Gale Warning 6, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PST MON FEB 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A SERIES OF LOWS WILL BRING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST AND COLDEST OF THE LOWS WILL
MOVE IN TUESDAY AND GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY WINDS
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM
SANTA BARBARA NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
BREEZY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOR A RETURN
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...HAVE CONVERTED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO
A WINTER STORM WARNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING SNOW AND
SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. AND
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...SANTA
BARBARA...AND SAN LUIS OBSIPO COUNTIES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000
FEET. GUIDANCE INITIALIZED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET STREAM OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA REASONABLY WELL. AND GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT BETWEEN SUITES AS WELL AS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO WIND WARNING
THRESHOLDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY WITH THE MAXIMUM AROUND 14 INCHES ABOVE 7000
FEET IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 7 INCHES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE KERN/VENTURA COUNTY LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW SEASON NORMAL AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL SHARPLY
WITH A WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIX AROUND 2000 FEET AND SMALL HAIL DOWN
TO SEA LEVEL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HAVE DECREASED POPS FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE DIFFERED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL AS BETWEEN SUITES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS SATURDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE/INCREASE AND
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AS SYSTEMS
PROGRESS THROUGH THE MEAN PATTERN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1800Z.
A SLOW CLEARING DAY STILL ON TAP FOR TODAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE
PICTURE TRENDS INDICATE LITTEL OR NO CLEARING NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AND A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
STRATUS WILL EAGERLY SURGE IN AGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ON THE REGION.

KLAX...A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KBUR...A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...30
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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