Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
536 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2013

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 533 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2013

Updated the grids to reflect higher coverage of showers and storms
across SW portions of the CWA. Issued a Flood Advisory for areas
around Bowling Green as some training of showers and storms with
rainfall rates over 2 inches per hour at times will overspread the
area. Will need to watch for Flash Flood Warnings in the region over
the next couple of hours. Will also keep our eye on a cluster of
storms moving into the western fringes of our CWA in a couple of
hours. A few severe reports have come from the strongest storm,
however expect a weakening trend as the cluster moves in. Overall,
will mention numerous showers and storms early this evening in areas
where the biggest clusters are located, with isolated to scattered
coverage elsewhere. Please be aware that very heavy rainfall is
likely with any shower or storm and quick ponding of water on
roadways will occur.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2013

A line of showers and thunderstorms have begun to form along the
frontal boundary, currently draped along the Ohio River. As has been
the case this week, these are efficient rain producers, dumping a
lot of rain in a short amount of time. Traffic cameras in the
Louisville metro along with obs from SDF confirm the reduced
visibilities accompanying these cells. Thankfully, the line has been
moving relatively quickly off to the east-southeast so unless the
line really fills in, setting up a potential training effect,
flooding shouldn't be a major concern, especially in north-central
KY where the rain has been much more hit and miss as of late. If it
is able to hold together and makes its way into the Bluegrass
region, there could be some localized problems since FFG is much
lower there due to the recent heavy rains and already saturated
soils. Unfortunately, the models aren't handling it very well with
the exception of the latest NAM (but its performance this week has
been less than stellar) so its tough to get a solid idea of how this
will play out. While the HRRR doesn't necessarily depict it well,
this has been one of the top performing models under this regime
and its showing scattered cells developing across much of the center
of the commonwealth. Later tonight, a mid-level wave traverses
through and the HRRR grabs onto it, bringing a cluster of showers
and embedded thunderstorms through northern KY and southern IN. This
may be a bit bullish but it would be the last hurrah for the
northern half of the forecast area as the boundary slowly sinks
south (assuming this scenario holds true).

By tomorrow, the focus for convection shifts to the south once again
along the quasi-stationary boundary. As it stands right now, any
storms that fire up during the heat of the day (despite the
continued cloud cover) should wane after sunset Saturday, allowing
for most of the area to remain dry. Under light to calm winds and
lingering low-level moisture, patchy fog could be a factor for not
only tonight (wherever it doesn't rain) but for tomorrow night as
well. Overnight lows for both nights will range from the upper 60s
to the lower 70s from north to south, respectively. Under the
aforementioned cloud cover, highs tomorrow will again be below
normal, primarily in the mid 80s. Expect this tropical-feeling
airmass to remain in place for the entirety of this forecast period.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2013

The start of the long term period will feature generally zonal upper
flow, which will transition to an eastern trough/western ridge by
the end of the long term period.  This pattern shift will allow for
drier conditions and cooler/less humid air by the middle of next
week.

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be draped from southwest to
northeast across southern Kentucky on Sunday.  This will serve as
the focus for showers and thunderstorms to continue, mainly across
southern Kentucky as a shortwave trough rides along the boundary and
brings enhanced vertical motion.  As winds turn northerly across
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky due to incoming high
pressure, think enough dry air will work in to actually keep much of
Sunday dry for those regions.

On Sunday night, the surface high will scoot east as another
shortwave trough dives through the Great Lakes region.  Guidance
suggests this wave will pull the quasi-stationary front back north
which would give much more of central and northern KY decent
rainfall chances.  However, am a bit skeptical of this solution as
the progged system does not appear strong enough to force the front
northward (especially if it's continually being convectively
reinforced further south).  Therefore, the more widespread activity
will likely remain across southern KY, with a general lull in
activity across northern KY and southern Indiana.  Given the
continued moist atmosphere south of the front, localized flooding
will need to continue to be watched especially if areas receive
heavy rainfall through the short term period.

By Monday night into Tuesday, another surface front will approach
from the northwest.  This front looks much more progressive as the
upper-level flow begins to transition to more northwesterly.  As
mentioned in the previous discussion, am a bit skeptical on just how
much moisture will remain ahead of this secondary front, thus will
continue with 30-40 pops as it passes through on Tuesday.  Given
the likely moist bias in guidance, instability along this front will
 be less than currently progged, thus do not expect severe weather.
However, the drier air working in will help support a few healthy
downdrafts, which may lead to some sub-severe gusts in the
heavier storm cores.

The front will clear the region by Tuesday night, allowing Canadian
high pressure to build into the Ohio Valley.  This will bring
welcomed relief from the muggy airmass we have seen of late, as
temperatures fall into the upper 70s/lower 80s with dewpoints in the
50s and lower 60s.  This pleasant airmass will also get rid of any
additional storm potential, with dry weather expected Wednesday
through at least the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2013

Current radar imagery depicts a line of storms attempting to form
along the stationary boundary draped along the Ohio River. If this
line develops, SDF will be the first to see the impacts this
afternoon and if it is able to hold together, LEX could see some
activity in the area early this evening. With the atmosphere
remaining in its warm, moist, and unstable state, showers and
thunderstorms could pop-up wherever a trigger can be found (i.e. the
frontal boundary). Satellite imagery has shown partial clearing in
southern portions of the commonwealth, particularly around the BWG
terminal. Allowing the sun to peak through will increase daytime
heating in that area, allowing for the potential for thunderstorms
to pop-up in the vicinity. Any afternoon showers and thunderstorms
that develop should wane after sunset as the focus for triggering
then shifts to a mid-level wave traversing through overnight. At
this point, confidence is too low as coverage looks to remain
minimal, if at all overnight. Where confidence is a bit higher is
with respect to the low cloud deck and at least MVFR BR impacts to
all three terminals overnight, especially closer to the pre-dawn
hours. As the front slowly moseys southward, a renewed chance for
convection could impact BWG and potentially LEX but the threat looks
to be south of SDF by tomorrow. Challenging forecast to say the
least as the Ohio Valley remains locked in this tropical-like
pattern through early this weekend.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....LG
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
349 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-102000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
349 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013 /249 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AN EXTREMELY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME MINOR FLOODING FROM ANY
STORMS THAT REPEAT OVER A SPECIFIC AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY...YET CHANCES DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH A FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH AND ANOTHER FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

LG/KD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
358 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

KYZ070-092130-
LOGAN KY-
358 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND 40 MPH WINDS
WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS LOGAN COUNTY...

AT 353 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RUSSELLVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  RUSSELLVILLE...
  DENNIS...
  AUBURN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 8702 3695 8685 3688 8668 3675 8674
      3671 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 211DEG 14KT 3680 8686

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
414 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

KYZ071-073-092145-
ALLEN KY-WARREN KY-
414 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED VERY
HEAVY RAIN...AND 40 MPH WINDS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ALLEN COUNTY...

AT 408 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF SCOTTSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM. LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAPID RISES ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  SCOTTSVILLE...
  HALIFAX AND RALEY FORD...
  YESSE AND SETTLE...
  GAINESVILLE AND OAK FOREST...
  CEDAR SPRINGS AND MAYNARD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8636 3686 8642 3690 8615 3689 8613
      3678 8604 3677 8605 3676 8603 3672 8599
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 252DEG 26KT 3676 8627

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
420 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

KYZ070>072-092150-
LOGAN KY-SIMPSON KY-WARREN KY-
420 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED
TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 417 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM THREE SPRINGS TO 11
MILES WEST OF MEMPHIS JUNCTION...AND MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  BOWLING GREEN...
  PLUM SPRINGS...
  MOUNT VICTOR...
  MEMPHIS JUNCTION...
  DELAFIELD...
  GASPER...
  BROWNING...
  WARREN COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT AND HARDCASTLE...
  BUFFALO FORK AND BLUE LEVEL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER
ON LOCAL ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR
HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3680 8678 3699 8675 3708 8632 3688 8632
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 188DEG 15KT 3689 8644 3691 8669

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
447 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

KYZ061-062-071-092215-
BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-WARREN KY-
447 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND 40
MPH WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS WARREN AND SOUTHERN EDMONSON COUNTIES.

AT 445 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF PLUM SPRINGS...AND MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  PLUM SPRINGS...
  MOUNT VICTOR...
  DELAFIELD...
  BROWNSVILLE...
  BOWLING GREEN...
  SUNNYSIDE AND LOVING...
  TUCKERTOWN AND CHALYBEATE...
  SMITHS GROVE AND ARTHUR...
  ROCKY HILL AND CEDAR SPRING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 8644 3718 8654 3725 8616 3708 8607
      3706 8607 3705 8610 3706 8611 3705 8612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 275DEG 25KT 3710 8637

JSD

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