Wind Advisory 4, NWS Chicago, IL

323 
WWUS73 KLOT 181425
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
925 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013


ILZ023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-181530-
/O.CAN.KLOT.WI.Y.0004.130418T1500Z-130419T0000Z/
KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-
BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...
GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER
925 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013 /1025 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 

$$

KREIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
341 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
235 AM CDT

A CONTINUED TEXTBOOK SETUP FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SIGNIFICANT...EVEN RECORD RIVER FLOODING...A RESPONSE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WHILE AREAL FLOODING REPORTS HAVE
BECOME A MORE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...ONLY
PART OF THAT IS LIKELY DUE TO A TEMPORARY EASE IN RAINFALL RATES
AND MORE OF IT DUE TO THE FACT IT IS DARK OUTSIDE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ESTIMATED BY RADAR OR OBSERVED THROUGH 1 AM THURSDAY ARE
BETWEEN ONE AND A HALF TO FOUR INCHES....WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
IN NORTHWEST LIVINGSTON COUNTY...THE PANHANDLE OF LASALLE
COUNTY...AND WESTERN LEE AND OGLE COUNTIES.

THE ELEVATED STATIONARY FRONT IS PARKED DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA WITH
CONTINUOUS -70C CLOUD TOPS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION TRAINING
ENE. IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS JUST INFERRED BY THE VAD WIND PROFILER ANALYSIS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH 70 KTS OF SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW OVER LSX AND
ILX...25 KTS AT LOT...AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT DVN AND MKX. THE
REPLENISHMENT OF MOISTURE ON THIS LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXTREME...WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDES VERY HIGH. AMBIENT MOISTURE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRACTICALLY OFF THE CHARTS...WITH PWAT VALUES RIGHT AT
AND POSSIBLY OVER RECORD APRIL LEVELS BASED ON THE HISTORICAL RAOB
RECORDS. A TONGUE OF 4C AND HIGHER DEW POINTS AT 700MB ON LAST
EVES RAOBS AND CONTINUED TO BE ANALYZED ARE DIRECTED RIGHT INTO
THE AREA...WHICH ARE AT LEVELS SHOWN TO REFLECT WARM SEASON RAIN
PROCESSES. REFLECTIVITY SINCE MIDNIGHT HAS LOST SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZED EMBEDDED STORMS...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF 40+ DBZ REMAINS
HIGH ALONG WITH LIGHTNING...BOTH REFLECTIVE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES. AGAIN...CONTENT/CONCENTRATION...REPLENISHMENT...AND
FOCUS/POOLING OF HEAVY RAINFALL PARAMETERS ARE ALL IN PLACE.

LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH 10 AM...THESE PARAMETERS ALMOST ENTIRELY
REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH SIX HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE BEING APPROACHED AND
MORE OF THE WATER TURNING INTO RUNOFF IMMEDIATELY...THIS IS LIKELY
IN ITSELF TO CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES. WHILE THE BOUNDARY HAS TRIED
TO INCH NORTHWARD AND THAT HAS BEEN SEEN SLIGHTLY IN THE RAIN
PLACEMENT...AN APPROACHING DEEP SHORT WAVE FROM WESTERN MO WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN IL INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SO AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS PROBABLE...AND THUS
EVEN SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES FOR A PERIOD. THIS IS MOST
FAVORED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88 ON CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. HAVE
GONE WITH FLOOD WARNINGS BUT FLASH FLOODING AS THIS PASSES ACROSS
MAY BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF LA SALLE AND LIVINGSTON
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ANY URBAN AREAS IMPACTED.

MTF

&&

.DISCUSSION...
338 AM CDT

THIS MORNING...
IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A ROBUST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF
CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUD TOPS BRIEFLY WARMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN IL TO -55C...HOWEVER FURTHER UPSTREAM WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF
CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST MO CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED BACK TO -70 DEG C.
SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY STRETCHED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN IL...INTO CENTRAL IA. NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS REMAINED IN THE LOW/MID 40S...WHILE TO THE
SOUTH TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPR 50S. ACROSS CENTRAL IL TEMPS
HAVE RISEN FURTHER INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM
55-62 DEG. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES PWAT VALUES IN THE WARM SECTOR TO
BE 1-1.5" THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A CONTINUOUS CHANNEL OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST MO NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN IL. PERIODS OF RAINFALL HAVE BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCATIONS RECEIVING OVER 1-2".

DYNAMICS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN STRONGER WITH 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES NEARING 60KTS. SFC WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT DOESN'T APPEAR ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...NONETHELESS
HELICITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING.
WITH THE NEXT WAVE PROGGED TO ARRIVE MID-MORNING...FEEL THAT THIS
WILL BE THE MORE FAVORED TIME FOR AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BULK OF
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AT LEAST IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH A PORTION OF NORTHWEST IN PROGGED FOR MODERATE RISK.
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL JET OF 60 KTS OR
GREATER TO PUSH OVER THE CWFA. THUS IT APPEARS PERHAPS A FEW
DISCRETE STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING...THE MAIN CONCERN IS
THAT A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AND
SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE CWFA MID/LATE MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDDAY WITH A
COUPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND STRETCHING FROM
EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWFA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS AFTN. STRONG LLVL
CONVERGENCE...WILL CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN THE PROGGED HELICITY VALUES
MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS
COULD EASILY OCCUR AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO FORM. MODEL
HODOGRAPHS ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING
STORMS/MESO-VORTICIES. ONCE THE BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWFA TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO COOL...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THIS
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING CONCERNS THIS
AFTN...ISALLOBARIC PRES FALLS AND PROGGED WIND FIELDS IN THE
LLVLS...IT APPEARS FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 38-40KTS WILL OCCUR IN THE
16-00Z TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED
A WIND ADVISORY.

TONIGHT...SEVERE WX CONCERNS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY COME TO
AN END BY 00-06Z TONIGHT AS UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR ARRIVES. 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH OF -6 TO -10 DEG C IS POISED TO ARRIVE WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC PRES RISES. LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THE 500MB VORT
LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE DRY WEDGE WILL PUSH OVERHEAD OF
THE CWFA CLOSER TO 09Z...WHICH WILL BRING A LULL IN THE PRECIP. THEN
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PIVOT EAST ACROSS IOWA INTO
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN ARND DAYBREAK FRI.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVERHEAD.
THE CONCERN WILL BE ON THE LAPSE RATES MIDDAY FRI THAT COULD RESULT
IN SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT IF THE SFC
CAN WARM CREATING A SIZABLE THERMAL DIFFERENTIAL FROM 850MB TO THE
SFC. HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ONTO MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THRU THE DAY
FRI...FEEL THAT THIS WILL END UP BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SFC TEMPS
WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 40S. TROUGH
AXIS ARRIVES OVERHEAD FRI...THEN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES EAST
FRI NIGHT WITH MID-LVL HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
BUILDS IN FRI NIGHT IN THE LLVLS...AIDING IN FURTHER EROSION OF THE
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE SKIES. PRIOR TO THE
THINNING CLOUDS...AND DEPARTURE OF THE MOISTURE...A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FRI EVE. TEMPS WILL RADIATE INTO
THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S FRI NIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT REMAIN THRU
SAT...HOWEVER TEMPS SHUD WARM TO ARND 50 DEG.

BEACHLER

LONG TERM...SUNDAY INTO THURSDAY...OVERALL HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL GENERAL PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT HAVE VERY LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE AREA WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SLOWLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE SPEED WITH WHICH THESE FEATURES
PROGRESS EASTWARD. WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PRECIP CHANCES...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST. WILL KEEP SMALL
POPS FOR NOW BUT SUSPECT THIS WILL NEED ADJUSTMENT. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS WAVE DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH HOWEVER SO
ANY PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT IF THIS STAYS ON TRACK. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT IN A SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVING AND DEEPENING THE LARGER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH WHICH THEN DRIVES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHERE NEAR MISSOURI WHICH THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOOKS
TO OCCUR IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN
PASSES USHERING IN ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR WITH AN ACTIVE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW COMMENCING FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
BEING AHEAD OF THE LOW MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY.

MDB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
350 PM CDT

WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
AND PWATS POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. BASED
ON THE MATT BUNKERS PWAT CLIMATOLOGY...THESE VALUES APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS. SO...FLOODING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH STORM TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE
SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80...AND 3-4
INCHES TO THE NORTH. LATEST LOCAL QPF WOULD SUGGEST AN AREA OF
PCPN OF 4-5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT GIVEN THE
RECORD LEVEL PWATS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THIS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WITH MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE...THIS AMOUNT
OF RAIN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RISES TO MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOOD
LEVEL. IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING...AREAL FLOODING OR
RURAL...SUBURBAN AND URBAN AREAS IS LIKELY...WITH LOW LYING ROADS
AND VIADUCTS FLOODING...AS WELL AS...ROADSIDE DRAINAGE DITCHES AND
DRAINAGE PONDS EXCEEDING CAPACITY. AREAS NOT SEEING FLOODING WILL
AT LEAST SEE AREAS OF STANDING OR PONDING WATER ON ROADS.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TS TONIGHT.

* PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW VIS
  UNDER 2 MILES AT TIMES.

* LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A 50 KT
  SOUTHERLY JET AT 2,000 FT AGL.

* WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER 10 UTC WITH WINDS LIKELY
  GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

* TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN NORTHEASTWARD FROM
MISSOURI ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS ABSOLUTELY IMPRESSIVE...WITH A 50 TO 60KT LOW LEVEL JET
CONTINUALLY PUMPING IN DEEPER MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR RECORD
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS DEEP MOISTURE
AND THE THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THERE COULD BE A VERY SHORT BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY AROUND DAYBREAK AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS AS THE WARM
FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS LOW.

ANY BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY...WOULD BE SHORT LIVED...AS ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE A RETURN BY MID TO LATE MORNING. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS. IT ALSO APPEARS
THAT SEVERAL HOURS OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
FROM MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLOUD
BEARING FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN TRAINING CELLS. THIS HEAVY RAIN
WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY UNDER 2 SM AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY EARLY MORNING AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF 50 KT OF
FLOW ONLY A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE GROUND...SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. THUS WINDS WILL LIKELY
GUST IN THE LOW TO MID 30 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EVEN HIGH
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY MID EVENING. THE
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY UP AROUND 30 KT BEHIND THIS
FRONT...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD END.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAIN.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS  LATER
TODAY.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AND LOWER VIS AND CIGS IN +TSRA ACTIVITY.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

FRIDAY...VFR...CHANCE SHRA WITH LOCAL MVFR.

SATURDAY...VFR...LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING AND REACHING CHI TERMINALS
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.

MONDAY...VFR...CHANCE SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...MVFR LOWERING TO IFR....CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

TRS

&&

.MARINE...
328 AM CDT

IT WILL BE A MESSY DAY ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THE CURRENT NEAR SHORE
GALE WARNING LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE HARD TO GET TO GALES
UP NEAR THE LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE WATERS. THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 40 KT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INDIANA NEAR
SHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE SCREAMING ONLY A COUPLE
HUNDRED FEET OFF THE WATER SURFACE...STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN
WATERS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THIS STRONG MOMENTUM ABLE TO MIX
TO THE WATER SURFACE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRONG WINDS WITH ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING.
WHERE THIS LOW TRACKS THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FOR A
PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERLY GALES VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT GALES OF 35
TO 40 KT ARE THE FAVORED WIND SPEEDS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS WELL. I ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OPEN WATERS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE ON SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
TO BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
     ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
     ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.

IN...FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 AM
     FRIDAY.

LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
     SATURDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM
     THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...7 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM
     THURSDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
430 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
182130-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
430 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013 /530 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW MAY PRODUCE:
  HAIL TO ONE INCH.
  STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
  HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING.
  ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
  THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
  EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES
  WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR
  ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA.
  ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
  CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

  DISCUSSION:

  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
  WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
  CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
  ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO THIS EVENING
  AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT
  NORTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...ALONG THE ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN
  BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
  WILL RIPPLE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...
  MAINTAINING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ELEVATED HAIL
  PRODUCING STORMS WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
  AREA WHERE MORE NEAR SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT CLOSER
  TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE WARM FRONT. ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL
  BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH REPEATED
  TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS LEADING TO AREAS OF
  FLOODING.

PORTIONS OF MANY AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR WHERE
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH AND HAIL LARGER THAN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT...WITH MANY
AREA RIVERS ALREADY AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW
LYING URBAN AREAS.

PORTIONS OF MANY AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR MANY DAYS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN CURRENT
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH AREAS. REPORTS OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
MEASUREMENTS AND HAIL ARE WELCOME.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-182130-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
430 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY WINDS.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TOWARD MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-182130-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
430 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

RATZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1058 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW VILLA PARK         41.90N 87.99W
04/17/2013  M2.31 INCH       DUPAGE             IL   COCORAHS

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE THIS MORNING. RAIN CONTINUES.
            BACKYARD GROUND SATURATED AND WATER NOW POOLING ON
            SURFACE.

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1120 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE NORTH AURORA       41.82N 88.30W
04/17/2013  M1.62 INCH       KANE               IL   COCORAHS

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE THE MORNING...WITH 0.48 INCHES IN
            THE 4 HOURS UP TO REPORT TIME.

1057 PM     FLOOD            3 SE WILMINGTON         41.27N 88.12W
04/17/2013                   WILL               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 INCHES OF STANDING WATER ACROSS THE ROAD ON DONAHUE
            ROAD 1/2 MILE WEST OF SOUTH OLD CHICAGO ROAD.

1100 PM     FLOOD            ELGIN                   42.04N 88.29W
04/17/2013                   KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MINOR FLOODING IN ELGIN AREA. WATER RISING FAST ON CREEKS
            AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. NO ROADWAYS COVERED WITH WATER
            YET.

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1237 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N STREATOR            41.15N 88.83W
04/17/2013  M2.37 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 7AM. RAIN CONTINUES AT A MODERATE CLIP.

1205 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW BURNHAM           41.66N 87.56W
04/17/2013  M2.01 INCH       COOK               IL   COCORAHS

            RAINFALL SINCE WEDNESDAY MORNING. 0.69 INCHES IN THE PAST
            8.1 HOURS.

1214 PM     FLOOD            NEW LENOX               41.52N 87.98W
04/17/2013                   WILL               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MANY STREETS HAVE HIGH STANDING WATER IN THE SOUTHERN
            PORTION OF TOWN.

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ELBURN                  41.89N 88.47W
04/17/2013  M1.52 INCH       KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 330PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STILL RAINING
            MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
109 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT     41.75N 87.79W
04/18/2013  M2.73 INCH       COOK               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HR TOTAL. STILL RAINING.

&&

MDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
204 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 AM     FLOOD            CHICAGO                 41.88N 87.63W
04/18/2013                   COOK               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING REPORTED ON THE DAN RYAN EXPRESSWAY INCLUDING
            NEAR 87TH STREET AND FROM 159TH STREET TO INTERSTATE 57.

&&

MDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
248 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 AM     FLOOD            NILES                   42.03N 87.81W
04/18/2013                   COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ESTIMATED 3-5 INCHES OF WATER ACROSS LEHIGH ROAD
            BETWEEN TOUHY AVE. AND HOWARD ST.

&&

MDB