Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Los Angeles, CA

640 
WGUS76 KLOX 312223
FFSLOX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
323 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

CAC037-111-010030-
/O.CON.KLOX.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130901T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOS ANGELES CA-VENTURA CA-
323 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM PDT FOR THE 
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN VENTURA COUNTY...

AT 312 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR THE GRAND FIRE BURN AREA WAS 
WEAKENING...HOWEVER FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A THREAT AS WATER 
CONTINUES TO RUN OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT AROUND 
ONE INCH OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE GRAND FIRE BURN AREA...WITH UP TO TWO 
INCHES JUST TO THE SOUTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3466 11903 3482 11906 3482 11898 3481 11897
      3480 11897 3479 11888 3467 11883

$$

SUKUP/GOMBERG

103 
WGUS76 KLOX 312335
FFSLOX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
435 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

CAC037-111-312341-
/O.CAN.KLOX.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130901T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOS ANGELES CA-VENTURA CA-
435 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE MOUNTAINS IN 
NORTHEASTERN VENTURA COUNTY...

AT 430 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE GRAND FIRE BURN AREA HAD DIMINISHED 
AND THAT THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT HAD CAME TO AN END.

LAT...LON 3466 11903 3482 11906 3482 11898 3481 11897
      3480 11897 3479 11888 3467 11883

$$

SUKUP/KAPLAN

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
212 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND THE CUYAMA VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH VERY HOT WEATHER AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...VENTURA COUNTY MTNS OFF TO A DECENT START
TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF CELLS ALONG THE KERN BORDER. NOT MUCH
ELSEWHERE YET BUT EARLIER CLOUD SHIELD STARTING TO THIN OUT AND
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF AFTERNOON HEATING TO HELP FIRE SOME STORMS
OFF SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD. ALL THE STORMS MOVING
ABOUT AS EXPECTED, MOSTLY TOWARDS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY TO DRIFT OFF IN THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS. VISIBLE
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE CONVERGENCE LINE ACROSS THE WRN SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY NORTH THROUGH THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING SO WILL KEEP THE VALLEYS
TSTORM FREE.

TEMPS WERE COOLER TODAY IN MOST AREAS, THOUGH THERE WERE A FEW
ISOLATED WARMER SPOTS LIKE LGB, CMA, AND SBA. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING
ALMOST 3MB ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON SO THAT'S HELPING TO COOL THINGS
OFF, THOUGH HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHER SO THERE ISN'T MUCH RELIEF. THE
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY LABOR
DAY WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ALSO DROPPING A BIT. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE
BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN SOME CASES NOT DROPPING BELOW 80.
THOSE SHOULD BE DROPPING A FEW DEGREES AS WELL BY MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT NOT EXPECTING THE MARINE LYR TO REFORM SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION
WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE ALOFT AND SST'S NOW WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

WE'RE EXPECTING A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE SCENARIO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODELS AGAIN FAVOR NRN VENTURA COUNTY FOR STORMS BUT ALSO EASTERN
SAN GABRIELS. A LOT WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON EXTENT OF MORNING CLOUD
COVERAGE. ALSO LEAVING LOW POPS IN FOR INTERIOR SLO COUNTY, MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN END, AS STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH SOME STORMS OFF THE
SBA MTNS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
MONDAY EVENING BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT.

BY TUESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE PWATS AND 850 DEWPOINTS DROP BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTORMS OVER THE LA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START
TRENDING WARMER BY TUESDAY AS GRADIENTS TREND WEAKLY OFFSHORE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO EXPAND FROM THE EAST. GFS
STILL SHOWS A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS WED/THU TO HELP
THE WARMING TREND. COULD SEE WARMER VALLEY HIGHS AROUND 105. BY FRI
AND SAT ONSHORE TRENDS AND LOWERING HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING A COOLING
TREND. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE BY
AROUND THURSDAY BUT FOR NOW JUST GOING WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS
AND VERY LOW (<15) POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA
AFTER 01/10Z. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/12Z. DECREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
01/20Z. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE DESERT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN BETWEEN 31/18-01/06Z. TSTMS WILL MOVE NORTH 10 KT OR LESS
AND WITH TOPS 45KFT. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS WEST AND NORTH OF THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WAS CLOUD FREE WITHIN
THE BIGHT AND APPROXIMATELY .4KFT AND WILL DIFFER LITTLE SUNDAY
MORNING. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
31/20-01/03Z AND AFTER 01/20Z OTHERWISE A WEAK GRADIENT WILL EXIST.

KLAX...CIGS ABOVE 120 LIKELY THROUGH 01/17Z.

KBUR...CIGS ABOVE 120 LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-011300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
600 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME STORMS COULD DRIFT
INTO THE CUYAMA VALLEY. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. MUD AND DEBRIS FLOW
ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND RECENT BURN AREAS.

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE ANTELOPE AND CUYAMA VALLEYS...AND ACROSS
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.