS SUGGESTED BY THE DAY1 OUTLOOK
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AND
STRONGER SHEAR...WHICH WILL PRIMARILY BE S AND SE OF CWA.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

COMPLETE LONG RANGE DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED BY 430 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

FOCUS WILL BE TSRA THIS EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A
RAPIDLY EVOLVING SITUATION TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP UPDATES GOING AS
NEEDED. NUMEROUS TSRA HEADED INTO STL/SUS/CPS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING TORNADOES/HAIL/HIGH WINDS. TSRA ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
E OF COU AREA...BUT ANTICIPATE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE
FIRST LINE THIS EVENING. UIN WILL SEE SOME ISOD TS WITH SHRA THIS
EVENING...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE SVR WX ATTM.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CRAWFORD MO-
     FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-
     OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST.
     LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-
     WASHINGTON MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BOND IL-
     CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
403 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
403 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LIKELY ON SATURDAY...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
WEATHER...SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY RAINFALLS OF OVER
AN INCH OR ANY FLOODING THAT THEY OBSERVE.

CARNEY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
149 AM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W SULLIVAN            38.22N  91.24W
06/01/2013                   FRANKLIN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHAWNEE FORD ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
158 AM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW WARRENTON          38.77N  91.21W
06/01/2013                   WARREN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 94 AND HIGHWAY B

&&

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
200 AM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HAZELWOOD               38.78N  90.36W
06/01/2013                   ST. LOUIS          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ON AUBUSHONE AND PESON ROADS

&&

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
202 AM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FENTON                  38.54N  90.45W
06/01/2013                   ST. LOUIS          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ON THE 4300 BLOCK OF THEISS ROAD IN SOUTH
            COUNTY

&&

GKS