Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Louisville, KY

June 17, 2013Larue County, Nelson County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 17, 2013, 3:59 PM EDT for Larue County, Nelson County, Kentucky. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 17, 2013, 3:59 PM EDT (19:59 UTC)
Expired: Jun 17, 2013, 4:30 PM EDT
In force: 31 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Larue County, KY, Nelson County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 194 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 684 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -32 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 819 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 20 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 48 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 17, 3:40 PM EDT, 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 17, 3:40 PM EDT, 19 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2013

Broadly cyclonic upper flow over the eastern CONUS will carry a
couple disturbances over the Ohio Valley through Tuesday night.
Moist and unstable low levels will fuel convection, but forecast
confidence is low due to uncertainty in timing of upper features,
and how convection will change the atmosphere for the next
disturbance.

Boundary extending from near Brandenburg to between Danville and
Somerset is serving as a focus for convection. Slow-moving storms
will mostly be heavy rain producers, but FTK has gotten 42 mph gusts
and pea-sized hail out of an isolated cell in the last 30 min. Will
highlight heavy rain and pulse wind potential from storms this
afternoon, but organized SVR is not likely.

Will ramp POPs up south of the boundary to account for activity that
may spread in from western KY/TN as we head into the evening. The
main shortwave will come through after midnight, so will expand POPs
northward for that. Likely POP south of the Parkways, but low-end
chance over southern Indiana as most of the forcing aloft looks to
remain over the Tennessee Valley.

Precip chances continue into Tuesday, especially in east central
Kentucky, in closer proximity to the boundary and surface reflection
of the upper disturbance. Slightly drier NE flow will serve as a
limiting factor, so will taper to lower POPs and warmer afternoon
temps west of I-65.

Upper shortwave trof currently diving out of the Upper Midwest will
finally kick this moisture out by midnight Tuesday night. This is a
slower progression than previously advertised, but there is good
agreement among the synoptic scale models. Therefore have introduced
a chance POP for Tuesday evening, albeit a low-QPF scenario. After
midnight the high over the Great Lakes should be able to build south
in earnest, resulting in a drying trend with below-normal temps and
falling dewpoints.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2013

This period mostly should be quiet. High pressure at the surface
will start off centered over the eastern Great Lakes. Precipitable
waters will fall to under an inch. By week's end ridging aloft
should allow temperatures to warm back into the 90s, at least at
SDF, but drier surface dewpoints should make this heat wave a little
more bearable than the one last week. The ridge aloft will be
centered over the mid Mississippi river valley Sunday and Monday,
which despite increasing precipitable waters, should keep rain
chances low. Best chance, still slight, should be across our east.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2013

Low-confidence forecast especially with regard to convection this
afternoon. Best guess at this point is that the boundary which is
evident by the enhanced Cu from just south and west of FTK,
extending across central Kentucky to near SME and LOZ, will serve as
a focus for afternoon thunderstorms. Wind fields are unimpressive,
but outflow will probably be a little more robust and have the
convergence to fire new storms on the southern flank, and the
WRF-NMM backs this up. Therefore will carry SHRA/VCTS in BWG for a
few hours late this afternoon and into early evening. Probabilities
appear too low to include precip in the SDF or LEX TAFs.

Expect another round of showers and storms late tonight as an
upper-level wave moves east through the Tennessee Valley. Expect
prevailing visibilities to drop to MVFR, but can't rule out brief
IFR conditions under the strongest showers/storms.

Winds will be light through the period, with mainly a southern
component this afternoon and evening, but swinging around to NE
Tuesday morning as a developing surface low passes to our south.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........RAS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 17, 3:51 PM EDT, 8 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
351 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-182000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
351 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 /251 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY MAY ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS OR DAMAGE
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

RAS/RJS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 17, 11:18 AM EDT, 4 hours 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1118 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S NEW ALBANY          38.25N  85.83W
06/16/2013                   JEFFERSON          KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN AT SOUTHWESTERN PARKWAY AND RIVER PARK

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300253

RJS

Local storm report, Jun 17, 11:20 AM EDT, 4 hours 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1120 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE WEST POINT        38.01N  85.94W
06/16/2013                   JEFFERSON          KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN AT DIXIE HIGHWAY AND KATHERINE STATION

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300254

RJS

Local storm report, Jun 17, 11:22 AM EDT, 4 hours 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1122 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LANESVILLE              38.24N  85.98W
06/16/2013                   HARRISON           IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            3 LARGE TREES DOWN IN LANESVILLE INCLUDING BRECKINRIDGE
            RD AT CORYDON RIDGE RD

0508 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW VALLEY STATION     38.13N  85.89W
06/16/2013                   JEFFERSON          KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN AT GREENBELT AND GLOBAL

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE GEORGETOWN        38.27N  85.95W
06/16/2013                   FLOYD              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            15 TREES DOWN IN SOUTH GEORGETOWN

0511 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLEASURE RIDGE PARK     38.15N  85.85W
06/16/2013                   JEFFERSON          KY   PUBLIC

            DOWN POWER LINES AND TREES.

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S NEW ALBANY          38.25N  85.83W
06/16/2013                   JEFFERSON          KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN AT SOUTHWESTERN PARKWAY AND RIVER PARK

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW LOUISVILLE         38.19N  85.78W
06/16/2013                   JEFFERSON          KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN ON EASTERN PARKWAY NEAR BRADLY.

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. MATTHEWS            38.25N  85.64W
06/16/2013                   JEFFERSON          KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO TREES REPORTED DOWN AROUND CHEROKEE PARK.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE WEST POINT        38.01N  85.94W
06/16/2013                   JEFFERSON          KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN AT DIXIE HIGHWAY AND KATHERINE STATION

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300250 LMK1300252 LMK1300251 LMK1300248 LMK1300253
LMK1300249 LMK1300247 LMK1300254

CMC

Special weather statement, Jun 17, 2:52 PM EDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
252 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

KYZ025-028-171920-
HARDIN KY-MEADE KY-
252 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 45
MPH WINDS...

AT 250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRANDENBURG...AND MOVING
NORTH AT 5 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  FORT KNOX AND GARRETT...
  GRAHAMTON...
  MULDRAUGH AND ROCK HAVEN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3797 8606 3796 8605 3797 8604 3796 8590
      3794 8590 3794 8588 3778 8592 3779 8615
      3797 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 183DEG 4KT 3788 8603

RJS

Special weather statement, Jun 17, 3:42 PM EDT, 17 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jun 17, 3:54 PM EDT, 5 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
354 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

KYZ029-038-045-172025-
BULLITT KY-NELSON KY-SPENCER KY-
354 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN AND 45 MPH WINDS BETWEEN
BARDSTOWN AND MOUNT WASHINGTON...

AT 350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF BARDSTOWN. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  BOURBON SPRINGS...
  COXS CREEK AND HIGHGROVE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 8537 3784 8535 3785 8562 3802 8563
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 263DEG 1KT 3792 8550

13

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 17, 2:52 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Meade	28 min
Jun 17, 3:42 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Hardin	28 min
Jun 17, 3:54 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Nelson	31 min
Jun 17, 4:22 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Logan	28 min
Jun 17, 4:40 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Oldham	30 min
Jun 17, 4:51 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Marion	29 min
Jun 17, 5:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Jefferson	29 min
Jun 17, 5:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Breckinridge	30 min
Jun 17, 5:32 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Boyle, Casey, Marion, Taylor, Washington	3 hr
Jun 17, 5:39 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Jefferson	3 hr
Jun 17, 5:44 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Breckinridge	31 min
Jun 17, 7:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Fayette	30 min
Jun 17, 4:18 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Clark	27 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2013 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.