Wind Advisory 56, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
125 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK...WITH AN INCREASE OF THE MARINE LAYER...DRIZZLE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND REDUCE MARINE CLOUDS AND CAUSE A
BIG WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SOME NEAR RECORD
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...A COUPLE OF WEAK "COLD" FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SATELLITE ESTIMATED PWATS ARE IMPRESSIVE, SHOWING A PLUME OF 1.5-2"
MOISTURE STRETCHING ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC. WHILE BY FAR THE
BULK OF THIS PLUME WILL FOCUS ON AREAS FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH, THE
WEAK FRONTS THAT COME THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH LEFT IN THE TANK TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. REALLY
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS SO OROGRAPHICS WILL BE THE KEY
FACTOR FOR US, MEANING NW SLO COUNTY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
GETTING SOME LIGHT SUMMER RAIN. POPS LOOK GOOD RIGHT NOW, GENERALLY
IN THE 15-30 RANGE FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND 10 OR LESS IN THE SOUTH
WHERE SPOTTY DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP OUT OF THE MARINE LYR. OVERALL, A
MINIMAL IMPACT EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE TWO DAYS
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RESULTING FROM THIS PATTERN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TUESDAY AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN THEIR ASCENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. STILL A DEEP
MARINE LYR IN PLACE TUESDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE SHALLOWER
WITH BETTER/EARLIER CLEARING.

THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEK FOR OUR AREA REALLY STARTS WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CO/NM EXPANDS WEST AND BEGINS A LENGTHY PERIOD OF
EXTREMELY HOT TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. ABOUT 10
DEGREES OF WARMING ON AVERAGE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
AND 4-6 DEGREES WARMING FOR THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...HEAT WAVE REALLY KICKS INTO GEAR THU/FRI AS
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. VALLEYS EXPECTED TO REACH TRIPLE
DIGITS EITHER THU OR FRI, WARMING FURTHER SATURDAY POSSIBLY 105-109
FOR THE WARMER COASTAL VALLEYS AND 110-113 IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
GFS SHOWS SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD BE BASED MORE ON
CLIMATOLOGY THAN ANYTHING ELSE AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP SAT AND SUN THE
SAME. AMAZINGLY LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING EVEN MORE WARMING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE RELIEF IN THIS VERY SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WAVE POSSIBLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL NO SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH SO AM KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. THE NEXT
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF MEXICO IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES TODAY (SOON TO BE
COSME) AND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A RELATIVELY HARMLESS NORTHWEST PATH
OVER THE PACIFIC AS THE WINDS AROUND THE STRONG SOUTHERN US HIGH
PUSH KEEP IT AND ITS MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
CLEARING TOWARD THE COAST...MORE SLOWLY FOR AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
PT CONCEPTION. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIME OF CLEARING FOR COASTAL
TAFS...AND THE L.A. COAST SITES MAY SEE BRIEF OR NO CLEARING OF MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SOME AREAS MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

KLAX..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL CLEAR BEFORE 22Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THE TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON MAY DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 20Z.
THE TIMING OF LOW CLOUD RETURN THIS EVENING MAY ALSO DIFFER BY UP TO
2 HRS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
924 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-241300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
924 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL DIFFERENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS WEEK AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 110 IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MW