Alert archive / Kentucky / Special Weather Statements in 2013

Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

April 11, 2013Cumberland County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this special weather statement at Apr 11, 2013, 3:21 PM CDT for Cumberland County, Kentucky. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 11, 2013, 3:21 PM CDT (20:21 UTC)
Expired
Apr 11, 2013, 3:50 PM CDT
In force
29 min
Issued by
NWS Louisville, KY

County Cumberland County, KY

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2013-04-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2013-04-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 256 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1408 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
256 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
259 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 11, 2:04 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 11, 2:04 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
304 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

.Short Term (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2013

A strong upper low will move toward the western Great Lakes by dawn
on Friday, with an elongated surface low working northward toward
the lower Great Lakes. A trailing cold front now draped from the
lower Wabash River Valley southward through western KY/TN will slide
very slowly east through our CWA the rest of this afternoon and
evening. As this occurs, the right entrance region of an upper level
jet will continue to slide into better position across our CWA as it
rounds the base of the trough, and a deep moisture plume will
continue to be pumped into the region on a low level jet. This will
allow off and on light to moderate rain showers to continue across
the western portions of the CWA for the next several hours, before
the axis of heaviest rainfall slides east late this evening.
Overall, have slowed the exit of this system down considerably, with
precipitation not ending around Louisville/Bowling Green until just
before Midnight EDT, and at LEX until just after Midnight. Overall
rainfall totals for the event should be between 1-2" total.

Feel any severe threat in our extreme eastern CWA is diminishing as
heavy cloud cover has limited destabilization. Will continue to
watch upstream storms move in from central Tennessee, but all of
these storms have been weakening as they move toward our CWA. Also,
feel that any rumbles of thunder will be confined to mainly the
southern portions of the CWA.

Will keep lingering cloud cover and steady westerly winds behind the
front tonight with lows dipping into the low and mid 40s. Highs on
Friday will struggle only to the mid and upper 50s as steady west
winds between 10 and 20 mph gust up near 30 mph at times. Scattered
to broken cu will also develop in the late morning and early
afternoon which will yield partly to mostly cloudy skies. Have gone
just below MAV/MET guidance for high temperatures on Friday.

Shallow eastern CONUS trough will continue to hold over the Great
Lakes as we head into the weekend, with generally zonal flow across
the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure will build stronger into the
region by dawn on Saturday. This will brink surface winds going
calmer west of I-65 and skies becoming mostly clear. Temperatures
are expected to drop into the 35-40 degree range in many spots, with
a few western decoupled valleys possibly dropping just below 35
degrees. This will bring a very small and isolated threat of frost
formation toward dawn on Saturday. At this point, not too concerned
about this marginal potential for frost.

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2013

Have a couple of concerns in this period. The first is for frost
potential in valleys again Sunday morning, and the second is when
and how long the next front will affect us in the middle of the next
work week.

For the first issue, high pressure will be to our west Saturday
morning and will move over us by evening on its way to West Virginia
by Sunday morning. Model consensus is pretty good on this scenario,
which would lead to calm winds Saturday night. The chink in the
frost potential however is cloud cover. The NAM/GFS/00Z ECMWF each
have a quick-moving upper disturbance crossing the region that
night, which if it happens likely will make it difficult to frost.
We should get a better handle on this potential as we get closer to
the event.

The 00Z Euro brings in some precip Sunday night and Monday behind
some increasing moisture and weak isentropic lift. Temperatures look
to warm quickly with the front Sunday and Monday, going back to
above normal again. Southerly winds will continue to bring warm air
ahead of the next slow-moving/stationary front forecast to set up to
our north Tuesday through Wednesday. That boundary will be the focus
for precip, with chances increasing each day. The GFS and 00Z Euro
as well as the lowres 12Z Euro each have a surface low tracking
across the Midwest Thursday, similar to our setup today, that could
bring another round of heavy rains as well as stronger storms.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2013

A secondary surge in moisture continues to move from SW to NE toward
BWG/SDF. Conditions should waffle between VFR out of and MVFR inside
rain showers as visibilities drop through the afternoon. BWG will
stand the best shot at a few rumbles of thunder near the terminal. A
cold front currently located in the lower Wabash River Valley
southward through the Gulf Coast states will slowly work east
through the afternoon and evening. Expect a wind shift from SSW to
WSW as this front passes, along with lower ceilings solidly into the
MVFR category. There may be a brief period where BWG/SDF could see
IFR just after sunset through around Midnight EDT. Otherwise, rain
will shut off around 8 PM EDT tonight, with perhaps some lingering
sprinkles into the late evening hours. LEX will see an end to rain
with MVFR ceilings prevailing post frontal through the night.

Friday will see a return to dry conditions with gusty west winds
between 10 and 15 mph, gusting up around 20-25 mph. Expect some
scattered to broken cu around 4-5 K feet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........BJS
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 11, 2:23 PM CDT, 58 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>055-121930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-
ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-
WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-
BOYLE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...
VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...
SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...
HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE
323 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013 /223 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE EVENING. IT MAY RAIN HEAVY ENOUGH AT TIMES
TO CREATE BRIEF PONDING ON ROADWAYS. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KYZ026-027-056-057-061>067-070>078-081-082-121930-
OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-
HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-
SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-
RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...
COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
323 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013 /223 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING. MODERATE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AT TIMES...ALONG WITH
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

BJS/RJS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 11, 3:21 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

KYZ075-081-082-112050-
CLINTON KY-CUMBERLAND KY-MONROE KY-
321 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...
AND 45 MPH WINDS...

AT 317 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF CELINA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  BURKESVILLE...
  HESTAND...
  VERNON AND BLYTHE...
  ASHLOCK AND RAYDURE...
  LITTRELL AND PEYTONSBURG...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8580 3663 8581 3687 8541 3665 8518
      3662 8525 3661 8548
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 235DEG 41KT 3654 8563

AMS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 11, 4:40 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKClinton30 min
Apr 11, 5:13 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKMadison32 min
Apr 11, 5:41 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKBourbon, Clark, Nicholas44 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kentucky, 2013Every special weather statement in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.