Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
850 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 850 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2013

Line of thunderstorms has developed along the cold front, extending
from southwest Ohio across much of southern Indiana. While it is
difficult to still call it a cap, there is still some very warm
mid-level air over Kentucky, and this is causing storms to struggle
as we look farther west, away from the upper forcing along the IN/OH
border. There will be a window through late morning in which we
could get some strong or marginally severe cells, mainly north of
Interstate 64 with our best chance from southeast Indiana into the
Bluegrass.

Will handle most of this via Statements and, if necessary, warnings.
Will still tweak the AFM/PFM and point-and-click products.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2013

A strong mid level cap kept our weather quiet overnight, and will
likely continue to do so early this morning. However, a cold front
was still to our west at 06Z from low pressure over southern
Michigan through central Illinois to Oklahoma.  Also, a
strengthening upper shortwave trof was swinging southeastward across
northern Illinois.  Until these features clear the region later this
morning, we can't completely let our guard down.  So, will have just
a very small chance of showers/storms for the morning hours.  Behind
the front and upper wave this afternoon even those small rain
chances will evaporate.

We should still have a few hours of heating this morning before the
front moves through, with high temperatures in the lower and middle
80s. This afternoon temperatures should be nearly steady, or may
even fall a degree or two -- quite a feat for mid June!  Northwest
winds behind the front will gust into the 20 to 25 mph range.

Tonight winds will become light and skies clear.  However, no fog is
expected since dry air will be advecting into the region. Low
temperatures should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  Dew points
will drop into the comfortable middle 50s by sunrise.

Friday will be a pretty day as Canadian high pressure builds in from
the north.  With sunny skies in the morning and fair weather cu in
the afternoon, temperatures will top out around 80 degrees.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night - Wednesday)...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Thur Jun 13 2013

A ridge...trough...ridge pattern at 500mb will be in place late
Friday as a deep trough exits New England. Out west, a potent but
small closed low will flatten ridging over the northern Rockies as
it moves east of the Canadian Rockies. By early Monday, this closed
low will elongate along an east-west axis across southern Canada as
moderate 500mb flow undercuts this trough. This will produce a zonal
flow over the lower Ohio Valley for Sunday and Monday.

At the surface, Canadian high pressure over the western Great Lakes
late Friday will be responsible for a dry airmass and seasonably
cool overnight lows both Saturday and Sunday morning. After lows
near 60, highs on Saturday will warm a few degrees over Friday's
highs, with temperatures peaking in the mid 80s. With the proximity
of this high Saturday afternoon expect mostly clear skies in the
morning with a few afternoon fair weather cumulus in the afternoon.
Winds will stay light and variable even into Saturday afternoon.

Southwesterly flow will develop by early Sunday along the backside
of this departing surface high. Gulf moisture, previously restricted
to along the Mississippi River Valley, will move east and bring more
humid weather for Sunday through Tuesday.

Episodic convection is possible Sunday through Tuesday as Gulf
moisture, with PWATs as high as 1.5 inches pools across an area
lying from Missouri through southern Ohio. This area will lie south
of a east-west orientated surface trough roughly across the southern
Great Lakes. Both the GFS and ECMWF develop at least the possibility
of scattered storms early Sunday across southern Indiana, as the
first of several weak waves approaches. Think that most locations
will get at least some rain Monday as moisture is maximized ahead of
a slowly sagging boundary forecast to lie across central Indiana.
Will maintain current likely pops for Monday. A trough is forecast
to move across the Great Lakes late Monday.  This will finally push
a surface boundary southward into the Commonwealth. By late
Tuesday, drier air will begin to filter in from the north. Dry
weather and lower dewpoints are forecast for Wednesday.

Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday may be modified by clouds and
scattered convection. However, temperatures shouldn't stray too far
from normal, with highs in the mid 80s and lows generally in the
upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2013

A strong upper shortwave trof and surface cold front remain to our
northwest, leaving a small chance for convection to still affect
SDF/LEX this morning.  However, strong capping has kept things
very quiet so far as CONVECTION moves by to our north.  Will play
down thunder chances with a simple VCSH through the morning hours.

Really, the main issue for aviation during this TAF period will be
the winds.  Ahead of the approaching front, winds will continue out
of the WSW, occasionally gusting to around 20 knots.  The passage of
the front will bring winds around to the northwest, and gusting into
the 20 to 25 knot range late this morning into this afternoon.
Winds will settle down with sunset tonight.

Another concern is a patch of low clouds currently behind the front
over central Illinois.  Model guidance seems to want to slightly
break up this cloud field and lift it a bit.  For now will bring it
into the TAFs at the lowest possible VFR height, but pilots should
be aware that ceilings may need to be lowered in the TAFs if it
appears that the area of clouds is not breaking up or lifting as it
approaches.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Mesoscale........RAS
Short Term.......13
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
944 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023-026-027-061-062-070>075-141345-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-
BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
BARREN KY-MONROE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...
MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE
944 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013 /844 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KYZ024-025-028>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-076>078-081-082-141345-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-
TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-
SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-
MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-
CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...
VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...
SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...
HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...
MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
944 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013 /844 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
64.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD RELAY REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS OR DAMAGE TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

RAS/13

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
956 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

KYZ061-062-071-131525-
BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-WARREN KY-
956 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 951 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
A LINE OF STORMS NEAR MORGANTOWN...AND MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  MORGANTOWN...
  HORSEMILL AND JETSON...
  ROUNDHILL AND REEDYVILLE...
  SEGAL AND ASPHALT...
  WINDYVILLE AND NICK...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27
AND 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE AWARE THAT A GUST FRONT PRECEDING THIS STORM WILL GENERATE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE
INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 8691 3733 8635 3732 8633 3711 8624
      3706 8689 3707 8690 3709 8691 3712 8690
      3713 8692 3718 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1455Z 280DEG 41KT 3724 8658

JDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1058 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

KYZ041-046>049-054>057-067-131530-
BOYLE KY-CLARK KY-FAYETTE KY-GARRARD KY-JESSAMINE KY-LINCOLN
KY-MADISON KY-MARION KY-MERCER KY-WASHINGTON KY-
1058 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...
AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 1054 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WINCHESTER TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LANCASTER TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BARDSTOWN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  WINCHESTER...
  STANFORD...
  SPRINGFIELD...
  RICHMOND...
  LANCASTER...
  KIDDVILLE AND HAGGARD...
  UNION CITY AND NEEDMORE...
  PERRYVILLE AND PINE RIDGE...
  BRUMFIELD AND WHITES...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 101 AND 98.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 76 AND 99.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE
INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3783 8400 3783 8410 3781 8407 3778 8410
      3774 8407 3764 8412 3756 8409 3751 8426
      3753 8434 3748 8436 3757 8512 3778 8534
      3784 8488 3788 8476 3786 8477 3784 8467
      3786 8456 3811 8407 3794 8396
TIME...MOT...LOC 1458Z 308DEG 32KT 3800 8406 3770 8460
          3775 8532

EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1105 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N SHELBYVILLE         38.28N  85.23W
06/13/2013                   SHELBY             KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300235

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1118 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LEXINGTON               38.04N  84.46W
06/13/2013                   FAYETTE            KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER POLE BLOCKING THE
            INTERSECTION OF NEWTOWN PIKE AND PLANTATION DRIVE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300236

RL