Gale Warning 40, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1220 PM PST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A FAST MOVING STORM WILL BRING RAIN AND LOW ELEVATION
SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR AND COLD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH BREEZY
OFFSHORE WINDS MONDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...NOT MAKING TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST. PROBABLY THE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM THAT HAS CHANGED THE
MOST IS THE TREND TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH/EAST TRAJECTORY,
AGAIN EXHIBITING MORE SIGNS OF AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE OF SYSTEM. EVEN
THE JET CORE HAS SHIFTED INLAND WITH A 140KT JET NOW ORIENTED DOWN
THE SALINAS VALLEY. WHILE MODELS HAD FOR A WHILE WAGGED A BIT
FURTHER WEST AND WETTER, THEY ARE NOW SHIFTING THE OTHER WAY AND
MODEL QPF HAS DROPPED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. SO THE
QUARTER INCH AMOUNT IS PROBABLY A HIGH END NUMBER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
AND PROBABLY ABOUT RIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SOME ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS. SNOW
AMOUNTS LIKELY A BIT LOWER AS WELL, PROBABLY 2-4 ON AVERAGE WITH
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STILL EXPECTING
SOME IMPACTS TO INTERSTATE 5 SATURDAY THOUGH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS LIKELY THE BIGGER ISSUE LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT AND POSSIBLY SOME BLACK ICE ISSUES SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO LAST A BRIEF FEW HOURS AS THE JET DRIVES THE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. LIKELY EARLY MORNING HOURS UP
NORTH AND MID TO LATE MORNING FOR THE SOUTH. A SECONDARY IMPULSE
EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND BRING LOWER
SNOW LEVELS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

PRETTY RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS AS COLD/DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BRISK
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS AND WILL BE ISSUING WIND
ADVISORIES FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES AND SOME VALLEY ZONES WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST. CONSIDERED A WARNING FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG BUT OPTED FOR AN ADVISORY AND WILL
LIKELY JUST GET SOME VERY ISOLATED NEAR WARNING LEVEL GUSTS. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LA/VENTURA MTNS GOES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAINLY FOR THE WIND AND POSSIBLE ROAD ICE ISSUES, THOUGH
GRAPEVINE AREA COULD SEE SOME WARNING LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLEAR AND CHILLY SUNDAY WITH 950 TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. MAY NEED
FROST ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTERIOR VENTURA VALLEYS
IF WINDS CAN DROP OFF QUICKLY ENOUGH. INTERIOR AREAS LIKE INTERIOR
SLO AND THE AV WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN GET OUT OF THE 30S WHILE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM (MON-FRI)...OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT MONDAY
MORNING FOR MOST AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZES ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST, INTERIOR SLO, THE AV, THE OJAI VALLEY, AND POSSIBLY
THE SBA AREA. LOTS OF RECORDS LIKELY BROKEN MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
THE KEY HERE AS A MODERATE SANTA ANA DEVELOPS. THE PLACES ABOVE ARE
TYPICALLY SHELTERED FROM THESE WINDS AND SHOULD NOT EXPERIENCE ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION. THE REST OF THE VENTURA/LA COAST AND VALLEY
AREAS WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST WITH THE WINDS DEVELOPING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHELTERED SPOTS COULD STILL
DROP INTO THE 20S, WHILE WINDIER AREAS STAY 10-15 DEGREES WARMER.
WIND ADVISORIES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF VENTURA/LA COUNTIES MONDAY. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HELP WARM UP A VERY COLD AIR MASS, THOUGH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.

OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TUE/WED THOUGH MUCH WEAKER. WINDS LIKELY
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. DAYTIME HIGHS SLOWLY WARMING AS WELL,
PROBABLY GETTING BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY WED. MODELS SUGGESTING A
SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK. WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER OR/WA WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SHIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
NORTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE MODERATE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG OVER THE AREA AFTER 07/12Z. INCREASING LOWER AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 07/09-07/18Z AS A SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND 4.9KFT THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIFFER LITTLE SATURDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE
AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 06/22Z THEN WEAK ONSHORE AND
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN 06/22-07/18Z THEN MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE GRADIENT THEREAFTER.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 060 -RA BETWEEN 07/11-07/15 THEN -RA VERY LIKELY
BETWEEN 07/15-07/19Z AND CHANCE CIGS 024. CHANCE CIGS 030 -SHRA
BETWEEN 07/19-07/21Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 050 BETWEEN 07/10-07/14Z THEN -RA LIKELY BY
07/14Z WITH A CHANCE CIGS 025 AFTER 07/14Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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