Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Los Angeles, CA

833 
WWUS56 KLOX 182153
SVSLOX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
253 PM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

CAC037-182245-
/O.CON.KLOX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130818T2245Z/
LOS ANGELES CA-
253 PM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM PDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY...

AT 243 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL TO 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS 
STORM WAS 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SADDLEBACK BUTTE STATE PARK...OR 11 
MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE LOS ANGELES...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE 
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD 
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A 
SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 11766 3451 11776 3466 11780 3483 11782
      3483 11767 3482 11766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 178DEG 11KT 3473 11768

$$

HALL

258 
WWUS56 KLOX 182245
SVSLOX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
345 PM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

CAC037-182254-
/O.EXP.KLOX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130818T2245Z/
LOS ANGELES CA-
345 PM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LOS ANGELES
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM PDT...

THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3451 11766 3451 11776 3466 11780 3483 11782
      3483 11767 3482 11766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 178DEG 11KT 3489 11769

$$

HALL

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITS OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND
DEEPENS THE MARINE LAYER. THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL EXTEND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND LOCALLY INTO THE VALLEYS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK TO
BRING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST WEST
OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE HAS
MOVED IN TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND BUMP POPS UP
OVER 15 FOR THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS MAINLY TO GET A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST, THOUGH FORECAST THINKING HASN'T
CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS
SOUTH AND EAST OF US BUT BASED ON THE DECENT ACTIVITY GOING ON OVER
BIG BEAR IT'S NOT UNREASONABLE THAT EASTERN LA COUNTY COULD SEE A
STORM OR TWO BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.

CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW, THE CENTRAL COAST HAS A NON-ZERO THREAT OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THOUGH AGAIN MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE BETTER LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY EAST AND
NORTH. SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW THE MAGIC 15 LINE AND WILL
JUST MONITOR THE SITUATION TONIGHT.

IN BETWEEN, PRETTY QUIET. MARINE LYR IS BEHAVING MUCH LIKE IT HAS
THE LAST FEW DAYS, LINGERING AT MANY BEACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GRADIENTS STARTING TO SHOW TRENDS SHIFTING BACK TO ONSHORE WHILE
HIGHS TODAY ARE MORE OR LESS THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. EXPECTING JUST A
BIT OF ML DEEPENING TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH BUT
COVERAGE PROBABLY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, THEN CLEARING AGAIN TO
THE BEACHES MONDAY. A MB STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING A COUPLE
DEGREES OF COOLING MOST COAST/VALLEY AREAS MONDAY. STILL A LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY BUT LESS THAN TODAY AND
WILL KEEP TSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TUE/WED. POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
AT TIMES TUESDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE STILL STATIONARY UPPER
LOW. BUT AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANYTHING TO WARRANT POPS OR EVEN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITING THE STATE ON
THURSDAY TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE TROF AND THUS COOLER AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL
JUST INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP MONSOON
MOISTURE WELL EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTHWEST OF POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE AND DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID
LEVEL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AFTER 19/08Z OVER THE AREA. WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 19/20Z THEN MODERATE ONSHORE
GRADIENT AFTER 19/20Z. MARINE LAYER TOP WAS APPROXIMATELY .9KFT THIS
MORNING WITH AN UNORGANIZED CLOUD FIELD. THE MARINE LAYER TOP IS
EXPECTED TO DIFFER BY PLUS .2KFT WITH A LESS ORGANIZED CLOUD FIELD
MORNING MORNING.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 006 AND VSBY 2SM BR THROUGH 18/21Z THEN CHANCE
VSBY 4SM HZ BETWEEN 18/21-19/05Z. CHANCE CIGS 007 VSBY 5SM BR
BETWEEN 19/05-19/21Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 012 AFTER 19/21Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES