Gale Warning 8, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PST SAT MAR 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
A MARINE LAYER WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST TONIGHT...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AS A SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE
MORE ENERGETIC TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE WEAKER
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. WITH LITTLE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MORE NOTABLY IT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. A BAND OF CLOUDS OVER THE WATERS NEAR/NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION IS ALREADY PUSHING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LATER TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
PALOS VERDES PENINSULA AND THE OXNARD PLAIN.

MADE FEW CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS LIGHT
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND
THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SLO COUNTY. IN ADDITION...A WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL JUST BARELY MAKE CRITERIA WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A MUCH COOLER DAY SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
COAST. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INVERSION TO FORM AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP THE MARINE LAYER BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
COAST. AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WILL ALLOW LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT CHANGE MUCH EACH DAY...GENERALLY HOVERING AROUND NORMAL. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A LARGE AND COLD UPPER LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST ON TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE ON PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST SLO
COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGERING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AT THAT POINT...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE THAT AN UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL FORM AND
PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST...ENDING UP NEAR THE S CA/MEX BORDER
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT TO LOWER CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. MOISTURE IS ALSO SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
COLD AIRMASS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST AND
MOVE OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MODERATE
SOUTHWEST BY 03/12Z. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH
03/20Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 13.5KFT THIS MORNING AND
WILL VARY FROM 9-11KFT BETWEEN 03/12-03/20Z THEN DESCEND TO 9KFT
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY 03/20Z. WEAK ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMING MODERATE AFTER 03/21Z.

KLAX...CHANCE OF VSBY 5SM BR AND CIGS 015 AT TIMES BETWEEN
03/13-03/17Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 020 BETWEEN 03/17-03/20Z. OTHERWISE
MID/UPPER LEVEL BKN-OVC THROUGH 03/20Z.

KBUR...MID/UPPER LEVEL BKN-OVC AFTER 02/21Z. CHANCE SCT015 AFTER
03/13Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...SMITH
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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