Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Louisville, KY

936 
WWUS53 KLMK 311803
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
203 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

KYC103-311812-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-130531T1805Z/
HENRY KY-
203 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN HENRY COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 205 PM EDT/105 PM CDT/...

THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE 
WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE 
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3857 8507 3858 8504 3856 8500 3851 8502
      3852 8498 3851 8497 3849 8499 3847 8496
      3839 8514 3848 8509 3859 8513 3860 8512
      3860 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 228DEG 26KT 3865 8499 3858 8496
          3851 8498

$$

JSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Fri May 31 2013

Updated the forecast to better define the areas that are and should
receive rain/sct t-storms this morning.  From radar trends over the
last several hours, the broad area of rain and sct t-storms over
southwest IN/western KY will slowly inch toward the I-65 corridor
throughout the morning hours.  By noon or early afternoon this line
will weaken and fizzle somewhere near I-65 or perhaps even slightly
west of I-65.  Only garden variety embedded storms are expected for
the rest of the morning.

By this afternoon, areas that didn't receive rains this morning
(mainly east of I-65) should warm up and destabilize with convection
popping as early as 1 or 2 pm.  According to model soundings, the
potential is still there for strong storms (perhaps winds up to 40
mph and small hail) but severe potential looks slim for this
afternoon/evening at this point.

Also, decreased high temps in areas along and west of I-65 due to
morning rains and cloud cover.

&&

.Short Term (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 31 2013

Another active night ongoing in the Mississippi Valley, while moist
southerly flow continues to create an increasingly juicy atmosphere
over central Kentucky and southern Indiana. The next couple of days
will feature unsettled weather with periodic bouts of showers and
thunderstorms, but forecast confidence is low with regard to the
timing of any of this precip.

Leading edge of convection extends from southern Illinois into
extreme western Tennessee, with a 40-45 kt low-level jet feeding
north into the Ohio Valley ahead of it. Believe these showers and
storms will continue to progress ENE, and could affect areas north
of the WK Parkway and west of I-65 by daybreak, albeit in a
weakening state. Will have at least high-end chance POPs in this
area, with likely POPs over southern Indiana.

Afternoon convective potential will hinge on how far east the
morning activity can get before it falls apart, and how much debris
cloudiness is left behind. At the very least, expect more clouds
than sun, with max temps limited to the mid 80s. That should still
be enough to fuel at least scattered afternoon storms, but it will
be difficult to say where the better chances are until we see where
the boundaries lay out. Highest afternoon POPs will be over the
eastern sections that are less likely to be affected by morning
storms.

Once again expect a minimum in convective activity this evening,
with later POPs dependent on where the next MCS is generated. GFS
shows a healthy 40 kt low-level jet punching up into the Wabash
Valley by 06Z Sat, which would provide plenty of fuel for any
complex that is generated ahead of the front in southern Illinois.
For this reason, will ramp POPs up before daybreak Saturday, with
the highest chances and QPF over southern Indiana. Will continue
this into Saturday morning, and actually will maintain likely POPs
over southern Indiana all day as the front will be close enough for
storms to continue to ride along the boundary.

Given the influence of the nocturnal convection, and likely
extensive cloud cover during the daytime hours, instability will be
fairly limited. However, there is at least some damaging wind
threat, primarily over southern Indiana where dynamics are more
favorable for multicells and bowing segments, and anywhere that can
destabilize in the heat of the afternoon. Heavy rainfall may well be
the biggest threat, especially along and north of the Ohio River,
where average QPF will push 1 inch but locally higher amounts are
likely.

.Long Term (Saturday Night- Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri May 31 2013

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a broad trough aloft across the Great Lakes.  A rather
potent shortwave trough will round the base of this upper trough
through the day on Saturday, causing it to take on more of a
negative tilt by Saturday evening.  This upper-level system will
quickly push east by the end of the weekend, allowing for a zonal
flow regime across the Ohio Valley through the first part of next
week.

Quite a bit of uncertainty still remains on severe thunderstorm
potential Saturday evening into the first part of the overnight
hours.  The magnitude of the severe threat largely hinges on the
activity that develops Saturday afternoon across the region (see
short term section above) and its effect on the available
instability Saturday evening into the overnight hours when the main
forcing arrives.

Nonetheless, even the lower end of the 31/00Z guidance suite still
paints about 800 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front Saturday evening,
with the more bullish guidance (GFS) depicting upwards of 1,200
J/kg.  With large-scale ascent quickly increasing due to the
approach of the aforementioned shortwave, convection should
develop/intensify along the boundary Saturday evening.  This passing
wave will also help to accelerate the surface cold front
southeastward, aiding in convegence along it and helping to force a
linear mode of convection.  The kinematic energy certainly will be
enough for storm organization, as 0-6km bulk shear values increase
to 40-50 knots.  Additionally, a low-level jet of 35-45 knots will
enhance low-level shear values, with 0-1km bulk shear expected to
increase to 30-35 knots by Saturday evening.  With the expected
linear mode, damaging winds will be the dominant threat.  However,
the large 0-1km shear values and looping hodographs (especially in
the lowest levels) will also support an isolated tornado risk.  At
this time, a widespread severe weather outbreak is not expected.
However, there certainly exists the potential for some severe storms
Saturday evening into the overnight hours, especially if more
instability than currently expected develops Saturday
afternoon/early evening ahead of the front. As it stands now, the
highest severe threat Saturday evening into the early overnight
hours will be
across southern Indiana into central Kentucky.

The front and associated precipitation will quickly push east of the
region by Sunday evening.  Cooler and drier conditions will work in
for the first part of next week.  Monday looks to be the coolest day
of the long term, as high will only reach the middle 70s.  A
shortwave ridge will begin to slide into the region Tuesday into
Wednesday, helping push temperatures back into the upper 70s and
lower 80s.

An upper low will meander into the Northern Plains Wednesday.
Several weak and tough-to-time shortwave troughs will round the base
of this low, ejecting into the Midwest and Ohio Valleys by late in
the workweek.  Will keep slight chance to chance pops going
Wednesday night through Thursday until confidence increases.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 655 AM EDT Fri May 31 2013

Forecast remains quite uncertain with regard to timing of
thunderstorm activity. As of 10Z, a healthy low-level jet is feeding
a band of showers and thunderstorms, with the leading edge from just
north of TUP to near OWB to IND. This activity is moving NE, so it
will still take some time to even get into BWG or SDF. Best guess is
that will happen either side of 13Z, but storms will be in a
weakening state by then, and the line will be ragged enough that we
can't time any direct impacts. Therefore will go with VCTS for the
latter part of the morning. Ceilings will remain VFR, but just
barely so. Brief MVFR ceiling and vis will be possible if
thunderstorms directly affect either airport, but too brief to
mention in the TAFs. With the northward component of motion, and the
way the southern part of the complex has struggled as it moves east,
will not bring this into LEX.

Between a moisture-rich and boundary-rich environment, there is
decent potential for afternoon redevelopment in spite of the lack of
instability. Best prospects will be in LEX, which is the only place
we will include VCTS this afternoon. Could see gusts close to 20 kt
out of the south, depending on how many mesoscale boundaries disrupt
the synoptic wind field.

After a lull in the evening, expect thunderstorm potential to
increase well after midnight as an MCS rolls in from southern
Illinois. Confidence is still low to moderate at best, so will
handle it with VCTS for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........AMS
Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........KD
Aviation.........RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1006 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-011415-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1006 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013 /906 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST INTERSTATE 65 THIS
AFTERNOON. A THIRD ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ANY STORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING...WHILE THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. A FEW STORMS SATURDAY EVENING
MAY ALSO BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

RAS/KD/AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

KYZ030>034-038-045-311755-
HENRY KY-JEFFERSON KY-NELSON KY-OLDHAM KY-SHELBY KY-SPENCER
KY-TRIMBLE KY-
109 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...
AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 103 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LA GRANGE TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF TAYLORSVILLE TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TAYLORSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  TAYLORSVILLE...
  SHELBYVILLE...
  NEW CASTLE...
  LA GRANGE...
  RUSSELL CORNER AND YODER...
  VEECH AND TARASCON...
  PENDLETON AND JERICHO...
  SULPHUR AND SLIGO...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 28 AND 38.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 71 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 17 AND 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3836 8507 3813 8509 3788 8546 3809 8546
      3810 8543 3812 8543 3811 8545 3811 8546
      3840 8550 3859 8520 3860 8510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 231DEG 24KT 3837 8540 3817 8537
          3803 8539

AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
130 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

INZ079-KYZ032>035-038-039-311800-
ANDERSON KY-FRANKLIN KY-HENRY KY-JEFFERSON IN-SHELBY KY-SPENCER
KY-TRIMBLE KY-
130 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
50 MPH WINDS...WILL MOVE ACROSS SHELBY...TRIMBLE...HENRY...AND INTO
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 126 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MADISON TO NEW
CASTLE TO TAYLORSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  TAYLORSVILLE...
  SHELBYVILLE...
  NEW CASTLE...
  BEDFORD...
  MADISON...
  BROOKSBURG AND NORTH PLEASUREVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 8519 3874 8526 3873 8532 3859 8521
      3860 8508 3857 8507 3857 8501 3851 8502
      3852 8498 3849 8499 3846 8494 3847 8492
      3844 8492 3842 8488 3804 8500 3801 8539
      3836 8528 3878 8544 3884 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 253DEG 27KT 3872 8529 3837 8518
          3805 8526

JSD